Carney says there's been a 'rupture.' What's he going to do about it this fall?
Even while Mark Carney has been accused of lowering his elbows in regards to American tariffs, he continues to frame the larger challenge facing this country in stark terms.
"What's going on is not a transition," Carney said last week in Mississauga, Ont., while announcing an array of measures for industries impacted by the American administration's actions. "It's a rupture. And its effect will be profound."
He saw the arrival of a "new age of economic nationalism and mercantilism" and described the current moment as an "age of adversity." He invoked major nation-building infrastructure projects of the past and the national mobilization that took place in Canada during and after the Second World War.
"At this moment of profound change, we bear the same responsibilities and we should have the same ambitions as those who came before," he said.
He made the same statement about a "rupture" a few days later in St. John's, then again when he spoke to Liberals in Edmonton and then once more when he announced the first set of major "nation-building" infrastructure projects that his government is willing to throw its political and practical weight behind.
As measured purely in terms of time served, Carney is still a novice politician — when he rises in the House of Commons on Monday to participate in question period it will be exactly eight months, less a day, since he announced his candidacy for leadership of the Liberal Party. But he seems to grasp the value of rhetoric to frame both a problem and a cause — "rupture" is at least a more evocative term than the "hinge moment" that Carney had previously asked Canadians to imagine.
And Canadians may be with him on this — 59 per cent of Canadian respondents to a Pew Research survey conducted this past spring said the United States was this country's greatest international threat. Six years ago, just 20 per cent of Canadians said that. (As if to underline the odd predicament Canada finds itself in, 55 per cent of Canadians also said the U.S. was this country's most important ally.)
The tariffs imposed on Canadian steel, aluminum and automobiles are a real and immediate problem for the economy. The greater challenge — the "rupture," as it were — is a changed United States of America that takes a very different view of the world.
But even if a majority of Canadians agree with the approximate nature of the threat, there's no guarantee that they will agree with how Carney chooses to respond. And with Parliament reconvening next week, the prime minister — and Canadians — are in the midst of a making a lot of choices in short order.
"The character of our government will be revealed by our focus and our delivery," he told Liberal MPs in Edmonton, riffing on the idea that politics, like hockey, reveals an individual's character. "We're all here to get big things done for Canadians at a scale and a pace that hasn't happened for generations. And that means … the change is only just beginning."
The major projects push is onThe first of those choices was announced on Thursday with the initial "tranche" of major infrastructure projects.
Even if nearly every Canadian could agree that the process for approving and building major infrastructure projects could stand to move faster, that discussion is easier to have in the abstract than it is when specific projects are identified. And predictably Thursday's announcement has produced disagreements — environmental groups are concerned about both the greenhouse gas emissions that will result from expanding a major liquefied natural gas project in British Columbia and the possibility that public funds will be used to support it.
Carney suggested that a subsequent wave of projects could include a new pipeline paired with a major initiative — the Pathways Alliance — to capture and store carbon emissions from Alberta's oilsands. While Alberta Premier Danielle Smith seemed optimistic on Thursday, many other Canadians might be less than enthusiastic — at least if a private proponent can be found to build that pipeline.
Any decision to use public funding to support any of the government's chosen infrastructure projects may factor into a deeper discussion about what the federal government should spend money on — a discussion that should start to crystallize with the Carney government's first budget this fall.
Carney allowed himself earlier this month to use the word "austerity" to describe that budget, but that austerity promises to be selective — driven by a narrow spending review — and coupled with significant new spending in national defence and housing. It is possible that Carney could find himself having to defend both spending cuts and the decision to run a sizable deficit.
"We made a clear commitment to Canadians to bring a new fiscal discipline to the federal budget," Carney told Liberal MPs. "These are tough times. We have to make tough choices for a better future."
The prime minister's use of the word "tough" implies an understanding that some of those choices will be unpopular, at least with the people most directly impacted.
Sometime before or after that budget is tabled, the government has also promised to release a new climate strategy — a plan that is shaping up to answer a number of questions about which Trudeau-era climate policies the Carney government is willing to keep.
A crisis always gives a leader greater room to act and the "rupture" may give Carney wide latitude to do harder and tougher things. According to public polling, the new prime minister is also still working with a decent amount of public goodwill, including a decided advantage when Canadians are asked to compare Carney and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre directly.
Is the government paying too much attention to Trump?But for many Canadians, Donald Trump is not their only — or maybe even primary — concern.
Recent polling conducted by Abacus Data found that when asked to choose between "Trump's policies and unpredictability" and "domestic concerns like housing affordability, health care and rising costs," 60 per cent of respondents believed those domestic concerns were the greater threat facing Canada over the next two years. And 61 per cent said the federal government was paying "far" or "somewhat" too much attention to Trump.
The Carney government's initial response to such sentiments might come soon. The prime minister has vowed to move with just as much force and speed to build more housing and a new federal agency to lead that effort has been promised for this fall.
Of course, it's not easy — or even possible — to draw a neat line between domestic issues and Canada-U.S. relations. But that poll is a reminder that little else matters — not even the need to respond to seismic geopolitical change — if you can't afford a place to live.
In the face of a rupture — and amid so much other activity — housing might seem secondary. For the sake of the Carney government's response to the rupture, it might be foundational.
cbc.ca
