Every Big 12 team's best, worst case scenario in 2025: Sub-.500 for Deion Sanders? Unbeaten Arizona State?
The Big 12 is the most unpredictable conference in the country, with contenders at nearly every level. The uncertainty means that almost every outcome is on the table, even weeks before the season.
According to FanDuel sportsbook, every single Big 12 team has a win total between 5.5 and 8.5 -- an unbelievable level of parity. One ball bouncing the right way can swing the entire conference championship race.
With that in mind, we looked into the dramatic possibilities for every team in the Big 12. Several have the upside of reaching the Big 12 Championship Game. Another many could easily miss a bowl game if they're unlucky. Here's what we see as the range of possibilities.
Be sure to check out our best/worst case scenarios for the other conferences. SEC | Big Ten
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.
ArizonaOdds to win conference title: +5500
Best case 7-5: The Wildcats brought in some intriguing transfers to surround quarterback Noah Fifta, including running back Ismail Mahdi and receiver Kris Hutson. The defense takes a modest step forward and the offense does enough to keep games competitive. More importantly, this starts to look like a Brent Brennan team.
Worst case 2-10: Brennan was hired to essentially continue the Jedd Fisch era and retain most of the roster. One year later, almost all the top playmakers are gone, including Tacario Davis and Jacob Manu to Washington. The Wildcats have almost zero proven commodities on either side of the ball and have a floor of worst in the Big 12.
Arizona StateOdds to win conference title: +650
Best case 12-0: By the time last season ended, Arizona State was playing like one of the top five teams in the country. If the growth curve stays on track, the Sun Devils could be even better. Quarterback Sam Leavitt, safety Xavion Alford and receiver Jordyn Tyson are All-America candidates, and rank among the best players in the Big 12. Why not?
Worst case 7-5: The Sun Devils have a sneaky difficult schedule. Mississippi State and Texas State are high-variance teams in nonconference play and Baylor, TCU, Utah, Texas Tech and Iowa State are serious conference championship contenders. Every bounce went ASU's way in 2024, but the inverse could happen in 2025.
BaylorOdds to win conference title: +650
Best case 11-1: In quarterback Sawyer Robertson, running back Bryson Washington and offensive coordinator Jake Spavital, Baylor boasts perhaps the best triumvirate in the Big 12. With four starting offensive linemen back, this should be the Big 12's best offense. If Dave Aranda can continue making improvements on defense, the ceiling is holding the Big 12 title trophy at the end of the year.
Worst case 5-7: The worst part of Baylor's schedule? The season could be completely over by October. Auburn, SMU, Arizona State, Kansas State and TCU are all loseable games by Oct. 18 and there are plenty of other 50/50 contests down the stretch. If Baylor can't find any answers on defense, it's easy to see how Dave Aranda could slide right back into hot seat territory.
BYUBest case 11-1: The most underrated team in America last season is well prepared to retain its crown. The defense remains stacked with Keanu Tanuvasa joining Jack Kelly and Isaiah Glasker. Receiver Chase Roberts' return is a huge win, while running back LJ Martin is a breakout candidate. The Cougars dodge most of the chief conference title contenders, only drawing Texas Tech.
Worst case 8-4: Quarterback Jake Retzlaff has been away from the team as he deals with a legal issue. If he can't play, the quarterback room becomes extremely concerning. Former Utah State starter McCae Hillstead is next in line, but he hasn't played since 2023. The defense will keep things on track, but how far can it go?
CincinnatiBest case 9-3: There's a lot to be excited about at Cincinnati. Quarterback Brendan Sorsby is one of the most underrated players in the conference and the duo of Joe Royer and Tawee Walker should give him help. The talent on defense is solid, headlined by defensive tackle Dontay Corleone. A season opener against Nebraska could help set off a breakout season.
Worst case 5-7: For all the talent, Cincinnati has struggled to get out of its own way. The Bearcats blew numerous close games amid a five-game losing streak to end 2024 and produced one of the most head-scratching losses of the season against Pitt. Can Scott Satterfield develop a more disciplined team?
ColoradoBest case 8-4: For the first time under Deion Sanders, Colorado is going to be a normal football team. The Buffaloes' defense will be the star of the show after adding Jaheim Oatis from Alabama, and defensive coordinator Robert Livingstone elevated the unit tremendously. Quarterbacks Kaidon Salter and Julian Lewis ensure that the position remains in good hands, especially with receiver Drelon Miller still on campus.
Worst case 5-7: The last two years at Colorado have been built around sensational talents Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter. With the pair gone, does Colorado have the dynamic talent to keep things rolling? There's no guarantee Salter or Lewis can keep up the production, especially with a shaky offensive line. There are landmines all over the schedule.
Best case 9-3: Maybe I'm drinking the Kool-Aid, but Willie Fritz is a magician. The Cougars revamped their offense with the addition of quarterback Conner Weigman and running back Dean Connors. The defense was quietly formitable last season, and should be able to remain above average despite a few losses. Contention is probably out of the cards, but a nice season is possible.
Worst case 4-8: For all its talent, Houston still has a number of new faces. Nearly every position on offense has transfers vying for playing time and the Cougs lost heralded defensive coordinator Shiel Wood to Texas Tech. The schedule also has a number of coin-flip games that could easily go the wrong direction.
