Experts' picks: Who will win the US Open?

The US Open kicks off Sunday, with defending champions Aryna Sabalenka and Jannik Sinner both in the draw. Will Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz meet again in the final, as they did at both the French Open and Wimbledon, winning one apiece? Or could Novak Djokovic make it to the final -- and even win a record 25th Grand Slam title?

Iga Swiatek won Wimbledon earlier this summer, and may have momentum on her side. Or could Coco Gauff, the 2023 US Open and 2025 French Open champion, win it all in New York?

We polled our experts for their picks -- and best betting tips.

Who do you think will win the women's singles title, and why?

Pam Shriver: Swiatek seems to have solved the riddle of faster courts by winning Wimbledon in dominant fashion, then a month later also winning in Cincinnati. Her ground strokes seem more compact, which is helping her gain control in faster conditions. Swiatek's footwork is impeccable and her serve has improved. She will win her second US Open championship and her seventh major singles title.

John Isner: I will take Swiatek. It's a very chalky pick, but she's playing the best of anyone right now and has found her game very nicely on fast courts.

D'Arcy Maine: It's hard to argue with momentum and perhaps no one has more of it this summer than Swiatek. Since her unbelievable performance at Wimbledon for her sixth major title, she has completely turned around her season. She became the Cincinnati champion Monday and never dropped a set en route to the trophy.

She seems to have rediscovered the dominant hard-court form that propelled her to the 2022 US Open title and might be more confident than ever. She already got some experience on Ashe this week in the mixed doubles event, in which she took home runner-up honors with Casper Ruud, and I fully expect her winning ways to continue throughout the fortnight.

Bill Connelly: Sabalenka has been too good this year to not win a Slam -- she's 67-13 for the year, and she's 41-5 in her last seven Slams overall. Swiatek is smoking hot, but Sabalenka remains the surest thing in the sport.

That said, Sabalenka's draw is rugged, with potential matches against Leylah Fernandez (2021 finalist), Clara Tauson (the only player to beat Swiatek in the past two months) and Elena Rybakina (who beat her in straight sets in Cincinnati) all awaiting before the semifinals. Sabalenka will need to find fifth gear pretty quickly, but we're going to believe in the power of consistency and go with the defending champ.

Simon Cambers: From the moment Swiatek changed her return position against Rybakina in the French Open, she has regained the confidence that made her the world's best player. Her victory at Wimbledon, helped by an adjustment in her footwork with coach Wim Fissette, was outstanding and she has picked up where she left off, winning in Cincinnati. She looks happy and confident and that spells big trouble for her rivals, all of whom have issues, to varying degrees. Sabalenka has dipped slightly from her form of last year, Gauff has serving problems and Rybakina is still searching for consistency. Madison Keys could threaten but this one looks like Swiatek's to lose.

Who do you think will win the men's singles title, and why?

Shriver: It's impossible to pick anyone else besides Sinner or Alcaraz to win the US Open given their dominance at the majors the past two years. However, both have early challenges with Sinner scheduled to play Alexei Popyrin in the second round, and Alcaraz facing Reilly Opelka in the first round.

I have a feeling we won't have a Sinner-Alcaraz final, but it's hard to predict where the upset will occur. I am going to stick with Sinner to defend his title and remain the best hard-court player on the planet.

Isner: Sinner. When 100% fit, he's the best hard-court player in the world.

Connelly: Sinner has won 21 straight matches at hard-court Slams, and if he had won one of his three championship points against Alcaraz in Paris, he'd be heading to New York having won the last four Slams overall. That's absurd.

Sinner has the highest win percentage in the world on both his serve (71.5%) and return (42.8%) this year. He has achieved a ridiculously high cruising altitude, and until another potential match against Alcaraz in the finals, his toughest opponent might be the bug he was fighting in the Cincinnati final this past week.

