Blue Jays’ playoff run unlikely to be home run for Toronto economy: experts
The Toronto Blue Jays are hoping to get a home run in the American League Champion Series as they step up to the plate, but economists and business leaders say the series’ boost for the city may be more akin to a walk.
“The thing about large scale sporting events, large scale music events, large scale events in general is that the economic impact is generally massively overstated,” said Moshe Lander, a sports economist at Concordia University.
The Jays are facing off against the Seattle Mariners in a best-of-seven series that began Sunday night in Toronto.
Lander said the Blue Jays’ run is much like the playoff runs of the Maple Leafs in that it will be short and highly concentrated, with people buying tickets and stopping at a local bar near the stadium, giving the appearance that it’s busier and better for the economy.
But what the games are actually doing, he said, is taking business from one part of the city and temporarily putting it in another.
While people might be working concession stands or handling parking for that night, they may actually be having to bail on a shift at their normal job to do so.
“The net impact is much closer to zero because you’re also having to factor in the cost,” he said. “When you look at the fans and say, ‘Well, they’re spending a huge amount on tickets,’ their overall income hasn’t changed, they haven’t gotten a promotion at work, they’re not working more productively. They don’t get a raise because the Jays have gone further, so their disposable income hasn’t changed and they’re choosing to buy tickets, then that has to mean they’re making cuts elsewhere.”
Even if temporary, there could still be some benefits for different industries.
Hospitality, for example, could see a boost because of people booking hotels and visiting restaurants.
Ahead of the Jays’ American League Division Series games against the New York Yankees, Greater Toronto Hotel Association CEO Sara Anghel told The Canadian Press that events like this can have an impact.
She pointed to the NHL All-Star Weekend last year, which boosted downtown hotel demand by 35 per cent compared to 2023.
Kelly Higginson, CEO of Restaurants Canada, said the Jays’ playoff run could be important “now more than ever” for the industry, given the affordability crisis many Canadians still face.
However, she cautioned that it may not be enough of a boost.
“We’ve got 75 per cent of Canadians saying because of the affordability crisis, hard-working Canadians are having to pull back on something as simple as a Sunday lunch out with their friends and that is a really sad thing to see,” Higginson told Global News.
Higginson was referring to a report released by her organization last month which showed a majority of Canadians are eating out less due to the rising cost of living.
Daimin Bodnar, owner of Hemingway’s Restaurant and Bar, told The Canadian Press he’s still hopeful the playoffs will be good for business.
Prior to the ALDS, he said more than 200 additional customers were expected each day of the Jays’ run, adding that the Toronto Raptors’ 2019 championship run saw his restaurant at capacity every game and is hoping Jays’ fans will bring a similar vibe.
“It’s going to bring people in good moods, good atmosphere, good experiences and give them a reason to watch it with other people,” he said.
The ALCS is still one step away from the World Series, and Lander told Global News that if the Jays make it further into the playoffs and potentially to the finals, it could change Canadians’ financial decisions.
“What matters is the psychological impact on the economy,” Lander said. “You will find that people will loosen their purse strings to spend on the Jays, to spend it on merchandise, to go to the bar maybe one extra time a week, a month, where they otherwise wouldn’t, and they will justify to themselves that when was the last time Toronto was here.”
Yet if the Jays do make it to the end, Lander cautions Canadians against jumping in too quickly as it could have a negative impact in the long run.
“That merchandise you bought is now also your Christmas gift because, ‘I spent that money that I would have gotten for an iPad has now been spent on matching his and her Blue Jays uniforms,'” he said.
—with files from Global News’ Anne Gaviola and The Canadian Press
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