One Step Away from a Clash of Powers: 5 Signs Leave No Illusions

• There are five signals that may indicate an impending armed conflict between China and the United States.
• These include cyberattacks, tensions over Taiwan and escalation in the South China Sea.
• They need to be monitored carefully before they turn red, says the retired Navy admiral.

The United States and China have recently announced new tariffs against each other , escalating the trade war between the superpowers.

James Stavridis, a retired US Navy admiral and former commander of NATO's allied forces in Europe, noted in an article published by Bloomberg that the question is increasingly being asked whether we are heading towards open armed conflict.

I certainly hope not – but I am increasingly concerned by the signals. I spent most of my naval career in the Pacific and I have never felt that we were so close to a real clash with Beijing, he noted.

As he pointed out, there are five warning signals in the Pacific region that are already flashing yellow. "They need to be monitored carefully - before they turn red," he emphasized.

James Stavridis said China is increasingly attacking American critical infrastructure using its advanced offensive technology capabilities.

"Beijing is demonstrating not only its ability to conduct advanced cyber warfare, but also its willingness to use those capabilities. The larger the scale and impact of such attacks, the greater the risk of a wider conflict," we read.

• Air pressure on Taiwan

The retired admiral also noted that last year there were more than 3,000 violations of Taiwan's air defense identification zone - almost twice as many as in 2023. "Believe me, Admiral Sam Paparo, commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command in Honolulu, receives reports of these flights every day. It's worth keeping an eye on them, too," he wrote in Bloomberg.

• Operations in the South China Sea

China claims almost all of this vast body of water. Beijing has built at least seven artificial islands that serve as bases for its increasingly powerful navy.

That is why the activity of the Chinese Navy and Coast Guard in the South China Sea is one of the most telling signals of a potential conflict, writes James Stavridis.

China builds 20 to 30 warships a year. Its current fleet – in terms of the number of combat units – already exceeds the US fleet: over 360 ships to about 300 American ones. China's goal is to exceed the number of 400 ships. "Beijing is perfectly aware that a potential war with the US will be fought mainly at sea. That is why it is worth monitoring the pace of shipbuilding in Chinese shipyards – this is a key indicator of preparations for a serious conflict," we read.

James Stavridis said the most dangerous signal is the scale of the tariffs imposed by both sides.

It is worth recalling that World War II in the Pacific began with trade sanctions that cut Japan off from its basic raw materials – oil, steel and rubber. Many historians believe that the attack on Pearl Harbor in December 1941 was the result of a decade of economic disputes and provocative actions, he wrote.

He added that China is starting to restrict supplies of rare earth metals and strategic raw materials today. "American tariffs could cause immediate and severe damage to the Chinese economy, but Beijing's response will be the fifth key signal of a possible conflict," he noted.