Dylan Harper expected to be the No. 2 pick in the NBA Draft but will it be by the Spurs?
On the night of the 2020 NBA Draft, Tyrese Haliburton -- a surefire top-10 projected selection -- slid all the way to pick No. 12. Haliburton was the best player on the board available, and the Sacramento Kings -- despite already having a star point guard on their roster in De'Aaron Fox -- selected the Iowa State product.
Less than five years later, the Spurs will be in a similar position as Sacramento did on that draft night. Fox was traded to San Antonio at the deadline earlier this year to give the team a reliable scorer next to rising superstar Victor Wembanyama. San Antonio shockingly jumped to the No. 2 pick in last month's NBA Draft Lottery, putting the franchise in position to draft Rutgers star guard Dylan Harper -- the consensus second-best player in his class behind Duke's Cooper Flagg. Harper is the favorite at -4000 to be selected No. 2 in the NBA Draft at FanDuel Sportsbook.
This year's draft cycle may be déjà vu all over again for Fox, who saw the team he was on before use their lottery pick to address a need that didn't exist. Ironically, Sacramento took a point guard the following year in the top-10 (Davion Mitchell) and drafted Devin Carter last summer while Fox was on the roster.
Part of why the Kings dealt Halliburton was the fit next to Fox was far from seamless. Haliburton shared the court with Fox for 960 minutes during the 2020-21 season, which was Sacramento's ninth-most-popular two-man lineup. The star backcourt posted a -4.7 net rating -- the second-worst among Sacramento's two-man lineups that logged at least 500 minutes together.
At the time of the 2020 draft, Sacramento picking Haliburton was viewed as a surprise. Fox was on the verge of signing a long-term contract extension and was the face of the franchise. Despite that, Sacramento prioritized picking the best player available over fit two years removed from doing the opposite. Sacramento passed on Luka Dončić in 2018 to draft Marvin Bagley lll, and part of the decision to take Bagley was because of the positional fit next to Fox.
This year is a different situation from 2020, but the same sentiment applies. Drafting the best player available -- which in this case is Harper this year and five years ago was Haliburton -- has a higher hit success rate than targeting fit over talent.
How the lottery changed everything for the SpursLess than a month ago, the Spurs and Mavs probably didn't think their respective franchises would be in this situation. Both benefited tremendously from jumping in last month's lottery and are in a position to add a premium player to their franchise.
The irony of the situation is that the Spurs' biggest need was for a wing. Dallas had a clear need for a point guard after trading away Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving tore his ACL, which puts his stats in the air for the 2025-26 season.
Flagg, the projected No. 1 overall pick, would've been an excellent fit in San Antonio next to Fox, Wembanyama and Stephon Castle. But to be honest, any team that won the draft lottery would've been able to plug Flagg into their rotation from Day 1 and found a way to figure out the long-term fit later.
Before the lottery balls dropped in Dallas' favor, it was clear that the priority could be selecting a point guard in the late portion of the lottery. After all, Dallas had the 11th-best odds of earning the No. 1 pick. The Mavs draft targets would look drastically different if not for the jump -- same with San Antonio, who had just a 26.4% chance of moving into the top four.
The rumor mill has been churning on the San Antonio front in part because of the reported interest in Milwaukee Bucks superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo. In a hypothetical trade, pick No. 2 would almost certainly go to the Bucks if Antetokounmpo becomes a member of the Spurs. Harper would also be a good fit with other teams picking after San Antonio, such as the Utah Jazz and the Brooklyn Nets.
Harper is heavily favored (-4000 per FanDuel) to be selected with the No. 2 pick later this month. Here is how Harper fits with the Spurs and the other three teams mentioned -- if San Antonio is inclined to listen to trade offers.
What teams make sense for Harper? San Antonio SpursCurrently holds No. 2 pick
Haliburton and Harper have different styles of play, so there is a path to making the fit work with Fox. Harper's greatest strength is getting downhill and finishing at the rim, while Fox uses his elite speed to create in transition. Fox is also one of the best mid-range shooters in the association.
In all likelihood, Harper will be a member of the Spurs, barring the franchise using this pick to trade for a big name, such as Antetokounmpo. If Harper does go to the Spurs, it wouldn't be surprising if he came off the bench during his rookie season -- similar to Haliburton. The Spurs' supporting cast is also better-supporting than what Sacramento had when Haliburton entered the league with the Kings/Fox.
Harper has been compared to Pistons star guard Cade Cunningham. Unless the Spurs get an offer that would help the franchise win immediately, they should keep this pick and take Harper. There is a clear drop between Harper and whoever gets selected at No. 3. You take the best player on the board and figure out the fit later.
Milwaukee BucksCould trade for No. 2 pick
The Bucks are listed second behind San Antonio -- the current owner of the second draft slot -- because it seems if any team has the asset(s) to get No. 2, it's them. This package would be built around Antetokounmpo going to the Spurs. Pick No. 2, matching salary and other draft assets would go back to Milwaukee if a deal happens.
The Bucks are in a difficult position this offseason. Star guard Damian Lillard will miss most, if not all, of the 2025-26 season after tearing his Achilles in the playoffs. The Bucks traded Khris Middleton at the deadline earlier this year and Brook Lopez will be 37 years old at the start of the season. If the Bucks trade Antetokounmpo, it would signal a full-on rebuild. It would also be a great situation for Harper to walk into as the presumed starting point guard.
Could trade for No. 2 pick
Brooklyn dropped two spots in last month's draft lottery and will pick at No. 8 pick. It was a devastating blow for a team needing a true star. Assuming the Nets stay at No. 8, the pool of blue-chip candidates will be much smaller. The franchise might cast a wider net to decide who to use the selection on.
While the Nets don't have a superstar to trade, Brooklyn does have future draft capital. Just this year alone, the Nets have four first-round picks. The Nets would likely have to dip into their future reserve of picks to move up from six spots to land Harper, but the investment would be worth it. If the Nets don't trade up, Brooklyn could take another point guard, such as Oklahoma's Jeremiah Fears, or use one of their late first-rounders to take another guard who falls.
Utah JazzCould trade for No. 2 pick
The biggest loser of the draft lottery was Utah. The Jazz finished with the worst record in the NBA and dropped out of the top four. Utah was hoping to win the Flagg sweepstakes or (at worst) drop one spot to select Harper. Instead, the Jazz sit at No. 5 and will likely pick between VJ Edgecombe, Ace Bailey, or Tre Johnson.
The Jazz have solid frontcourt depth with Lauri Markkanen, Walker Kessler and Kyle Filipowski. Isaiah Collier, a first-round pick from last summer, showed promise as a rookie. Still, Utah needs more star power to take the next step out of the rebuild. The Jazz could be inclined to wait until next season when in-state star AJ Dybantsa -- the projected No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft out of BYU -- is available. Jazz CEO Danny Ainge has been aggressive before, so trading up three slots to select a franchise point guard would fit the bill of bold moves. Harper would also be a fun fit next to those frontcourt players.
cbssports
