Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire: Kris Bubic, Max Meyer emerging as potential difference makers

The problem with trying to make any grand declarations at this point in the Fantasy Baseball season is, you're usually trying to make those declarations based on the strength of one or two performances, and that's an easy way to get things wrong.

But here's the other problem: If you wait until you have enough information about a player before you make your move on them, you're going to end up missing out on at least some of the most interesting, important players to add on waivers. You've gotta take some blind-ish leaps of faith to hit on those breakouts, so before we get to the top waiver-wire targets, here are three early-season pitching breakouts I'm planting a flag on – at least to be worth rostering in all leagues, if not to be difference makers all season:

• Max Meyer, Marlins (54%) – Meyer's second start of the season Friday against the Braves highlighted both the upside and the downside he'll bring to the table. On the good side: Eight strikeouts in a quality start, on the strength of 15 swinging strikes as he continues to pitch with better velocity and shape on his entire arsenal. He looks excellent, and I wasn't sure that'd be something we could say about him after his underwhelming return from Tommy John surgery last season. And then, of course, there's the downside: Despite pitching well, he lost 10-0 to a previous winless Braves team. The Marlins aren't going to back him up with many runs, they're going to put a mediocre defense behind him, and the bullpen tasked with protecting the rare lead isn't very good either. Whatever value Meyer creates, he's going to have to do it on his own. But with a fastball sitting at 95.3 mph and generating solid whiffs, plus a slider that looks better than ever, Meyer does look like someone who can help on his own merits.

• Kris Bubic, Royals (76%) – As of this writing, Bubic is toward the end of his second start of the season, and he's looking excellent once again, limiting the Orioles to four hits and a walk over six shutout innings with six strikeouts. Maybe it'll all fall apart as he tries to put the finishing touches on this start, but based on what we've seen through his first 11 innings, Bubic looks pretty awesome. He has maintained most of the velocity gains from his time in the bullpen last season, and continues to do a good job generating whiffs with his changeup, too. It's a full arsenal, and while he doesn't have overpowering stuff or a long track record of success, I'm mostly buying into Bubic as a viable starting Fantasy option moving forward. And I might be underselling the upside.
• Jordan Hicks, Giants (51%) – We haven't even seen a second start from Hicks yet as I'm writing this, so there's even more risk here. But at least based on that first outing earlier this week, he looked like a must-roster player to me. Mostly because he looked like the reliever version of himself for the first time as a starter. He sat at 98 mph on average in that start, up 3.5 mph from last season and even up 2.4 mph from where he was last April. We've never seen Hicks throw that hard as a starter, and if it's at all sustainable, there's plenty of upside here – Hicks has always been tough to barrel up, which helps create a solid performance floor, while the expansion of his arsenal in recent years with his splitter and sweeper gives him multiple swing-and-miss pitches to lean on. Put it all together, and there's a lot to get excited about here.

Before we get to the rest of the waiver-wire targets for Week 3, some quick thoughts on Rockies pitching prospect Chase Dollander, who made his MLB debut Sunday. The Rockies did him no favors by having his debut come at home, but Dollander acquitted himself well enough, striking out six while generating 10 swings and misses on 79 pitches. The stuff looked good even in the thin air in Colorado, but that home park may always hold him back, as it did in this one, where he was tagged for four runs over his five innings of work.

Dollander is one of the most talented pitching prospects in the game, and someone who should be a relatively high priority for Fantasy, though not a must-add. The hope is, he more or less pitches like this at home and then pitches like an ace away from Coors, making him a useful Fantasy option in the long run when you add it all up together. I'd put him below each of the previous three names here, but if you're just looking for upside and none of them are available, I would definitely add Dollander – and then make sure he's planted firmly on my bench for his upcoming matchup against the Padres.

But if he dominates that one, it could be full speed ahead.

Here's who else we're looking at adding across every other position heading into Week 3:

Week 3 Waiver TargetsCatchers

Sean Murphy, Braves (34%) – Ivan Herrera was looking like the must-add catcher of the first week or so of the season, but he suffered an injury Sunday that makes his status look pretty hazy – he had to be helped off the field with some kind of lower-body injury, unfortunately. That's a bummer, because Herrera looks like he can be an actual difference maker at a position where you're mostly hoping to get by. I'm still hopeful Murphy can be a difference maker too, and he's back from the IL after recovering from a fractured rib cage. He'll make his season debut this week, and if you're looking for help at the position, he's as good a bet as any this widely available.

