Arch Manning in 2026 NFL Draft? Could the prospect of going No. 1 cut Texas QB's college career short?

Though Arch Manning has yet to spend a full season as a starting quarterback, many mock 2026 NFL Drafts have the young Texas star going off the board at No. 1 overall. Hype is nothing new for Manning, who bears the name of football royalty.

He's been one of the most ballyhooed athletes in the nation since he emerged as the top overall prospect in the 2023 recruiting class. The fact that he's spent the last couple of years mostly on the bench behind Quinn Ewers has done nothing to diminish the buzz.

With Manning set to take full control of Texas' offense in 2025, the noise has ratcheted up significantly. He's an early Heisman Trophy favorite and, with tremendous talent around him, Manning and the Longhorns have their eyes set on a College Football Playoff National Championship run.

Beyond that, projections and prospect rankings have already included him in the crop of 2026 NFL Draft hopefuls; but will he actually leave college early?

Like the hype, speculation about Manning's future is nothing new. Many assumed that he would transfer after failing to find consistent playing time in his first two years at Texas. Instead, he waited patiently for his opportunity.

He's only attempted 95 passes and thrown for less than 1,000 yards as a collegiate quarterback. He'll have every opportunity to put out great tape next year, and professional teams are almost certainly already interested in Manning, regardless of when he declares, but there's merit to adding to his body of work.

It certainly wouldn't be unprecedented for Manning to spurn the draft. His uncle, Peyton, elected to return for his senior campaign at Tennessee in 1997 in spite of the fact that he had already been a starter for two seasons and many saw him as a top-10 pick in the 1997 NFL Draft. Manning had a career year with the Vols and was selected first overall in 1998.

Arch's other (quite) notable uncle, Eli, spent five years in college at Ole Miss. He was the 2003 SEC Offensive Player of the Year as a fifth-year senior and, like Peyton, went first overall in the 2004 NFL Draft.

Like Horns247's Chip Brown points out, neither Peyton nor Eli benefitted from name, image and likeness in college. The younger Manning already has.

"Arch has already landed high-end NIL deals with Red Bull, Waymo, and Panini America," Brown wrote. "Financial urgency isn't a factor."

While Manning's NIL package likely isn't comparable to the almost $8 million annual NFL salary commanded by the No. 1 pick -- a figure that climbs with each passing year -- it's certainly more than enough to get by for a college student that's already on scholarship.

Manning also comes from a financially sound family with decades of professional football, sponsorships and media deals growing their personal wealth. The point is, there's no monetary pressure to leave early.

Manning can truly wait until he's ready. If that happens to be 2026 after one year of Texas' starting quarterback, then early signs suggest his decision would be sound. Even if he waits until 2027, it's hard to see his draft stock taking a huge hit.

Quarterbacks to keep an eye on for 2026

Though Manning is the tentative top quarterback prospect in the 2026 NFL Draft, there's a few names that could vie for the No. 1 slot if Manning elects to spend a fourth year in Austin.

LSU's Garrett Nussmeier spurned the 2025 NFL Draft, where he could have been a high pick, to return for a fifth year with the Tigers after his first full season as a starter. He boasts an ideal frame and a big arm that can deliver the ball to all levels of the field.

Penn State's Drew Allar made a similar decision, though he has 29 games of starting experience in three years with the Nittany Lions. He also has a similar build as Nussmeier, with his own share of arm talent.

Former Georgia starter Carson Beck transferred to Miami after spurning the draft for his sixth year of college football. A relatively disappointing 2024 season, in which he tied for the SEC lead with 12 interceptions, helped spark his decision.

Then there's LaNorris Sellers who, unlike the other quarterbacks listed, isn't actually draft eligible until after the 2025 season. He was a first-year starter for the Gamecocks in 2024 and flashed his talent by throwing for 2,274 yards and 17 touchdowns. He also added 655 yards and seven touchdowns rushing. Sellers may be one of the most intriguing athletes in the 2026 class. His upside is immense.

The 2026 quarterback class is shaping up to be a deep field, whether Manning's involved or not.