Big 12 betting preview: Dropoff coming from ASU post Skattebo?

The Arizona State Sun Devils' fairytale debut season in the Big 12 ended with a conference title, but don't expect an encore. Losing Cam Skattebo, arguably the soul of last year's team, means the Sun Devils face a steep climb to replicate that magic.

Elsewhere around the league, the Baylor Bears are rising with a red-hot QB in Sawyer Robertson and are built to contend if the defense can keep pace. Texas Tech is oozing with potential but has questions everywhere, a new OC, rebuilt defense and no Tahj Brooks. And then there's Iowa State, maybe the best value on the board. A deep, experienced and battle-tested team. Don't sleep on the Cyclones.

But let's get back to the Sun Devils. On paper, the pieces are still in place. The challenge is replacing Skattebo, who was more than just a running back.

Skattebo accounted for 2,316 yards from scrimmage last season, second most in the nation, and scored 21 of the team's 30 rushing touchdowns. He was also the second-leading receiver, the best pass protector and the short-yardage hammer who kept drives alive. He finished third nationally in yards after contact and tied for fourth in explosive plays of 10 yards or more. Skattebo was the offensive engine, and his absence will change how defenses approach this team.

How to bet the Sun Devils?

The bet: UNDER 8.5 wins (-120)

ASU enters the 2025 season riding the momentum of a breakthrough year that ended with an 11-3 record, a Big 12 title and a spot in the College Football Playoff conversation. Most of the roster returns, and redshirt sophomore QB Sam Leavitt has NFL-level tools and early Heisman buzz. The defense is built to contend again, with nine returning starters from a unit that finished first in the Big 12 against the run. The passing game should be dangerous, led by Jordyn Tyson after his 1,101-yard season, alongside transfers Jalen Moss from Fresno State and Alabama speedster Jaren "Turbo" Hamilton.

Leavitt has the talent to elevate the offense, but his 72.3 percent adjusted completion rate ranked outside the top 60 quarterbacks nationally. Without Skattebo, he carries more pressure to produce, while an unproven backfield will need to step up.

The schedule includes tricky road games at Baylor, Utah, Iowa State and Colorado. Arizona State is still good enough to contend, but replacing Skattebo's production, leadership and reliability makes a repeat of last year's success unlikely. The under 8.5 wins at -120 offers value.

Other Big 12 predictions

Baylor OVER 7.5 wins (-110)

The over makes sense if you believe the second-half version of 2024 is who they truly are, closing the regular season with six straight wins with Robertson emerging as a legitimate playmaker, throwing 17 touchdowns in that stretch. With four starting offensive linemen back, plus Bryson Washington (1,028 rush yards) and Josh Cameron (10 TDs), the offense is built to continue that momentum.

If the defense can just be average, Baylor could flirt with double-digit wins. Defensively, head coach Dave Aranda hit the portal hard to address last year's biggest weakness: explosive plays allowed. With a favorable schedule that avoids Kansas and Texas Tech and gets Arizona State, Kansas State and Utah all at home, if Robertson continues to develop and the defense gels, Baylor has the pieces to be a legit sleeper in the Big 12 title race. Odds to win the Big 12: +700.

Texas Tech OVER 8.5 wins (-150) -- (Editor's Note: Why it's now a pass)

There's still a real path to nine or more wins, but at -150, the value is gone. I was okay at -125, but at this number, I'd rather pass and wait for a better entry point. Though at the very least, you can expect the Red Raiders to be potential contenders.

The -150 price tag is hard to love for a team breaking in a new offensive coordinator, replacing its all-time leading rusher Tahj Brooks, and now losing USC transfer Quinten Joyner for the season to a torn ACL. Joyner was expected to be the lead back, which shifts the rushing load onto sophomores J'Koby Williams and Cameron Dickey. Without a proven feature back, the offense likely leans heavier on QB Behren Morton and returning receivers Caleb Douglas and Coy Eakin, with Mack Leftwich's play-calling needing to get creative.

The NIL-fueled roster is still loaded with upside, and the ceiling remains high, but you're paying for that ceiling before seeing it. If Tech handles Oregon State and competes with Utah early, that's a green light that TTU could be legit. If not, you avoided a trap. Alternative angles to consider: back them to win the Big 12 at +550, grab an alt win total at plus money, or attack them week-to-week instead of tying up a season-long bet.

Iowa State OVER 7.5 wins (Even)

This stands out the most from a betting value standpoint as they could be the most complete team with plus upside. The Cyclones hit 11 wins in 2024 despite enduring the most injury-riddled season in school history. Now, with 12 starters back and a healthy core headlined by QB Rocco Becht, the Cyclones are built for another Big 12 title push. He'll be throwing to a new cast of receivers, but the run game is intact and the offensive line returns intact.

The defense is reloaded with portal help and experience across all levels. Even if they lose the opener to Kansas State, their schedule includes manageable non-conference matchups and a middle-tier Big 12 slate making eight wins the floor. Odds to win the Big 12: +1100.

Kansas State OVER 8.5 wins (Even)

Thanks to a deep defensive line, a rising QB in Avery Johnson, and a top-tier backfield, the Wildcats enter the 2025 season as the Big 12 co-favorites at +550 along with Texas Tech and ASU. There's plenty of reason to buy the upside: Johnson has matured into a legitimate dual-threat option, K-State has one of the best front sevens in the league, and the offense returns explosive weapons at all skill positions, giving them the profile of a 10-win contender.

I have concerns. The offensive line lacks experience, and the secondary is completely overhauled, with untested transfers expected to step up. For a team priced as a favorite, there's real volatility. Kansas State has the pieces, giving them a high floor but no margin for error, with plenty of landmine opportunity.

But look, there's no pressure to crown a champion in July. The Big 12 is too volatile, too unpredictable, and frankly, that's what makes it fun. Last year, I didn't call Arizona State +350 to win it until Week 13. We've got time.