2025 College Football Week 1 Picks, Preview: What To Expect in Texas-Ohio State

College football doesn’t ease into the season — it kicks the door down.

Week 1 is here, and we've got the biggest season-opening showdown the sport has ever seen: Texas and Ohio State will meet in The Shoe as the No. 1 Longhorns take on the defending national champion. It really doesn’t get bigger than that, does it?

I’ll be on the call for that game on FOX, but it’s just the start. We’ve got two other top-10 clashes, some spicy non-conference showdowns, and yes — Bill Belichick’s head coaching debut at North Carolina.

So, let’s preview the top matchups of Week 1.

Texas vs. Ohio State

While this is a top-three matchup, both teams are introducing new quarterbacks. Of course, with Texas, "Arch Mania" has finally arrived. Arch Manning has to take a program with lofty expectations and deliver. I can’t wait to see him play. We got a taste of it when he made two starts last year, but this is different. He’s not only going on the road against the defending champion, but he also has the best defender in the nation staring right at him: Ohio State safety Caleb Downs. Downs’ ability to roam around was a game-changer for Ohio State last year. I’m sure he’ll play a similar role this year for the Buckeyes.

Going back to Manning, I don’t think he needs to be sensational. There’s a good chance there’s some sloppiness to this game; there always is in Week 1. But I’m certain we’ll see some flashes. He’s not like his uncles, who were great. He’s more like his grandfather, Archie. He’s more mobile than Peyton and Eli Manning. I’ve said this a bunch, but Manning really reminds me of the Clemson version of Trevor Lawrence: big, tall, can control the game from the pocket, can threaten the entire field with his arm and use his athleticism when he needs to.

There’s a reason Texas is No. 1 outside of Manning, though. The talent around him is pretty good. I’m really impressed with Texas’ backfield, which consists of Quintrevion Wisner (SEC’s leading rusher) and CJ Baxter (who might be better than Wisner, but missed all of last year due to injury). Texas is also very deep and fast at wide receiver, with Ryan Wingo likely leading the charge there.

The other element of the Texas offense-Ohio State defense battle is Steve Sarkisian’s playcalling ability against new Buckeyes defensive coordinator Matt Patricia. Patricia’s an NFL coordinator, but if you recall, Sarkisian called an effective game against Wink Martindale (another defensive coordinator with an NFL background) when Texas took down Michigan. In that game, Texas used max protection, with only three receivers going out on dropbacks. I’d expect Sarkisian to do the same here.

Flipping it around, Ohio State is also introducing a once highly-touted recruit at quarterback: Julian Sayin. After winning a pretty competitive battle against Lincoln Kienholz, Sayin’s reward is getting the keys to drive a really talented offense. He’s got the best player in college football at his disposal in Jeremiah Smith, who needs to touch the ball early and often. It might be difficult as Texas actually prevented Smith from getting the ball in the CFP semifinal last year.

Ohio State was able to overcome Smith’s quiet night thanks to running backs TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins. Those guys are now gone, though. In addition to breaking in a new backfield and quarterback, Ohio State is also dealing with some changes along the offensive line.

Because of that, Ohio State shouldn’t send Sayin out there and ask him to win the game. He needs to play on safe mode. He might not like hearing that, but it’s the truth. To quote my pal Urban Meyer, just get two first downs and things will fall into place from there because they’ll be able to change the field position.

On top of breaking in new talent around Sayin, the other reason why Ohio State should play it safe with its quarterback is pretty simple: Texas’ defense is pretty great. It has a preseason All-American at all three levels of its defense. Colin Simmons headlines the group of front, while Anthony Hill might be the best linebacker in the nation. Finally, Michael Taaffe has emerged as a pretty incredible safety after being a walk-on.

I’m expecting a low-scoring game, with both offenses running the ball early as each side is also welcoming a few new faces along their defensive lines. It might be a mistake from either Manning or Sayin that ends up costing their team the game.

LSU vs. Clemson

Clemson was my preseason pick to win the national championship, but it’ll get tested right away in a matchup that might be the best quarterback battle we see all season. Cade Klubnik and Clemson are largely built from within, staying out of the transfer portal as Dabo Swinney hasn’t taken that modern style we’ve seen other coaches take.

Heading into this season, that approach might pay off for Swinney. Sixteen of his starters are returning from last year. With that much returning talent, Clemson might be set up to have the most players picked in the 2026 NFL Draft. If so, that’s a good trend to follow as the teams who had the most players selected in each of the last four drafts won the national title the previous year. In addition to Klubnik, the defense has a lot of star power with defensive tackle Peter Woods and edge rusher T.J. Parker leading the unit.

LSU, meanwhile, is facing a lot of pressure, particularly Brian Kelly. Kelly is a heck of a coach, but leaving Notre Dame for LSU and watching the Fighting Irish get better isn’t great. Kelly has also largely struggled in big games during his time in Baton Rouge, losing three straight season-opening matchups. This opener might be the toughest yet for LSU in Kelly’s tenure there.