Cambers: As long as he has recovered from the virus that caused him to quit in that final, Sinner is a strong favorite for me. Yes, Alcaraz had his number for a while until Sinner beat him at Wimbledon, but even before that, Sinner always seemed to have the edge on hard courts. Nothing has changed in that regard, and though the title will surely be between the two of them -- and though Alcaraz's highest point is probably higher than Sinner's -- Sinner's consistency is likely to see him to another Slam. Ben Shelton has the game to cause a big upset but probably not two, so Sinner is the man.

Maine: After the Cincinnati final and ahead of the draw coming out, I was leaning ever so slightly toward Alcaraz. But Sinner's virus symptoms will likely be behind him once play begins, and Alcaraz has a particularly brutal draw -- starting with Opelka in the first round and followed by potential meetings with Daniil Medvedev in the fourth round, Shelton in the quarters and Djokovic in the semis.

I, too, think this is Sinner's title to win yet again. His draw, while not exactly easy, is considerably more favorable, and when healthy, he has looked unbeatable this year, including in Cincinnati last week. Even if Alcaraz were to make it to the final, as Simon pointed out, Sinner has the edge on hard court and would be the favorite entering the match.

Which player outside of the top 10 could surprise in the next two weeks?

Shriver: Victoria Mboko is my player outside the top 10 to watch. In the history of women's tennis, fast-improving teenagers have won their share of major titles -- from Chris Evert and Tracy Austin of the 1970s to Steffi Graf and Monica Seles in the 1980s to Serena and Venus Williams in 1999 then 2000, respectively. Who can forget how International Tennis Hall of Fame inductee Maria Sharapova swept everyone aside to win the 2004 Wimbledon title at just 17? Mboko has the power and presence to make a deep run at a major.

Based on emotions and desire to see a U.S. man win a major again, I am picking Frances Tiafoe to make another deep run at the US Open. Seeing my fellow Marylander mature more each year, plus adding variety to his all-court game, Tiafoe is going to ride the wave of his New York popularity and be a threat to pull off some big upsets.

Isner: Medvedev. He has been playing poorly lately and has a tough first round, but if he can get through that ... look out. And Veronika Kudermetova. She has lots of momentum from Cincinnati, and I really like her game.

Connelly: Let's ride the hot hand and go with Mboko. Granted, she has only played in five Slam matches ever and won't turn 19 until Tuesday, but if you watched her in Montreal, you saw someone who can bludgeon a tennis ball like almost no one else on the tour, and problem-solve on the fly. She beat four former Slam champions, and she ran Gauff right off the court, 6-1, 6-4. But in both the semis against Rybakina and the final against Naomi Osaka she began the match tight and had to battle back after dropping the first set. That she pulled it off was jarring and impressive. She's ridiculously mature for her age, she can completely wear down opponents with her body blows, and I'm not going to bet against her making a run in New York.

Cambers: On the men's side, it's quite convenient -- for these purposes -- that Ruud has dropped out of the top 10 lately. The Norwegian looked like he was having a lot of fun in the mixed doubles and his polish is there. As a former runner-up, he has shown he can play on this surface. His confidence is much higher than it was earlier in the year and it would be no real surprise should he go deep.

In the women's event, Karolina Muchova and Osaka are the players to watch. Muchova is regaining top form again, and once she gets past Williams in Round 1, no one will want to face her. Osaka, too, looks rejuvenated after a coaching change. On her favorite surface at arguably her favorite event, she could get on a roll.

Maine: My immediate answer was Mboko -- and to add to the already eloquent case for her here, the US Open crowd is going to love her -- but just to change it up, unseeded Emma Raducanu looks to be on the verge of something special again. After facing a qualifier in the first round, she has a tough draw (likely facing No. 24 seed Kudermetova in the second round and 2022 Wimbledon champion Rybakina in the third), but she has proved this summer just how close she is to being able to beat the top players. Just ask Sabalenka. After a close battle at Wimbledon in July, Raducanu pushed the world No. 1 to a third-set tiebreak in a match that lasted over three hours in Cincinnati. While I don't see her winning this tournament or even going deep in the second week, the 2021 champion does seem poised soon for another career breakthrough. Will it happen again in New York?

