How Republicans are planning to win the 2026 midterms without Trump on the ballot

Republican candidates running in the 2026 midterm elections are ramping up for a campaign cycle in lockstep with President Donald Trump, their party kingmaker who's keenly invested in their races, which will determine much about how the latter half of his second term will play out.

National Republicans are focused on retaining control of both chambers of Congress during the elections, ensuring that the legislative portion of Trump's presidency can carry on. With Democratic control, they could ramp up investigations and oversight hearings that could put his administration on the defensive.

The president is expected to be engaged in the midterms, campaigning for Republican candidates and having a hand in messaging and candidate selection, a Republican official close to the White House told ABC News, in order to prevent messy primaries or bids from non-Trump-aligned options.

"[The White House is] very involved in making sure we have the right candidates next year, that we're backing the right folks and that we're basically prepared and ready to go," the official told ABC News. "The thinking basically started even before the president took office, like it's been a fantastic change compared to 2017, 2018."

"People on our side remember what it was like to deal with all of these investigations ... and how much it distracted and hurt the president's agenda. So I do think, especially on our side, when we're talking to our base, we're going to remind voters, you need to get out and vote to give the president a full four years."

To win races, Republicans are strategizing on how to mobilize Trump voters, whose turnout has historically been lower in off-presidential election cycles, the Republican official and other GOP political operatives said. Ongoing pushes from Trump and other Republicans for mid-cycle redistricting in order to gain additional House seats are another way the party is shoring up its chances for victory.

A year out from the midterms, an ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll published on Sunday finds 46% of registered voters saying they would support the Democratic candidate in House races if the election were held today. That's a significant drop from a November 2017 ABC News/Washington Post poll, when voters had an 11-percentage-point preference for Democratic candidates.

“While Democrats face historically low approval ratings, a Sanders’ socialists vs. Schumer’s favorites proxy war for control of their Party, and an identity crisis after a decade of standing for nothing except hating President Trump, Republicans are united behind an agenda of promises made, promises kept to American working families who want to see Washington focused on the issues that matter to them," National Republican Senatorial Committee spokesperson Joanna Rodriguez said in a statement to ABC.

White House already involved in midterms

The White House has already been visible, with Vice President JD Vance holding rallies in the battleground states of Michigan and Georgia.

"I hope you remember when you're voting in 2026, you have a choice between somebody who tried to fight for the illegal aliens and somebody who tried to fight against the drug cartels," Vance said in Howell, Michigan, on Sept. 17.

Trump has confirmed what could be one of the largest mobilization strategies for the party-- a 'midterm convention' ahead of the 2026 races.

"The Republicans are going to do a Midterm Convention in order to show the great things we have done since the Presidential Election of 2024," Trump wrote on his social media platform in September.

Meanwhile, Democrats are cognizant of Republicans' ramped up mobilization efforts, attempting to counter them by making strides early to be more competitive in future races.

"One thing that the Republicans have done, and quite sophisticatedly, is they run a permanent campaign. They never stop organizing. They never stop communicating," DNC Chair Ken Martin said in an interview with ABC News. "We're not going to wait until '28 to start campaigning for president. We're certainly not going to wait until '26 to start our work for the '26 elections."

Republican candidates will 'sink or swim' with Trump

Republicans are looking to convince voters that Trump is part of the ticket, even though his name will not appear on any ballot, according to several Republican operatives interviewed by ABC News for this story.

"We need to make sure that voters who come out for Trump when he's on the ballot do so even though he's not on the ballot, mobilizing and really engaging the GOP base in a way that we did in 2024," longtime political operative Matt Gorman told ABC News. "Republicans are rolling in the same direction this time around. And that's a huge advantage we have."

They're prepared to "sink or swim" with the president and sell his agenda to voters.

"I think everyone has said from the beginning that we are going to sink or swim with the president. He was just elected on a mandate. We feel that a lot of the policies that he's been able to deliver were promises made, promises kept, and the fact that he and the White House continue to message on that is going to be very important," one GOP political operative involved in 2026 midterm races, granted anonymity to discuss internal dynamics, told ABC News.

Emphasis is still being placed on candidates to work on the infrastructure, fundraising and messaging to be well-positioned to run winning campaigns. Trump will be a "big asset" on the campaign trail, the operative said.

"The president's popularity, the president's agenda, are also going to be on the ballot in a certain way, and I think everyone is prepared to sell that to voters," the operative added.

But some of the president's individual agenda items remain unpopular. A majority of Americans also disapprove of how Trump is handling every issue measured in the ABC poll. Over 6 in 10 disapprove of how Trump is handling tariffs, the economy and managing the federal government.

Still, some campaigns see Trump's presidential actions as a net positive, even in battleground states where industries such as manufacturing and agriculture are directly impacted by many of the White House's immigration and tariff moves.

And some Republicans are shrugging off any one issue as being influential enough to tip the scales.

"I don't think it's going to be dominated by health care," Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., laughed off a question at the Capitol on Thursday about whether the issue, which is being seized upon by Democrats as a cornerstone topic ahead of the elections, would be able to aptly message on the matter heading into the midterms.

"It's going to be dominated by what party is making you safe and prosperous. It's not going to be dominated by subsidies. It's going to be dominated by the big stuff," he said.

Republicans dedicated to avoiding contentious primaries, National Republican operatives say

Republicans are not struggling this cycle with having many messy primaries, with the White House and the national Republican Party steering Republican candidates in key toss-up races in order to fend off messy primaries and secure swing districts with Trump-aligned candidates, the Republican official said, echoing several GOP operatives interviewed for this story.

"I think that speaks volumes about the way that we're operating this time, compared to what it was like during the first administration," the Republican official close to the White House said.

They're also looking to leverage Democrats' apparent lack of party unity, which has contributed to several messy Senate primary fights in key battleground states like Maine, Michigan, Texas and Iowa.

"Our ducks are in a row," the official said, "it's an advantage that the Democrats had in '22 that we didn't-- messy primaries this time around, that script is completely flipped."

While Republicans have largely avoided significant MAGA proxy battles, a few have still percolated. In Kentucky, Trump has weighed in against Rep. Thomas Massie, endorsing the six-term congressmember's challenger over his opposition to the GOP megabill that's been Trump's chief achievement on the Hill this Congress.

In Louisiana, incumbent Sen. Bill Cassidy is facing several primary challengers after his past criticism of Trump.

A messy primary is also brewing in Texas, but is viewed as less of a MAGA-on-MAGA battle, and more of a personal fight between Trump loyalist Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, who has also been a longtime ally of the president.