Dribble Handoff: Michigan State, Maryland among college basketball teams expected to regress in 2025-26 season

This time last year, North Carolina was gearing up for the 2024-25 season with lofty expectations. The Tar Heels were the reigning ACC champions, coming off a Sweet 16 appearance -- as a No. 1 seed -- and bringing back leading scorer RJ Davis. UNC registered at No. 9 in the AP Top 25 preseason poll.

But, as it turned out, the Tar Heels were one of college basketball's biggest fallers. They barely made the NCAA Tournament as a No. 11 seed and were relegated to the First Four. Then, they were run off the floor by Ole Miss in the first round to cap a disappointing season that fell well short of the expectations set during the prior season.

Sustaining success in college basketball has arguably never been more difficult. Relax for even a second and you risk being overtaken by an upstart program that just nailed its transfer class (see Louisville in the ACC last season). You must constantly be re-recruiting your own roster while simultaneously scouting high school prospects, transfers and international talent.

College basketball transfer portal winners and losers: Will Wade starts strong at NC State; Kentucky reloads

Inevitably, some teams in the 2025-26 season will fall off the pace they set last season, just like North Carolina did. Who will those teams be? Our CBS Sports college basketball experts are making their picks in this week's Dribble Handoff.

Gonzaga won at least a share of the West Coast Conference regular-season title every season from 2013 through 2023. Specifically, it was 11 straight. But Saint Mary's snapped that streak in 2024 with an outright WCC championship, and then added another one last season when the Gaels finished 29-6 overall, including 17-1 in the league.

They were a really good team.

Randy Bennett deserves Hall of Fame consideration for what he's done over the past two decades at a school that, possibly, only he could consistently make this nationally relevant. So I'm hesitant to bet against him. But the truth is that, from last season's team, the Gaels lost four of their top five scorers -- including the leading scorer, Augustas Marciulionis. In total, the Gaels lost six of their top nine scorers.

That's a lot to replace.

Could Saint Mary's still be good? Sure, if only because the Gaels are almost always good -- evidence being four straight trips to the NCAA Tournament. But after finishing 26th at BartTorvik.com last season, SMC is now sitting at 55th in that same site's preseason rankings, which suggests the Gaels could go from winning consecutive WCC outright championships to missing the 2026 NCAA Tournament. -- Gary Parrish

Maryland is coming off its best season in almost a decade as the Terrapins reached the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2016 and finished with 27 wins.

In the days leading up to Maryland's NCAA Tournament run last spring, chaos surrounded the program. The worst-kept secret in the sport was that coach Kevin Willard planned to depart for the vacant job at Villanova. Willard's press conferences -- especially the one before and after Maryland's Sweet 16 loss to Florida -- were some of the most unusual I've seen.

I did like what Maryland was able to do by plucking away Buzz Williams from Texas A&M. He's a proven winner, and the program needed that after what happened with Willard, but the Terps are going to take a step back this season. It's going to be impossible to match the production the Maryland starting lineup had last season, which put up impressive numbers. All five of those players have either graduated, transferred or moved on to the NBA.

From this roster, I'm very intrigued to see what Indiana transfer Myles Rice can do. He had a fantastic freshman season with Washington State during the 2023-24 campaign. If he can return to that level of play, it will help Maryland. Otherwise, a step back has to be on the table for this program. -- Cameron Salerno

Clemson is coming off a program-record 27-win season, which included an 18-2 mark in ACC play. The Tigers earned a No. 5 seed for the NCAA Tournament but were ousted by McNeese in a first-round heartbreaker. Under any circumstances, reaching 27 wins again would be challenging. But even getting back to the Big Dance will be tough for a program that is losing all five players who started 10+ games. Only one rotation player (Dillon Hunter) is back, although he won't be the lone familiar face.

Forward RJ Godfrey is transferring back to Clemson from Georgia after spending his first two seasons with the Tigers and last year at UGA. He is part of a six-man transfer haul that will need to gel immediately and pop significantly in order for Clemson to avoid a steep drop-off. Godfrey and ex-Utah forward Jake Wahlin are the only transfers coming from high-major schools. There will be significant pressure on guards Jestin Porter (Middle Tennessee) and Efrem Johnson (UAB) to be productive and efficient. Amid the departure of all-ACC forward Ian Schieffelin, the Tigers will need highly ranked Nevada transfer Nick Davidson to reach his billing as a top-50 transfer in the class.

Coach Brad Brownell is entering his 16th season and has done a great job over the past eight years of turning the Tigers into one of the ACC's most consistent teams. He's earned some leeway, and he may need it this year as the Tigers press reset following a fantastic two-year run. -- David Cobb

When Jase Richardson inked with Michigan State, a one-and-done outcome was far from the expectation. It's a first-world problem that Richardson became the Orlando Magic's first-round pick after transforming Michigan State into a real contender and unlocking one of the most enjoyable seasons of Tom Izzo's career. 30 wins? A Big Ten championship? A No. 2 seed and an Elite Eight appearance? Ooooooh, that's the good stuff.

But Richardson's departure does open the door for Michigan State to slide back to the rest of the pack in 2025-26. College basketball can be cyclical, at times, and Michigan State has been hit with some unexpected tremors this offseason. The writing was on the wall with the dynamic Richardson down the stretch, but Tre Holloman's abrupt decision to transfer to NC State stung, too.

Michigan State will head into 2025-26 without arguably its best three guards from last season: Richardson, Holloman and the graduated Jaden Akins. Michigan State had the best defense in the Big Ten, largely thanks to that trio of vicious on-ball defenders, especially Akins, who should've been included in the Big Ten's All-Defensive Team.

On paper, Michigan State's defense has the bones to still be vicious with Jeremy Fears Jr. hounding lead guards, Coen Carr eviscerating big wings and both Jaxon Kohler and Carson Cooper waiting to impose their will at the rim. But the depth of plus perimeter defenders isn't there anymore, and Michigan State's offense seems destined to take a serious step back. Fears, Carr, Kohler and Cooper -- 80% of Michigan State's projected starting five -- all have severe shooting questions that aren't going away anytime soon. Izzo, long an antagonist of the transfer-heavy culture, has quietly hired a staff that knows what it's doing in portal scouting. Samford veteran transfer Trey Fort will add some much-needed perimeter shot-making, but prized FAU transfer Kaleb Glenn will miss all of 2025-26 with a gruesome torn patellar injury. Yet another brutal offseason development for MSU.

Make no mistake, Michigan State still has a high floor. Its blanketing 3-point defense isn't going anywhere. Cooper, Kohler, Carr and incoming freshman forward Cam Ward should help the Spartans keep smoking teams on the glass. Fears single-handedly is a fast-break machine who should take a healthy step forward with a full, healthy offseason. Defense, rebounding and a turbo transition offense is a good recipe to be competent, and there are some real upside plays in Carr (future NBA player), Ward (who looks built in a lab to play for Izzo) and sophomore Kur Teng (baller).

But losing Richardson and losing Holloman and losing Glenn are three tough pills to swallow. I have Michigan State closer to a top-30 team, not a top-eight team. -- Isaac Trotter