Deep-league target: Endy Rodriguez, Pirates (7%) – Right now, this is just a bet on talent and opportunity. Rodriguez has done pretty much nothing in the early going, hitting .130/.259/.217 in his first eight games. But he's basically playing everyday with Spencer Horwitz on the IL, and that's rare for a No. 2 catcher candidate.

First Base

Nate Lowe, Nationals (52%) – Lowe was a sneaky-good pickup for the Nationals, especially if you think his massive early-season strikeout rate is mostly a fluke – and I do. He's not a superstar hitter, but he's a solid one who is going to drive in plenty of runs in a solid spot in the lineup. There's been some extra swing-and-miss in his game so far, but he's also crushing the ball, with a 97.5 mph average exit velocity, so I won't complain too much.

Deep-league target: Matt Mervis, Marlins (5%) – The Marlins are giving Mervis an extended look, something he struggled to get in Chicago despite putting up big power numbers at Triple-A. He homered twice Saturday against the Braves and has some upside as a cheap source of power.

Second base

Jorge Polanco, Mariners (31%) – You don't have to go that far back into the past to see a very useful version of Polanco – in a half season in 2023, he hit .255/.335/.454 with pretty close to a 30-homer, 100-RBI pace. He struggled to stay healthy since, but he's healthy right now and off to a strong start, so let's see if he can keep it up.

Deep-league target: Brendan Rodgers, Astros (4%) – Given Rodgers' typically pretty underwhelming production while playing half his games at Coors Field, I'm pretty skeptical about him being a useful Fantasy option in Houston. But he's off to a solid start with the Rockies while generating a bit more elevation with his swing, so if you're desperate for a middle infielder in a deeper league, take a look.

Third base

Maikel Garcia, Royals (70%) – Garcia spent the offseason working on his swing, hoping to stay back rather than lunging at the ball, with the hopes of being able to drive it better. So far, so good, as he's hitting .357/.400/.679 with five extra-base hits in his first nine games. Garcia has always had an intriguing mix of raw power, contact skills, and speed, and if he's learning to put that power into play in games more, he could be a very useful Fantasy option in any format. Remember: He stole 37 bases last season!

Deep-league target: Oswaldo Cabrera, Yankees (8%) – There really aren't many low-rostered third baseman making much noise right now. You could hope someone like Graham Pauley gets hot, given his everyday role in the Marlins lineup until Connor Norby is active, but he just hasn't given us much reason to get excited with his opportunity. Cabrera is at least hitting for contact in the early going, and in a pretty good Yankees lineup, that could be enough in some deeper leagues.

Shortstop

Jacob Wilson, Athletics (49%) – The hope here is that Wilson can be a Luis Arraz clone, and his 7.4% career strikeout rate through his first 37 games is a good sign in that regard. However, there's also some hope that he can find a bit more upside than Arraez with a swing that might be a bit more geared for pull-side power than Arraez's. We've seen a few short homers barely clear the fences so far, and if there's even double-digit homer upside here, he's going to be a pretty useful Fantasy option because he might hit .300.

Jordan Lawlar, Diamondbacks (34%) – The fact that the Diamondbacks didn't use Ketel Marte's hamstring injury as an excuse to call Lawlar up suggests either that the injury isn't too serious or that they want Lawlar to get a bit more season down in the minors before calling him back up. The latter would be perfectly reasonable, given both how much time he has missed with injury and the fact that they are seemingly grooming him to be a utility infielder, with starts coming at three infield positions so far. That's probably Lawlar's best chance to playing time in the majors, and he still has plenty of upside whenever he does get the call, if you're looking for a stash.

Deep-league targets: Max Muncy, Athletics (10%) – The problem with shortstop going back to draft season is that, while it was deep with impact bats, there just isn't much usable depth on the lower end. Which is why we're highlighting a guy with a .115/.115/.269 line in his first eight MLB games. Muncy has some upside, and the hope is he'll get going with more reps. But if you're in a deeper league and need SS help, there just aren't many good options, unfortunately.

