2025 College Football Week 3 Odds: Chris 'The Bear' Fallica's Expert Picks, Best Bets

"Bear Bets" are real wagers that Chris "The Bear" Fallica is actually making.

I went .500 during Week 2 of college football — not bad.

Aside from how excited I am for another round of games, I'm even more excited about betting them.

It's still early in the season, but I have picked out a handful of my favorite bets for Week 3, including my weekly Bear Bytes.

Let's dive in.

Last week: 2-2Season: 5-3

No. 6 Georgia @ No. 15 Tennessee

Is Georgia playing possum, is it really good or does it have legit concerns? I don’t think we truly know the answer and Saturday will help us draw conclusions.

It’s been a weird start to the season, as there have been injuries on the offensive line and weather delays, so not exactly conducive to consistency and building a finished product. While the offense has sputtered, the defense has looked very good, albeit against far inferior foes.

This will be a true test, but we’ve seen Kirby Smart’s defenses have their way with Josh Heupel’s offenses, so that factors in a great deal in my handicap. We’ll also see what Tennessee is made of this week, as a win over Syracuse and an FCS team isn’t exactly the best barometer either.

Feels like the world is on the Vols here, and we all know how much I love to fade the public 'dog and grab a favorite at a reduced price.

PICK: Georgia (-4) to win by more than 4 points

Connecticut @ Delaware

Not the highest profile game on the board, but one I like quite a bit. The Blue Hens final in Boulder was a bit deceiving, as they had just about 400 yards in the loss. Now, they return home to face a Connecticut team which really should have won in Syracuse last week but wound up losing in overtime.

Does that loss carry over into this week with at least a slow start? I’m willing to take the ten and a dapple of the moneyline to find out.

PICK: Delaware (+9.5) to lose by fewer than 9.5 points, or win outright

No. 18 South Florida @ No. 5 Miami

Last year, Miami racked up 50 points, averaged 9.4 yards per play and punted once against the Bulls — but I’m not sure if it is going to be an offensive explosion like that Saturday night at Hard Rock Stadium.

Instead, I think the Canes will rely on one of the best offensive lines in the country to just wear on USF with long-sustained drives and the run game. That doesn’t mean we won’t see a few big pass plays along the way as well.

Credit USF for getting the win in Gainesville last week, but in going back through that box score, it was more about bad Florida than anything else, highlighted by tons of penalties and mediocre QB play.

Feels like a 34-10 type of game.

PICK: Under 57.5 combined points scored

Western Michigan @ No. 9 Illinois

I hate Illinois, so I have to bet Western Michigan.

I’m kidding — I don’t hate Illinois, but I do hate the spot for it this week coming off a road win at Duke and having its Big-Ten opener at Indiana next week.

This has all the makings of a stale sandwich game against a Western Michigan side that kept Michigan State in check offensively in Week 1 and then blew a double-digit fourth-quarter lead last week against North Texas.

PICK: Western Michigan (+27.5) to lose by fewer than 27.5 points, or win outright

Memphis @ Troy

I wonder how much last week’s game took out of Troy. Leading at halftime at Clemson and then giving it up in the second half — will there be a hangover effect?

This number has come down throughout the week as it seems people are buying into Troy after the strong effort in Death Valley, but Colorado transfer Brendon Lewis has plenty of weapons and should be able to put up points here.

PICK: Memphis (-3.5) to win by more than 3.5 points

UNDERDOGS TO PLAY ON MONEYLINE

Last Week: 1-5, -2Season: 3-8, -2.05

Texas A&M +215

Delaware +315

BEAR BYTES

No. 12 Clemson @ Georgia Tech

In 10 games under Brent Key against ranked opponents, Georgia Tech is 8-2 ATS with five outright wins (3-0 ATS, 2-1 straight up at home).

No. 14 Iowa State @ Arkansas State

Last year, Iowa State beat Iowa 20-19 on a 54-yard Kyle Kondrady field goal. The following week, the Cyclones blew out Arkansas State 52-7. Dating back to 2012, the Cyclones are 9-1-1 ATS the week following the Iowa game (7-1 under Matt Campbell). So the Clones have done a good job bouncing back from their rivalry game.

No. 6 Georgia @ No. 15 Tennessee

The Vols have pulled home upsets over ranked opponents twice in their last three home games vs. ranked teams. The other was a 38-10 loss to Georgia. In their previous 15 games as a home underdog vs ranked opponents, the Vols were 2-13.

Georgia is 2-5 (1-6 ATS) in its last seven games as a favorite under seven points against ranked teams. Georgia had won seven of the first nine such games under Kirby Smart.

In four meetings between Tennessee and Georgia since Josh Heupel became head coach, the Vols have averaged 14.3 points per game, have been outgained by 133.3 yards per game, allowed 18 sacks, haven't thrown a touchdonw pass in the last three years and have had a total of six red-zone trips in those three games.

No. 4 Oregon @ Northwestern

Under Dan Lanning, Oregon is 9-1 ATS when favored by at least 27 points (6-0 vs FBS teams), and Oregon is one of two teams nationally to not commit a turnover nor allow a sack (Navy).

Vanderbilt @ No. 11 South Carolina

Since the start of last year, Vanderbilt is 8-2 ATS as a ‘dog with four outright wins. Included in that was a win over then No. 1 Alabama as a 23.5-point ’dog and a three-point loss to No. 5 Texas as a 17-point 'dog.

Florida @ No. 3 LSU

Brian Kelly has won 18 straight games when his team has been favored by six points or more, dating back to a 2022 loss at Texas A&M. That’s the only time in the last 67 instances, dating back to 2016 at Notre Dame, that a Brian Kelly team has been upset as a favorite of at least six points. Kelly’s teams have won 42 straight home games when favored by at least six points (16-0 at LSU), dating back to a 2016 loss to Duke.

In 12 games against FBS opponents, DJ Lagway has thrown 10 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.

Billy Napier is 16-20 against FBS opponents as Florida head coach.

Wisconsin at No. 19 Alabama

This is the sixth straight and 10th time in 12 games vs. Power 5 opponents that Wisconsin has been an underdog (3-8 straight-up in those previous 11 games). In their previous 51 such games, the Badgers were an underdog, and one has to go back over the previous 77 games to come up with 10 instances of Wisconsin being an underdog.

Wisconsin is currently a 20.5-point underdog at Alabama. The Badgers haven’t been that big an underdog since 1996, when they were a 26.5-point dog at No. 2 Ohio State. That was 371 games ago.

Duke @ Tulane

Duke and Northwestern have turned the ball over six times this season, the most by any Power 4 team. Duke has yet to force a turnover. Tulane has forced a co-national-best seven TO this season (+6 margin).

Akron @ UAB

UAB allowed 42 to Alabama State and is allowing 7.8 yards per play this year. Akron has been outscored 78-0. Something’s gotta give!

No. 16 Texas A&M @ No. 8 Notre Dame

Texas A&M has lost 13 straight road games against ranked opponents dating back to a 2014 win at Auburn.

LOOK-AHEAD LETDOWN SPOTS

Auburn: Hosts South Alabama, visits Oklahoma next week

Oklahoma: Coming off win vs. Michigan, visits Temple, hosts Auburn next week.

Iowa State: At Arkansas State coming off the emotional win vs. Iowa

Illinois: Hosts Western Michigan, has Indiana next week

Michigan: Off loss at OU, no Sherrone Moore this week vs. CMU, at Nebraska next week

Missouri: Coming off KU win, South Carolina next week, -27.5 vs. ULL this week

Chris "The Bear" Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an "occasional" wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He's a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, "The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!" Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.

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