Betting tips

Odds at time of publication. For the most up-to-date women's tournament and men's tournament odds, visit ESPN BET.

Who is your women's pick to win?

Pamela Maldonado: Given the form shift since Roland Garros, Swiatek (+250) makes sense. After losing to Sabalenka in Paris, Swiatek has been dialed in, winning the Wimbledon title and 15 of her past 17 matches overall while looking more comfortable on hard courts than ever. Her playing style fits Flushing Meadows: heavy topspin forehand, elite movement and improved first-serve efficiency. Mentally, she's back to dictating points instead of reacting, and her balanced draw helps. If she holds her serve like she has since July and maintains her break conversion rate, Swiatek has the cleanest path to the title.

Andre Snellings: Sabalenka (+275). The defending US Open champion enters the tournament ranked No. 1 in the world and has reached the final in five straight hard-court Grand Slams, including wins at the Australian Open (2023, 2024) and the 2024 US Open. Her power game is so difficult to defeat on hard courts. Sabalenka hasn't won a major this season, losing in the finals at both the Australian Open and French Open, then in the semifinals at Wimbledon, but she is 23-4 on hard courts this season and it feels like she's due to break through in New York.

Who is your men's pick to win?

Maldonado: Sinner (+105). He deserves his favorite status, but it comes with caveats. His efficiency is elite, winning 79% of first-serve points, holding serve an absurd 91% of the time and leading the field in total points won. He's far more stable than Alcaraz when it comes to keeping double faults and errors to a minimum, which matters in tight sets. Stylistically, his flatter, lower ball strikes fit perfectly on the slower US Open surface, making him hard to hit through. If he's fully healthy, Sinner's control and power from both wings separate him from the field. But if the illness is still lingering, +105 shifts from value to risk fast.

Snellings: Sinner has been incredible on hard courts the past two seasons, going a combined 65-4 on the surface in 2024 and 2025, including winning all three hard-court Grand Slams in that stretch (2024, 2025 Australian Open and 2024 US Open). Sinner also won three ATP 1000 level events on hard courts in that span. This season, Sinner has made the final of all three majors, winning the Australian Open and Wimbledon. He made the final of the recent ATP 1000 event at the Cincinnati Open before having to withdraw because of illness. If fully healthy, Sinner should be the clear favorite to repeat as US Open champion.

What is another bet that stands out on the women's side?

Maldonado: Mirra Andreeva vs. Alycia Parks under 19.5 games in the first round (-115). Parks has the big serve but struggles with consistency, piling up double faults and giving away free points. Andreeva, on the other hand, is one of the most efficient young players on tour. She redirects pace well, forces long rallies and punishes second serves. On the US Open hard court, Andreeva's ability to absorb and counter neutralizes Parks' power. If Andreeva dictates early, this could be straightforward, something like 6-3, 6-2, where Parks struggles to hold serve consistently.

Snellings: Any American woman to win (+280). According to ESPN BET, five of the 11 players with the shortest odds to win the championship are American. Gauff, who won her first major at the US Open in 2023 and her second at the French Open this season, has the third-shortest odds at +800. Keys (+1800) has the seventh-best odds and is 22-4 on hard courts this season, including winning her first major at the Australian Open. Amanda Anisimova (+2200), Jessica Pegula (+2800) and Emma Navarro (+3300) round out the top 11. Anisimova was a finalist at Wimbledon and won a WTA 1000 tournament on hard court at the Qatar Open this season. Pegula was a finalist at the US Open last year, and Navarro was a semifinalist at the same tournament. All five have the proven ability to contend, and that's not even including other strong Americans like 2022 Australian Open finalist Danielle Collins (+6600) or 2020 Australian Open champion Sofia Kenin (+8000). Playing the numbers game, the Americans have a solid chance to win in New York.

What is another bet that stands out on the men's side?