Outfield

Zac Veen, Rockies (24%) – I guess Veen really needed another week of seasoning to prove himself. The Rockies sent Veen down despite a successful spring, but when he kept raking in Triple-A Albuquerque, they saw enough to justify a callup. I won't pretend to understand the thought process behind anything the Rockies do, I'll just be happy to see a talented young player get a chance on a team with precious few reasons to be excited. Veen is a former top prospect who has had his climb to the majors derailed several times by injuries, but through it all has maintained plus athleticism and solid raw power. It's an exciting skill set, and if Veen is finally healthy and putting it all together, he has some serious Fantasy upside. I think in H2H points leagues, you can probably wait to add him, but Veen should be a high priority target in all category-based leagues.

Jordan Walker, Cardinals (55%) – It might be happening. Walker is making a ton of contact and hitting the ball hard, with a 19.2% strikeout rate and 93.2 mph average exit velocity. Oh, and he's elevating the ball more consistently than in the past, too, with a 12 degree average launch angle on his batted balls. None of this is a guarantee of superstardom, but given Walker's prodigious natural ability, I'll take any sign to be optimistic about. The upside is worth chasing here as he works to figure it out.

T.J. Friedl, Reds (58%) – When healthy, Friedl has been a pretty useful Fantasy option in recent years, and he's healthy right now. He makes a lot of contact, has good plate discipline, and plays in a park well-suited to maximize his limited raw power. He's off to a solid start, and hopefully there's more stolen bases to come – though his sprint speed data so far this season is down to the ninth percentile, which is pretty concerning, even in a small sample size. I'll bet on that bouncing back with how good he's looking otherwise.

Max Kepler, Phillies (25%) – Kepler hasn't done a ton of damage, but if you watch his trips to the plate, he looks close. He's drawing walks and swinging at the right pitches, even generating a very strong 91.6 mph average exit velocity. He's an everyday bat in a good lineup and ballpark, and the early returns suggest he's found some of his pre-injury form after struggling in 2024. As Scott White notes in his Week 3 sleeper hitters column, Kepler has some good matchups to take advantage of this week, so the breakout could be coming.

Deep-league targets

Sal Frelick, Brewers (24%) – With how often he makes contact, Frelick should be a batting average standout, and that's what we're seeing in the early going. Add in plus speed on a team that likes to run, Frelick could be a solid low-end starter in categories leagues.

Kyle Stowers, Marlins (6%) – Like Mervis, he's an everyday player with a good track record of high-minors production. He probably won't matter in too many mixed leagues, but an everyday player with even nominal upside is pretty much must-roster in an NL-only league.

Starting pitcher

Brady Singer, Reds (75%) – Singer continues to expand his arsenal, throwing his new cutter 16% of the time and generating solid results with it. It's not likely to be a killer pitch for him, but giving hitters another shape and velocity band to look at probably isn't a bad thing, given how effective his slider has been over the years. He's mostly just trying to avoid damage on the fastballs so he can put hitters away with the slider, and if the cutter helps him get there, that's not a bad thing. So far, so good, with a 2.25 ERA and 30.6% strikeout rate, and he gets the Pirates, Mariners, and Marlins in his next three starts. That's pretty good!

Eduardo Rodriguez, Diamondbacks (60%) – Rodriguez really isn't doing much different this season, so if you're skeptical about the 17 strikeouts in 10.1 innings, I don't blame you. But I will remind you that Rodriguez was a must-start pitcher in 2023, posting a 3.30 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, and he's backed up by a very good supporting cast, so he should be at least worth using against the right matchups. And the schedule is on his side, as he has the Brewers, Marlins, and Rays lined up for his next three starts.

Relief pitcher

Luke Jackson, Rangers (56%) – In the long run, Jackson probably isn't going to hang on to this job. But if you're worried about that, you already missed out on five saves in the first two weeks of the season. When you commit to streaming for saves, you have to commit to anyone who gets the job, but especially anyone on a good team, regardless of talent. I think Jackson is just a decent talent, but he's clearly the closer for a team that might win 90–plus games, and that means he needs to be rostered much more widely than this.

Anthony Bender, Marlins (9%) – Bender has all of the performance concerns that Jackson does, but on a team that might be lucky to win 70 games. So his roster rate should be much lower. That said, I feel pretty confident he is the closer, despite just the one save so far – it was the only save the Marlins have had to date. He's not a difference maker, and might only get 25 saves even if he is the closer all season long, so you'll have to decide how much you need saves. If you're desperate, though he's there.