'Brexit dividend' shields UK from Trump trade war after EU cave-in, says Brussels insider

The UK has been spared the brunt of Donald Trump’s escalating trade war with the European Union thanks to the "Brexit dividend" of having its own independent trade policy, a senior Brussels-based analyst has said. Pieter Cleppe, a long-time EU observer and editor of BrusselsReport.eu, said Britain’s relative freedom from Washington’s tariff threats highlighted one of its "first big Brexit wins" — and warned the EU’s position was becoming increasingly compromised by a series of concessions made under pressure.

His comments come as the European Commission weighs a third wave of retaliatory measures against Mr Trump’s sweeping import tariffs. While the UK has already agreed a 10% standard tariff with the United States, the EU now faces the threat of a 30% blanket levy on its goods, with the possibility of even tougher penalties if it proceeds with countermeasures. Mr Cleppe told the Daily Express: "We can now already conclude that the UK’s deal with the EU represents one of its first big Brexit wins. While Britain has secured a standard 10% tariff, Trump continues to haunt the EU with threats of a 30% baseline tariff and worse."

He added: "Because the UK did not even threaten with counter-tariffs, it was not forced to make concessions that erode its fiscal and regulatory sovereignty. If the UK were still bound by EU trade policy, it may have also been forced by Trump to make changes to either its tax policy or its regulatory policy."

One major point of divergence is digital taxation. While the EU has scrapped its plans to introduce a levy on big tech firms such as Apple, Meta and Amazon, following pressure from Washington, Britain has maintained its own national digital services tax — a move Mr Cleppe said would likely have been blocked had the UK remained under the EU’s common external trade policy.

The Commission formally abandoned its digital tax proposal on July 11, just days before a potential agreement with Washington, in what was widely interpreted as a political concession.

Mr Cleppe said: "While Trump already forced the EU to drop its proposal for a digital tax, the UK is able to keep this arrangement."

Another flashpoint is the EU’s anti-deforestation regulation, a complex new framework that requires exporters to prove their products are not linked to illegal land clearance. After months of lobbying from the Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR), the Commission granted the U.S. a "low-risk" classification — effectively exempting it from the strictest obligations.

The decision has sparked anger among other exporting nations, notably Malaysia and Indonesia, which have been hit with more onerous conditions.

Mr Cleppe said: "The EU’s concession to effectively exempt the United States from its new burdensome anti-deforestation rules is another example.

"Trump complained about it, and the EU caved.

"Meanwhile, other trading partners of the EU, like Malaysia, continue to be considered as 'risky', which means being subject to lots of import bureaucracy and murky EU regulatory definitions — despite the fact that Malaysia has managed to drastically reduce primary forest loss and is no longer in the top 10 of NGO rankings on tropical primary forest loss."

While EU member states remain divided over how to respond to Mr Trump’s escalating tariffs, the European Commission has proposed a second retaliatory package worth €72 billion (£62 billion), targeting sectors including autos, aircraft and agricultural machinery.

A first wave of tariffs — covering €21 billion (£18 billion) in US exports — has already been approved but remains suspended until August 6 to give room for talks.

Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic has also raised the possibility of targeting services, including restrictions on American companies accessing EU procurement contracts or operating freely in digital markets — but diplomats have so far reacted cautiously, fearing an all-out trade war.

French President Emmanuel Macron has called for the use of the EU’s Anti-Coercion Instrument, a legal mechanism that would allow Brussels to retaliate more broadly, including in non-goods sectors — but it would require backing from a qualified majority of member states.

By contrast, the UK — no longer bound by consensus-driven EU trade mechanisms — faces no such constraints, Mr Cleppe suggested.

He told the Daily Express the divergence was now becoming clearer: "This is what Brexit enables, the 'Brexit dividend'. If the UK were still tied to EU trade policy, it might now be forced to follow Brussels into these kinds of conflicts — and into giving up sovereignty in the process."

In a letter to the EU outlining his decision, Mr Trump said: "We have had years to discuss our trading relationship with The European Union, and we have concluded we must move away from these long-term, large, and persistent, trade Deficits, engendered by your tariff, and non-Tariff, policies, and trade barriers.

"Our relationship has been, unfortunately, far from reciprocal."