Nigel Farage facing make-or-break flashpoint for Reform UK

OPINION

The political stakes are high as they’ve ever been as we countdown to May 1 when millions of people will vote in various elections that could reshape British politics. Leaders of all the main political parties will be feeling the pressure, hoping for the best, but fearing the worst.

There will be elections in 23 of England’s 317 local authorities. This includes county council elections in Cambridgeshire, Derbyshire, Devon, Gloucestershire, Hertfordshire, Kent, Lancashire, Leicestershire, Lincolnshire, Nottinghamshire, Oxfordshire, Staffordshire, Warwickshire and Worcestershire.

There are unitary authority elections in Buckinghamshire, Cornwall, County Durham, North Northamptonshire, Northumberland, Shropshire, West Northamptonshire and Wiltshire. Plus, there’s a metropolitan district council election in Doncaster. Voters in Doncaster will also get to choose a new mayor along with those in North Tyneside.

There are metro mayoral elections for the West of England, Cambridge and Peterborough, Hull and East Yorkshire and Greater Lincolnshire. And, finally, voters in Runcorn and Helsby will go to the polls in a by-election after the previous Labour MP quit following a suspended prison sentence for punching a constituent. The geographic spread is vast and these elections will serve as a solid indicator of the country’s current political temperature.

Since taking office last July, Keir Starmer’s Labour Party has had a bumpy ride kicking off with the decision to cut winter fuel payments which may well see older voters voice their displeasure at the ballot box. Roll into this a Budget that hammered many including farmers with the inheritance tax changes, along with anyone who runs a business, and it is hard not to see the governing party losing seats in their northern heartlands.

Tory leader Kemi Badenoch is in a precarious position. Less than six months into the job and she has inherited a battered and split political party that is still trying to come to terms with its historic defeat. The last time we had these local elections four years ago the Conservatives were riding high and picked up many council seats.

This time round, public support for the party is much lower and they stand to lose hundreds of councillors. This will be Kemi’s first major test as leader and despite any predicted losses, the Conservative Party would be foolish to use this as a reason to decide they needed another new leader. All this would do is demonstrate to the electorate that they were seriously incompetent. The biggest show in town and the party most likely to benefit on May 1 is Nigel Farage’s Reform UK. They are currently the bookies’ favourite to win the Runcorn and Helsby by-election which would bring their MP tally back up to five in the House of Commons.

Reform’s campaigning has been impressive over the last few months with rallies being held in various parts of the country. The recent Birmingham event saw Farage arrive on stage in a JCB digger whilst conference host Dr David Bull did a superb job of whipping up the crowd.

This US-style approach to campaigning adds much-needed sparkle to our politics and certainly achieves a cut through to voters. Farage possesses a box office quality that other political leaders would kill for. But whilst Reform has the most to gain on May 1, they also have the most to lose.

Failure to gain an extra MP or pick up significant numbers of council seats would seriously dent the party’s current momentum. Another challenge for Reform will be if they gain control of any councils as this will mean they will need to get to grips with the basket case that is local government politics and budgets. This is an area they currently have little experience of.

Both the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party will hope to pick up disenfranchised voters in all parts of the country. Ed Davey will be hoping his ‘Benny Hill of British Politics’ act of slapstick and stunts will further appeal to voters in the South East and South West. The Green Party may well benefit from those who want to punish Labour in various parts of the country. Making predictions in politics is a mug’s game, so I won’t go there. We’ve all seen over recent years how quickly the political landscape can change.

But these elections are highly significant. They could make or break for Reform. Labour will have priced in any losses and Kemi Badenoch will be hoping that her party behaves itself after a potential drubbing at a local level. For those of us who enjoy domestic politics, whether through affiliation, ideology or simply as a spectator sport, these results should give us a real sense of the current mood of the nation.