U.S. science funding uncertainty reshapes grad school choices for Canadians

After graduating with a bachelor degree in mathematics from the University of Waterloo, Kareem Alfarra had hopes of continuing his studies in the United States.

The American schools he looked at were better funded and had more opportunities than those in Canada, he said, and he'd already connected with some professors he'd like to work with.

Alfarra, 22, applied to nine American universities, hoping for options, but he ended up being waitlisted and rejected for all of them. Most of them told him informally that budget uncertainties in the U.S. were making it difficult for them to accept graduate students, he said.

He says one school even told him that in any normal year, he would have been accepted.

"I was on top of the wait list … and I would have loved to go," he told CBC. Rather than waiting to hear, Alfarra decided to accept an offer at the University of Toronto, citing the funding uncertainty and political instability of the U.S.

"I was very angry with the situation knowing that perhaps a year earlier or a few years later I would've gotten in."

While that's just one student's story, universities on both sides of the border say that uncertainty brought on by the Trump administration is reducing options and upending research opportunities for graduate students — including Canadians.

More than 10,000 Canadians went to graduate school in the U.S. last year, according to data from the Institute for International Education, with 40 per cent pursuing science and health degrees.

But there are two key federal sources that U.S. universities rely on to fund their labs and take in graduate students — the National Science Foundation (NSF) and National Institutes of Health (NIH) — that have been frozen or cut by the Trump administration.

It's been a back and forth battle, with cases before the courts, and it's unclear where things will land. But the uncertainty is enough for some universities to reduce their admissions, inevitably trickling down to Canadian applicants.

WATCH | How Trump's freeze on health research funding might hurt Canadian science:

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In a statement to the CBC, the American Association of Universities described the stakes.

"Federal research funding cuts are actively closing off career pathways for all prospective doctoral students from across the world, including those from the United States and Canada," said Emily Miller, vice president for research and institutional policy at the association.

"Universities make a significant financial commitment when they offer admission to an aspiring scientist or researcher — a commitment that is critical to student success and one they cannot meet without federal research support."

For 23 year old Canadian Jaeden Bardati, research funding was a big component in his decision to pursue his PhD in astrophysics at Caltech in Pasadena, Calif., two years ago.

"Which is kind of ironic now," he said.

Canada spent about 1.7 percent of its GDP on research and development in 2022; in the U.S., that figure was nearly 3.6 per cent in the same year.

Bardati would ultimately like to be where the top researchers in his field are, which historically had been the U.S., he says, but that may change.

Budget uncertainty makes some researchers worried whether they can maintain their labs or pay the students that work in them. Bardati says some of his classmates have been encouraged to graduate early or to fund themselves to be able to stay.

"The landscape is very turbulent … the word that's been used around here is turbulent," said Bardati, which makes it difficult for students and researchers to plan for the future.

"They're essentially trying to find a new home at the moment. And they're thinking, 'should I go to Europe or should I go to Canada?'"

Katie Marshall, associate professor in comparative physiology at the University in British Columbia, is already starting to see the effects of this shift.

She's received five applications from U.S. students to come work in her lab. "Usually, I wouldn't start seeing these kinds of applications until the fall," she said. "It's definitely unusual."

Marshall also noted that the funding cuts in the U.S. are affecting research in Canada, because cross-border collaboration means Canadian researchers have gotten funding from U.S. agencies.

"With less money, there's just fewer spots [for graduate students]."

"When I look at who I'm going to accept, I'm looking at their research experience, " said Marshall. "If I've got a great American student, it's really hard for me to say no."

While Canada can't fill the gap left by the US, it is a good time to invest in Canadian research to create more opportunities, said Marshall, noting that there has been some recent increases already.

"Increasing those investments could do a lot … for our young people, because this is an important source of jobs and training for them."