Canada election race tightens but Liberals still ahead in final week: poll
The race to form Canada’s next government is now tighter than ever as the federal election campaign enters its final week, a new poll suggests.
The latest Ipsos poll conducted exclusively for Global News found the Liberals are still in the lead, but are now just three points ahead of the Conservatives, who continue to gain momentum in the home stretch.
The results of the poll, conducted after last week’s televised leaders’ debates, show 41 per cent of surveyed Canadians would vote for the Liberals, down one point from last week, while 38 per cent said they would choose the Conservatives, who gained two points.
The New Democrats earned 12 per cent support, up one point from last week, while the Bloc Quebecois went down one point to five per cent nationally, or 25 per cent support in Quebec. The Green Party and the People’s Party of Canada each earned two per cent support.
The three-point gap between the two leading parties is within the poll’s 3.8 per cent margin of error, and the smallest since the campaign began last month.
Although just over half of voters surveyed by Ipsos said they would prefer a majority government, versus 20 per cent who want a minority, “a tightening race reduces the odds of a majority-government outcome,” the pollster said.
The Liberals had been enjoying a 12-point lead just over two weeks ago, a remarkable turnaround for a party that had been languishing in the polls behind the Tories for years under former prime minister Justin Trudeau.
The election of Mark Carney as Trudeau’s successor has boosted the Liberals’ fortunes, particularly in the face of U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats against Canada’s economy and sovereignty — an issue voters overwhelmingly see the Liberals as the best party to handle, Ipsos polling shows.
The Conservatives have been gaining ground in recent weeks, however, as they seek to highlight affordability, housing and the economy.
“At the present time, the Trump issue is kind of drifting out of focus and we’re moving back more to domestic issues, and particularly the issue of personal affordability,” said Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs. “That’s an advantage for the Conservatives.”
Trump has eased off on his public rhetoric against Canada since his phone conversation last month with Carney, who is serving as prime minister in a caretaker capacity while running as Liberal leader in the campaign.
The White House said last week that Trump still believes Canada should become part of the United States.
Carney continues to lead Poilievre as Canadians’ choice for prime minister, but their shares of support — 41 per cent for Carney, versus 36 per cent for Poilievre — have not changed from last week.
Voters are somewhat split on the question of who benefited most from the two leaders’ debates last week, according to the Ipsos poll, which found 57 per cent of Canadians had either watched or heard about the events.
Around one-third of those Canadians each said both Carney and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre won the English-language debate, with Carney slightly ahead at 33 per cent versus 30 per cent for Poilievre.
Another 24 per cent said Poilievre came out on top in the French-language debate, compared to 18 per cent who chose Carney as the winner. Twelve per cent said Bloc Quebecois Leader Yves-François Blanchet won that debate.
Between two and three per cent said NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh won either debate. One-third of voters surveyed said Singh performed worse than expected, and just 10 per cent said he exceeded expectations. Voters were more evenly split on whether Poilievre and Carney were above or below expectations.
Despite the Conservatives’ steady climb in the polls, Ipsos found that among those who watched or heard the debates, 45 per cent believe the Liberals are seeing the most momentum and popularity gains over the past couple of weeks, while 29 per cent said the Tories are gaining.
Ipsos said the number for the Conservatives “suggests an emerging underdog effect.”
Among voters polled by Ipsos, Carney still outperforms all other party leaders on positive attributes.
He’s seen as the best leader to manage tough economic times, represent Canada on the world stage, and stand up to Trump — outperforming Poilievre by double digits on those and other areas.
However, even on other attributes where Carney leads, his support has slipped over the past two weeks.
The share of Canadians who say he’s trustworthy, for example, has dropped five points to 27 per cent. So has the number of people who believe Carney will keep his election promises, which at 25 per cent is tied with Poilievre.
The Conservative leader, meanwhile, is now seen as the leader who will fight for the middle class, gaining one point to 28 per cent, while Carney’s support on that question has fallen seven points to 24 per cent.
Poilievre has also gained a point on whether he will spend taxpayers’ money wisely, but his 28 per cent is still behind 32 per cent for Carney.
“Mr. Carney leads on most things related to the economy, but they’re big things (like) how is the economy performing overall,” Bricker said.
“But when it comes down to the basics, like what are the ‘kitchen table’ economics really, that’s where interestingly enough the Conservatives have an advantage and Mr. Poilievre has an advantage, and we’ve seen that consistently throughout the campaign.
“What’s happened, though, is that issue which was really big a couple months ago … has now started to emerge again.”
Poilievre still leads Carney by double–digits on negative attributes like being seen as having a hidden agenda, as someone who will anything to get elected, and as someone who is in over the head.
Voters remain split over whether the Liberals deserve re-election (46 per cent, up two points from last week) or if it’s time for another party to take over (54 per cent, down two points). Half of Canadians surveyed said they approve of the current government’s performance.
Regionally, the Conservatives are narrowly leading the Liberals in British Columbia, 44 per cent to 43 per cent, in addition to the party’s stronger leads in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
The Liberals are leading in all other regions, including Quebec, where the Bloc Quebecois is outperforming the Conservatives, 25 per cent to 22 per cent.
“At the moment, it’s pretty hard to say whether it would be a majority or minority (government), given the distribution of the votes,” Bricker said.
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between April 17th and 19th, 2025, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of n=1,001 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed online, via the Ipsos I-Say panel and non-panel sources, and respondents earn a nominal incentive for their participation. Quotas and weighting were employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample’s composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos polls which include non-probability sampling is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 3.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadians been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. Ipsos abides by the disclosure standards established by the CRIC, found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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