College Football Playoff 2025: G5 contenders lead preseason bubble watch
One of the glaring differences between the first and last top-25 rankings of the season will be the inclusion of a Group of 5 conference champion in the top 12.
We won't see the committee's top 25 until Nov. 4, but sneaking into the preseason AP Top 25 is Boise State at No. 25 -- the only Group of 5 team represented. The Broncos have the highest chance to reach the playoff (25%) of any G5 team, according to ESPN Analytics.
When the preseason poll was released, Boise State coach Spencer Danielson met with his players and reminded them that in 2024 they weren't ranked at all -- but went on to win the Mountain West Conference and earn a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff.
"I told our guys, 'The country doesn't think you can be anything because Ashton Jeanty's not here,'" Danielson said. "Let's just call it what it is. There's an edge you have to have in life, and I always think that brings out the best in you. That edge comes from having something to prove."
Boise State is hardly the only team starting the season on the bubble. Any team that has a chance to win its league is also a playoff contender because the five highest-ranked conference winners are guaranteed spots in the 12-team field. And seven at-large spots are up for grabs.
Below is a look at teams on the preseason bubble, but we'll start with playoff lessons from last season.
Jump to a topic: Lessons from first 12-team CFP Bubble teams with early tests G5 contenders with no margin for error
What we learned last season1. If you have a weak schedule, win big. Indiana was at the heart of a CFP debate that spilled into the offseason and was a catalyst for changes to the metrics the committee uses to evaluate schedule strength. Committee members will tell you they don't incentivize margin of victory, but sheer dominance is hard to ignore. The Hoosiers were No. 1 in the country in points margin per game (25.7) and No. 2 with 41.3 points scored per game. On Selection Day, the Hoosiers were ranked No. 8 with the No. 68 schedule in the country and no wins against ranked opponents. This could be a factor for a team such as BYU (No. 62 SOS) or Bill Belichick's North Carolina (No. 70).
2. If you're not playing on conference championship game weekend, don't expect much movement. In the past, wins against eventual conference champions impacted the committee's final ranking, but that didn't happen in 2024. No. 14 South Carolina beat Clemson during the regular season -- a win that ultimately was against the ACC champion. Instead of being rewarded for that while idle, though, South Carolina dropped one spot in the final ranking to finish No. 15. (Remember, committee members rotate off the group every three years, so different people bring different philosophies to the table.) This offseason, the committee reaffirmed that movement in the final week should be evidence-based and did not recommend creating a formal policy prohibiting such shifting.
3. Even the worst losses can be overcome -- if they happen early and are followed by a remarkable run. Notre Dame's Week 2 loss to unranked Northern Illinois haunted the Irish in the committee meeting room all season. And yet they still played for the national title. It's another reminder not to write off teams in September -- no matter how dire their situation might seem. The pressure will be on, though, to run the table or finish with a résumé strong enough to make committee members forgive the early face-plant.
4. The No. 11 and No. 12 ranking spots are dangerous. Even in a 12-team playoff, it's best to finish in the selection committee's top 10 to avoid getting knocked out by the fourth or fifth conference champion. At No. 11, Alabama was the committee's highest-ranked three-loss team, but the Tide were bumped out of the field to make room for ACC champion Clemson, which was ranked No. 16. They also moved behind Big 12 champion Arizona State, ranked No. 12. The five highest-ranked conference champions continue to receive guaranteed spots in the playoff. This could be an issue for a team such as Miami, if the Canes don't win the ACC but are hovering around No. 11 or No. 12, or maybe the second-best team in the Big 12, or another SEC team looking for an at-large bid like South Carolina.
Bubble teams with early tests
Boise State: The Broncos' trip to South Florida on Thursday is critical because both teams can win their respective conferences, and the head-to-head result likely would determine which league champion gets ranked higher. And it's not even September yet. Boise State's Oct. 4 trip to Notre Dame is even bigger because it's a chance for the Broncos to show the committee how they match up against a team that played for the national title last season. One reason the committee held the Broncos in such high regard last year was because of a close loss at Oregon, which went on to win the Big Ten. Even in a loss, Boise State could prove something to help it separate from other Group of 5 contenders.
South Florida: The Bulls line up against three straight ranked opponents to start the season -- Boise State, Florida and Miami. It's the very definition of a make-or-break stretch. Though an 0-3 start would knock the Bulls out of the discussion, a win against Boise State could ultimately earn them a spot in the playoff. A victory could be the difference if the Broncos go on to win the Mountain West Conference and South Florida takes the American. The head-to-head outcome would keep the Bulls ranked higher -- unless they lose to both Florida and Miami and the committee thinks that outweighs the season-opening result.
Miami: With a season opener against Notre Dame and an unofficial state championship against South Florida, Florida (and Florida State), the Canes will have critical nonconference results that could be factors on Selection Day if they are competing with any of those teams for an at-large bid. A road loss to FSU would put Miami behind in the ACC standings, leaving a Nov. 1 trip to SMU a likely must-win. The Canes don't face Clemson during the regular season.
Oklahoma: How much better are the Sooners? September home games against Michigan and Auburn will help answer that. ESPN Analytics gives the Wolverines a 51.8% chance to win. If they do, the head-to-head result will likely cap Oklahoma's rise in the rankings behind wherever Michigan lands as long as their records are comparable. OU probably can't afford to go 0-2 against Michigan and Auburn because of a loaded schedule that includes five straight weeks against top-25 opponents.
Florida: By early October, Florida will have played back-to-back road games at Miami and LSU and hosted Texas. The Gators can't go 0-3 against that lineup with the heart of SEC play still ahead.
