Ontario prepares to play a pivotal role in electing Canada’s next prime minister
Voters across Ontario are heading to the polls to choose Canada’s next prime minister in Monday’s federal election, knowing ballots cast in their province will decide more than one-third of the country’s ridings.
The 2025 Canadian election is being fought by candidates over 343 ridings, 122 of which are in Ontario. Parties of all stripes list Toronto’s seat-rich suburbs, in particular, as a key route to power.
In recent elections, Ontario has delivered a significant number of Liberal MPs to the House of Commons, with the party completing near-perfect sweeps of Toronto and the surrounding suburbs.
The Conservatives have traditionally performed well across rural Ontario, and the NDP has been able to rely on seats in the north and union-heavy parts of western Ontario. The Greens held Kitchener Centre at dissolution.
Heading into Monday’s election, polling suggests a two-horse race across the country, with a Liberal advantage in Ontario.
An Ipsos Global Affairs poll released at the beginning of the final week of the campaign had the Liberals at 44 per cent in Ontario, compared to 36 per cent for the Conservatives.
The NDP was at 13 per cent, followed by the People’s Party at four per cent and the Green Party at two.
That poll’s national figures had the Liberals at 41 per cent, three points ahead of the Conservatives. The difference between the two parties was within its margin of error.
In 2021, Ontario split the popular vote relatively evenly between the two parties. The Liberals picked up 39 per cent of the votes and the Conservatives won 35 per cent.
The geography of that vote, however, saw a significant Liberal advantage. The Grits won 78 seats in the province, while the Conservatives picked up less than half of that figure with 37. The NDP won five ridings.
The electoral map has been updated since the 2021 election, with five new ridings added across the country. Ontario has seen borders of some ridings shift and one new seat created, which could affect how votes translate into riding wins on Monday night.
Advance polling data from Elections Canada shows 2.8 million people voted early in Ontario. The numbers represent a 560,000-plus increase in advance poll turnout in 2021.
Toronto and the surrounding 905 suburbs are generally considered a key route to electoral victory and are often the most competitive ridings in the province.
The Liberals have enjoyed success in those areas since 2015, but before that, many sent Conservative representatives to Ottawa. Provincially, the majority of Toronto’s suburbs are held by Progressive Conservative politicians.
Through the campaign, both Liberal Leader Mark Carney and Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre have targeted ridings in Ontario.
Windsor, Scarborough and Cambridge are among the areas Carney has visited, while Poilievre has held large rallies in locations including Vaughan, Kingston and Brampton.
Polls are open in Ontario from 9:30 a.m. to 9:30 p.m. on Monday.
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