Local elections 2025: Tories face losing hundreds of seats, top election expert suggests

Kemi Badenoch's Tories face losing hundreds of council seats to Reform UK and the Liberal Democrats in next week's local elections, the country's top polling guru has warned.

Professor Sir John Curtice said the Conservatives have the "most to lose" when voters head to the ballot box across England on May 1. Around 1,600 council seats are up for grabs across 23 authorities in the first major vote since last year's General Election.

While Labour's support has dramatically fallen since winning power, Sir John said the local elections "take place almost entirely in traditionally true blue Tory territory". And the last time most were contested - back in 2021 - Boris Johnson was riding high in the polls amid a "vaccine bounce" during the Covid crisis.

Writing in The Mirror, Sir John said: "In taking votes from the Conservatives, Reform could simply help the Liberal Democrats, who always do better in local elections than in the national polls, take key seats from Kemi Badenoch ’s party, such as in Oxfordshire.

"Despite the party’s current unpopularity, even Labour might pick up some Tory seats too, with Nottinghamshire a key target."

But he added: "Although the thinly spread nature of Reform UK’s vote was a disadvantage last year, that may not be the case this year. Ahead in the national polls rather than third, the party may have just enough support to win hundreds of seats from the Conservatives, albeit mostly on narrow majorities."

In an attempt to manage bleak expectations, Ms Badenoch has already conceded the Tories could lose almost every council it is defending next week.

"It will be the first time since the general election, the greatest defeat in all parties' history, that we fight these seats," she said last month. But a Tory bloodbath at the local elections next week could lead to backbench MPs piling pressure on Ms Badenoch position as Conservative leader.

The vote will also be Keir Starmer's first major electoral test since winning power last summer with a thumping majority.

On the same day Labour will be on the defensive in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election in Cheshire with Mr Farage's party hoping for a major upset. Despite being a Labour stronghold for decades, Reform UK is hoping the party can defy expectations and deliver its first-ever by-election victory.

Elections expert Sir John also said the local elections are taking place in "unprecedented circumstances" with Labour, the Tories and Reform UK almost tied in the national polls.

He added: "Never before have both Labour, whose current average poll rating is just 24%, and the Conservatives, on 22%, been so unpopular at the same time. Both are struggling to keep pace with Reform, narrowly ahead on 25%. British politics was once a two-horse race between Conservative and Labour. Now it is a fragmented five-way battle."