Maldonado: Miomir Kecmanovic (+140) over Joao Fonseca in the first round. Kecmanovic has the edge in experience, especially on hard courts, where his compact baseline game and ability to absorb pace play well. Fonseca's talent is obvious, but he's still unproven at this stage and tends to leak errors when extended in rallies. Kecmanovic's flatter ball stays low and will force Fonseca out of his strike zone, which is key on a quicker surface. If Kecmanovic keeps his first-serve percentage solid and makes this physical, his edge in shot tolerance and match maturity could tilt this his way.

Snellings: Shelton as the American who will progress furthest in the tournament (+260). Taylor Fritz has the shortest odds to win this prop (+170), and for good reason. Fritz is the highest-seeded American man at No. 4, and he was in the US Open finals last year. But Shelton is worth keeping an eye on. The young up-and-comer with a booming serve is playing the best tennis of his career. Shelton is a two-time Grand Slam semifinalist, including the 2023 US Open and this year's Australian Open. He is known for his big serve, but he has diversified his game this season, making use of the angles with his powerful lefty forehand and showing a willingness to come to the net at any point in the match. Shelton has been outstanding on hard courts this season, winning the ATP 1000 level Canadian Open and finishing in the quarterfinals at both the Cincinnati Open and Indian Wells in addition to that semifinal at the Australian Open. Shelton has the game and is playing at the level necessary to make a deep run.

Who is your favorite long shot bet to win the women's title?

Maldonado: Jasmine Paolini (+3300). Paolini has been battle-tested on the biggest stages, with two Slam finals in 2024, and doesn't shy away from big moments. Her game translates better to hard courts than she is given credit for. She uses elite movement, great anticipation and has the ability to turn defense into offense against bigger hitters. Paolini's serve isn't huge, but her return game keeps her in sets, and she thrives when matches get physical. If the draw opens up even a little, Paolini has the consistency and mentality to make a deep run.

Snellings: Osaka (+1600). I strongly considered Mboko (+2000) for this spot -- the 18-year-old Canadian is fresh off winning her first WTA championship at the WTA 1000 Canadian Open, defeating four Grand Slam champions, including Osaka and Gauff, along the way -- but Mboko is still on the way up, without a lot of experience. Osaka, however, is ramping back up in a career where she was once nigh unbeatable on hard courts. Osaka won four hard-court Grand Slams, including the 2018 and 2020 US Opens, before stepping away from tennis for a maternity leave. Osaka has been playing herself into form, with a 16-6 record on hard courts this year. Her finals appearance at the Canadian Open was her best finish at any event WTA 1000 level or higher since 2022, and she might be peaking just in time for the Grand Slam where she has had her best historical results.

Who is your favorite long shot bet to win the men's title?

Maldonado: Djokovic to win (+1200) would strictly be a value sprinkle, not a core play. He's still elite in stretches, and no one matches his ability to turn matches into tactical battles if Sinner or Alcaraz wobble. But at 38, the grind of best-of-fives over two weeks is a huge ask, especially against younger, relentless baseliners. You're betting more on chaos opening up his half of the draw than on him outlasting everyone straight up. At this number, Djokovic is not a headline. The upside is there, but durability is the risk.

Snellings: Djokovic. In a remarkable career that includes a record 24 Grand Slam singles titles, Djokovic has finally started to show physical signs of wear and tear over the past two years. With Sinner and Alcaraz having won the past seven Grand Slams, it is easy to forget that Djokovic won three of four in 2023, including the US Open. Djokovic has reached the semifinals in all three majors this season while dealing with health issues, having to withdraw from the Australian Open and visibly limping around the court at Wimbledon.

But if Djokovic can stay healthy through the entire tournament -- a big if -- he is still the one player that has the game to challenge Sinner and Alcaraz, which he would likely have to do in order to win in New York. Entering as the No. 7 seed, Djokovic would potentially face fourth-seeded Fritz in the quarterfinals, Alcaraz in the semis and Sinner in the finals. It is a daunting draw and would be a major feat, but at long shot odds, Djokovic remaining healthy and winning a record 25th slam is worth seriously considering.