Where does Carney stand on Canada's 2030 climate targets? It's not clear

Politics

Prime Minister Mark Carney is facing mounting pressure to act on climate change amid another near-record-shattering wildfire season and scorching hot summer.

But five months after taking Canada's top political job, it's unclear whether he will pursue his Liberal predecessor's deep emissions cuts.

Carney will need to make up his mind quickly, as the country is about to face a critical test. Canada has five years to meet or come as close as possible to achieving its international climate commitments.

LISTEN | Where does Carney stand on climate targets?:

Canada has just five years to meet its 2030 climate target: a 40 per cent reduction in emissions below 2005 levels. CBC’s David Thurton covers climate change and the environment for the Parliamentary Bureau, and this week guest hosts a special edition of The House to take stock of why climate experts fear the 2030 goal will not be met. In an age of weakening interest in climate change as other crises take centre stage — is there even the political will to get it done?

Those legally binding targets require the country to slash carbon pollution and other planet-warming gases by at least 40 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030.

"It is going to take a really heavy lift at this point," said the country's top climate adviser, Simon Donner, told CBC Radio's The House.

Donner is co-chair of the independent Net Zero Advisory Body, an expert group that provides independent advice to the government on achieving net zero emissions by 2050.

• What is net-zero? Check out CBC's climate glossary

"There's a lot of things in this world that are uncertain at this time, but I think it's a safe prediction … that we will not meet that target," said Serge Dupont, a former deputy minister at Natural Resources Canada.

"The targets were perhaps overly ambitious to start with.… I think it's still important we make a valiant effort to go as far as we can, but we're not going to meet that target," he said.

Environment and Climate Change Minister Julie Dabrusin was not available for an interview. But in a statement, her office said Canada is committed to reaching net-zero emissions by 2050.

"We strive towards our 2030 and 2035 targets," Keean Nembhard, press secretary for the minister, wrote in a statement.

He said the government would provide an update on its emissions reduction plan.

The federal government's January greenhouse gas projections show that Canada will fall short of its climate targets.

As the data shows, the country is on pace to miss its interim 2026 target, reducing emissions by only 16 per cent by 2026 — short of the 20 per cent required.

Moreover, modelling also shows Canada will miss its 2030 target — potentially even further than currently projected now that the carbon tax is gone.

"All we know that is happening is that we've been removing existing climate policies," Donner said.

Removing the federal carbon tax and the requirement for provinces to either use it or have their own was one of Carney's first acts as prime minister. According to one analysis, the measure has been responsible for reducing carbon pollution by less than seven per cent.

One group upset with the way the federal government is addressing global warming is Last Generation. The group uses civil disobedience to demand action on climate change.

When CBC News caught up with the small group of activists, they were leaving their mark near downtown Ottawa on a summer evening.

Members were postering across the University of Ottawa campus in defiance of at least one warning not to do so.

"We're hoping that this is going to get our name out there and teach people that they can fight the climate crisis directly instead of relying on politicians who have failed us time and time again," said Benjamin Welchner, one of the organizers with Last Generation.

The group has taken part in more provocative non-violent civil disobedience, such as graffiti that says "Oil Kills" in bright pink letters, dousing a Tesla dealership in paint and climbing Montreal's Jacques-Cartier Bridge.

The group, modelled on Britain's Just Stop Oil, has a specific ask: the creation of a national climate disaster agency.

Amid the view that the world and Canada are not doing enough to reduce their carbon footprint, it's worth noting that 10 years ago, projections for global warming were far worse.

In 2015, Canada's emissions were trending to exceed greenhouse gas emission levels for 2005, the baseline year from which Canada measures progress.

Canada's electricity sector has led the way in decarbonization, slashing the sector's emissions by half. However, these gains have been offset by considerable increases in oil and gas production. The industry accounts for Canada's largest share of emissions and it has increased by 11 per cent since 2005.

How Carney will tackle concerns that fossil fuel companies have not done their fair share remains unclear. But sitting on the table are two unfinished Trudeau-era climate policies — enhanced methane regulations and an oil and gas emissions cap.

"We haven't seen [the Carney government] prepared to abandon any goals right now," said Oliver Anderson, who was director of communications for former environment minister Steven Guilbeault. Anderson is now the vice president of communications and growth at the water charity AquaAction.

"We need to see what it is that they are going to change in order to get us to that end still."

Carney has signalled an openness to listing a bitumen pipeline as part of the list of projects in the national interest that his government could fast-track. He has been supportive of renewable energy projects as well.

His government's major projects legislation, C-5, enables the federal cabinet to approve what they deem to be nation-building projects before a federal environmental assessment or Indigenous consultation is complete.

Asked about how a pipeline could impact Canada's emissions goals, Donner, the country's top climate adviser, suggested proponents and governments should avoid backing assets that could become stranded.

WATCH | Carney ends the consumer carbon tax:

During a campaign stop in Winnipeg, Mark Carney touted the official end of the consumer carbon tax, a core but divisive Liberal environmental policy.

"The question we need to ask ourselves is who is that oil being shipped to in the year 2040, in the year 2045, when the world is shifting away from using gasoline and passenger vehicles?" Donner said.

Others believe we could see a shift with Carney, who, unlike Trudeau, doesn't see climate change as "everything policy," according to Shannon Joseph, the chair of Energy for A Secure Future.

"It was [Trudeau's] economic policy, it was the foreign policy, it was the housing policy," Joseph said.

"People feel the pinch and so they've changed the priorities, and I think we're going to end up with a better, more measured solution."

But Dupont, the former Natural Resources deputy minister, believes the government needs to recalibrate its climate target for a new reality.

"There's a wider set of issues at play here for Canadians," he said.

Those issues, according to Dupont, who is now the head of public policy at the law firm Bennett Jones, include a softening of both economic growth and public support for green policies.

The Carney government will eventually have to come clean on how and if it can meet Canada's climate targets. It's legally required to do so under the Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act.