LSU brought in one of the best portal classes in the nation and it’s a playoff-caliber team, but winning this game is a tough ask.

Pick: Clemson wins, 27-21 (Clemson -3.5)

Notre Dame vs. Miami (Fla.)

This might not be the late-80s version of this rivalry, but it should be pretty incredible. Fresh off a national championship game appearance, Marcus Freeman has Notre Dame positioned to make another run in 2025. He’s recruited better than Notre Dame has had in recent memory, with Jeremiyah Love being the running back in my mind entering the year.

On top of having high-end talent, Notre Dame does the things you fundamentally need to do in order to win at the top level. It’s physical and wins at the top level, which is evident in its victories over Georgia and Penn State in the CFP.

That will also allow quarterback CJ Carr to lean on the offensive line in his first career start. The Fighting Irish are also better at wide receiver than people think, with Jaden Greathouse popping late last year. Because of that, I think there’s a chance Notre Dame takes a step forward in the passing game this year.

But going on the road against a very good Miami team is difficult. The Hurricanes also have a new quarterback, but an experienced one. Carson Beck hasn’t had a lot of practice time at Miami, though, thanks to the elbow injury he suffered in the SEC Championship Game at Georgia last season. He’s largely throwing to transfers on the outside, which is my big question. Notre Dame has a talented secondary, too. Miami does have running backs and Mario Cristobal, true to its nature, has recruited well along the offensive line.

Ultimately, which of these two coaches do you trust more in big games? It has to be Freeman. Cristobal hasn’t won a big game yet at Miami, and the playcalling has been shaky at times. What Notre Dame does well should travel, too.

Pick: Notre Dame wins, 24-17 (Notre Dame -2.5)

Alabama vs. Florida State

When we first heard about this matchup a year ago, we thought, "Oh man, what a game." Now, it’s a bit more lopsided, and the spread is indicative of that, as Alabama is a 13.5-point favorite on the road.

The oddsmakers are right to feel that way with the Crimson Tide. It’s been a quiet season in Tuscaloosa as we’ve been talking about all the other top-10 teams. Sure, Kalen DeBoer’s first year wasn’t great. But I trust DeBoer. His track record speaks for itself, going 113-16 so far in his career as a head coach. I know this is more difficult than his other stops, but he’ll have his right-hand man back with him at offensive coordinator this year. After a year-long dalliance with the Seattle Seahawks, Ryan Grubb is working with DeBoer again, which is great for quarterback Ty Simpson.

Jalen Milroe had 10 turnovers in Alabama’s four losses, so Simpson has to improve on that. Simpson will also have one of the best wide receivers in the nation with Ryan Williams, but running back Jam Miller is out for a bit. Ultimately, I think Simpson develops just fine and Alabama becomes potent on offense.

If that happens, watch out because Alabama’s loaded on defense. This defense might be one of the best in all of America as DeBoer has continued to help the Tide recruit at a high level. It might not be Nick Saban running the show, but this should still be a great program that contends for the SEC title.

I think we see that in this game as Florida State overhauled the roster and its coordinators this offseason. At some point, Mike Norvell has to see what’s going on here, which is that he’s had more losing than winning seasons in his first five years at Florida State. This is also a program that’s stuck in the portal, and I don’t think you can build a team that way.

Pick: Alabama wins, 34-17 (Alabama -13.5)

Auburn vs. Baylor

This is a really under-the-radar game in Week 1. I also think this is a tough task for Auburn. Baylor quietly won eight games last year, going on a six-game winning streak to close the regular season. Quarterback Sawyer Robertson returns for the Bears with a lot of talent returning alongside him.

Hugh Freeze is really facing some pressure as he enters his third year at Auburn, posting losing records in each of his first two seasons. I know incoming quarterback Jackson Arnold didn’t have a great situation around him at Oklahoma last year, but he didn’t do much to contribute either. However, he’ll have some talented pass catchers around him at Auburn.

I expect this game to be tight, so I’m going with the quarterback I trust more and the home team.

Pick: Baylor wins, 31-28 (Baylor +2.5)

TCU vs. UNC

Bill Belichick, welcome to college football.

I’m actually a believer in Belichick in his first year at North Carolina and beyond. I think UNC can have a quality year and win eight games. Part of it is because I don’t love the ACC, which should allow Belichick to work his magic in one-score games. This team should also improve at holding onto the football and in situational play, which helps you win tight matchups. However, this is UNC’s second-toughest matchup of the season as it tests out nearly a completely new roster.

TCU, meanwhile, has been overlooked in the Big 12 title race. I blame myself because this Horned Frogs team is really talented. Quarterback Josh Hoover helped them win nine games last year, throwing for over 300 yards per game. That offense really took off in the second half of the season.

Pick: TCU wins, 27-20 (TCU -3.5)

Joel Klatt is FOX Sports' lead college football game analyst and the host of the podcast "The Joel Klatt Show." Follow him at @joelklatt and subscribe to the "Joel Klatt Show" on YouTube.

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