Iowa StateBest case 10-2: The Cyclones made it to the Big 12 title game last season and the return of quarterback Rocco Becht ensures they will stay in the mix. Transfer receivers Chase Sowell and Xavier Townsend are well regarded and the defense has been a machine under coordinator Jon Heacock. Another run to Arlington is on the table.
Worst case 7-5: Many top names from Iowa State's run to the Big 12 title game last year are gone and replicating a magical season is difficult in Ames. Just four years ago, the program struggled to capitalize on a Fiesta Bowl season, finishing 7-6. Iowa State needs more from its running game to stay in contender range.
KansasBest case 10-2: The Jayhawks were a buzzsaw in the second half of the 2025 season and should continue their roll with Jalon Daniels back under center. The program also gets a manageable schedule with five Big 12 matchups against teams that missed a bowl last season. If the newcomers can fit in quickly, the Jayhawks can pop.
Worst case 5-7: Let's be real, the worst-case scenario is losing badly on the road against rival Missouri, but a tailspin is possible. West Virginia and Cincinnati in the first few weeks are winnable but treacherous games. A late-season run of Iowa State and Utah could provide some complications.
Kansas StateBest case 11-1: The Wildcats are permanent members of the Big 12 contender club after their run of recent success, and more is possible. Quarterback Avery Johnson is a surging star and should improve tremendously in his second season. The Wildcats also added a few more weapons to help. With any luck, Kansas State can find itself in Arlington once more.
Worst case 8-4: Under Chris Klieman, 8-4 is essentially as low as the floor goes. There are still serious questions about Johnson's consistency, and a revamped offensive line won't help. Kansas State also lost top defensive lineman Brendan Mott to the NFL. A few bounces could go the wrong direction in Manhattan.
Oklahoma StateBest case 8-4: Mike Gundy does his best work when the odds are longest, and there's never been more question marks. However, the Cowboys are excited about their quarterback battle of Zane Flores and Hauss Hejny and OSU picked up some significant wins in the transfer portal. A rebound is possible.
Worst case 2-10: Oklahoma State was a 3-9 team last year and then lost a number of quality players, including Ollie Gordon, Nyck Martin and Collin Oliver. Essentially every assistant and most of the roster is new. There truly is no floor for how bad things can get if the program doesn't come together.
TCUBest case 11-1: The schedule is probably a little too hard to go undefeated, but TCU has a very realistic shot to emerge as a serious Big 12 contender. The defense took a major step in the second half of the season and quarterback Josh Hoover is a rising star. If the offensive line can improve, this roster is one of the most talented in the Big 12.
Worst case 6-6: Frankly, the schedule is filled with potholes. SMU, Arizona State, Kansas State, Baylor, BYU and Iowa State expect to contend for the playoff. North Carolina, Colorado, Houston, Cincinnati and West Virginia will be nipping at the Frogs' heels. Abilene Christian is essentially the only locked win on the schedule.
Texas TechBest case 12-0: The Red Raiders had the most high-profile offseason in the country and now enters the year as prohibitive Big 12 favorites. The pass rush is one of the best in the country after adding David Bailey and Romello Height. Howard Sampson leads a revolution on the offensive line and there's many returning weapons. Nothing is out of reach for this team.
Worst case 8-4: Many of the moves Texas Tech made were floor raisers more than ceiling raisers, and that means the "downsides" of 2025 are remarkably high. Even an underwhelming Texas Tech squad will be favored in at least eight games next year, with more possible. Depth in the trenches should guarantee at least competence.
Best case 6-6: Ground-up rebuilds don't exist much in college football anymore, but the Knights are close to it after flipping the vast majority of their roster. There's little opportunity to become serious players, but coach Scott Frost has worked miracles before. Solid quarterback Tayven Jackson provides a real building block.
Worst case 2-10: Realistically, the Knights are probably a bottom three roster in the Big 12 and UCF doesn't get very many league bottom-feeders on its 2025 schedule. Even the season opener against Jacksonville State could come with some complications if the Knights aren't ready for primetime.
UtahBest case 11-1: Utah has been dragged down by one of the worst offenses in the country each of the past two years. What if that changes? The Utes imported a tremendous offensive system with coordinator Jason Beck that was the only unit to produce a pair of 1,000-yard rushers last season. Even better, they brought in Beck's former quarterback, Devon Dampier, to run it. The defense is reliably excellent and Kyle Whittingham is one of the best coaches in the league. There's no ceiling.
Worst case 5-7: For all the excitement about the new offensive system, it does come with risks. Dampier threw 12 interceptions last season and hasn't proven he can compete at a Power Four level. Additionally, the schedule is tricky with potential top tier teams Texas Tech, Arizona State, BYU, Baylor and Kansas State on the docket.
West VirginiaBest case 8-4: Rich Rod's new squad ranks among the hardest to project in the Big 12 after fundamentally changing their identity. However, there's serious talent that could pop on offense, and running back Jahiem White is a star in the making. The most growth should come on defense, where heralded coordinator Zac Alley is perhaps the biggest addition of the offseason.
Worst case 4-8: The Mountaineers have eased up their nonconference schedule, but the Big 12 didn't give them many favors. There are road trips to BYU and Arizona State and the only home game against a non-bowl team comes against Utah, which is projected to bounce back. That Pitt game is awfully important.
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