Texas A&M: The Aggies' Sept. 13 trip to Notre Dame could be critical if both teams are competing for an at-large spot. The head-to-head result is one of several tiebreakers the committee uses, and because independent Notre Dame can't win a conference title, the winner could have the edge in the final debate.
Ole Miss: Don't snooze on the Rebels' September schedule. Tulane could win the American, which would help the Rebels' résumé, and the Sept. 27 home game a week later against LSU will be their first opportunity at a statement win.
Liberty might win Conference USA, but that doesn't mean the Flames will make the playoff. They'd still have to finish as the selection committee's highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion. Historically, weak schedules have been the kryptonite for these contenders, putting tremendous pressure on them to go undefeated.
While the above-mentioned Boise State and USF have some marquee matchups, other Group of 5 contenders don't have those opportunities to impress the committee, which means they need to be perfect to usurp the ones that do. Here's a list of Group of 5 contenders ranked in order of their chance to reach the playoff, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor:
Tulane (American)
ESPN Analytics: Tulane has the best chance in the American and the second-best chance among Group of 5 contenders (18.5%) to reach the playoff. The Green Wave have the best chance to win the league (38.9%).
SOS: No. 82
The challenge: The Sept. 20 trip to Ole Miss is the most difficult game on the schedule -- and a chance to lift Tulane into the playoff conversation. This would be a huge upset, and it would create an interesting debate in the committee meeting room if Boise State also wins at Notre Dame.
UNLV (MWC)
ESPN Analytics: UNLV has the second-best chance to win the conference (32.9%) and a 17.3% chance to make the playoff -- both second to Boise State.
SOS: No. 107
The challenge: Unless UCLA makes drastic improvements this fall, beating the Bruins at home won't impress the selection committee much, but a win at Boise State on Oct. 18 will be critical to the conference standings. The Rebels, despite struggling to get past Idaho State in Week 0, are the Broncos' top competition for the MWC title, and they could face each other again in the league championship game. If the Rebels lose to UCLA and Boise State during the regular season, though, even a conference title might not be enough to put them ahead of the American winner.
Memphis (American)
ESPN Analytics: Memphis has the second-best chance to win the league (29.5%) behind Tulane, and the fourth-best chance of any Group of 5 team (13.7%) to make the playoff.
SOS: No. 104
The challenge: Memphis hosts Arkansas on Sept. 20, a chance to show the committee it can beat a middle-of-the-pack SEC team. The value of a win against Arkansas depends on how the Hogs fare this season, but it's still the kind of win that could help separate Memphis from another Group of 5 champion like Liberty. If the Tigers lose to Arkansas, it puts them in a precarious position with South Florida, Tulane and Navy remaining on their schedule.
Navy (American)
ESPN Analytics: Navy has the fifth-best chance of any Group of 5 team to make the playoff (4.2%) and the third-best chance to win the American (9.4%).
SOS: No. 86
The challenge: Close the gap with Notre Dame. In 2024, Navy was undefeated and ranked No. 24 at 6-0 before getting hammered by the Irish 51-14. This year, the Midshipmen are at Notre Dame on Nov. 8 with an opportunity to show the selection committee they can at least hang with one of the nation's top teams if not beat them. Navy has to survive the back half of its schedule, which also includes South Florida, and a trip to Memphis.
UTSA (American)
ESPN Analytics: The Roadrunners have a 2.1% chance to reach the playoff, sixth among all Group of 5 contenders, and fourth best in the American. UTSA has a 6.7% chance to win its league.
SOS: No. 88
The challenge: Rebounding from the season opener at Texas A&M, where ESPN's FPI gives the Aggies a 91.8% chance to win. Unless UTSA finds a way to pull off one of the biggest upsets of the season, the Roadrunners then need to beat the top teams in their league to avoid finishing as a two-loss conference champion at best. The season will be decided with back-to-back games against Tulane and South Florida, but don't overlook a sneaky trip to Colorado State on Sept. 20.
Toledo (Mid-American)
ESPN Analytics: Toledo has a 1.8% chance to make the playoff, the best in the MAC. Toledo has the best chance to win the MAC (23.2%), but it's just a slight edge over Miami (Ohio) (22.9%).
SOS: No. 130
The challenge: Avoiding an 0-2 nonconference record against Kentucky and Washington State, both road games. ESPN's FPI gives the Rockets less than a 50% chance to win each of those games. Two losses would put Toledo in a must-win situation in the MAC -- with a road trip to Miami (Ohio) looming on Nov. 12. Toledo can't afford to be a three-loss conference champion and hope for a playoff bid.
Liberty (C-USA)
ESPN Analytics: Liberty has a 1.2% chance to make the playoff, still the best in its league, and the Flames have a 36.2% chance to win C-USA.
SOS: No. 136
The challenge: Perfection. Liberty doesn't play any Power 4 opponents and might not have any Top 25 teams on its schedule. The toughest stretch will come early, as the Flames go to Bowling Green, host James Madison and travel to Old Dominion in a three-week span.
Ohio (MAC)
ESPN Analytics: Ohio has the 10th-best chance to reach the playoff among Group of 5 teams (1.1%) and the third-best chance to win the MAC (20.7%) behind Toledo and Miami (Ohio).
SOS: No. 73
The challenge: September. Ohio opens its season with three straight games against Power 4 opponents: at Rutgers, home against West Virginia and at Ohio State. ESPN's FPI projects Ohio will start 0-3 -- and then run the table. Even if the Bobcats do that and win the MAC, the three losses would be extremely difficult to overcome in the committee meeting room.
espn
