UPI at a crossroads? Deep unease in the informal sector as tax axe falls

By all official accounts, India’s digital payments revolution is a runaway success. The Unified Payments Interface (UPI), the government-backed real-time payment system, has truly transformed how money moves across the nation and is now gaining global recognition.As per the ACI Worldwide Report 2024, in 2023, an astounding 49% of all global real-time payment transactions originated in India, highlighting its leadership in digital payment innovation.The growth figures are staggering: UPI has gone from a modest Rs 707.93 crore worth of transactions in December 2016 to a colossal Rs 23,24,699.91 crore by December 2024, as per NPCI data.This monumental leap reflects its deep penetration, now connecting 65 million merchants and serving 491 million individuals, more than the populations of the US and UK combined.UPI's expansion into seven countries, including key markets like UAE, Singapore, Bhutan, Nepal, Sri Lanka, France and Mauritius, further solidifies its position as a global payment leader.But here’s the thing: the same system hailed as a model for the world is now facing a quiet rebellion at home, one that could threaten the very formalisation the government has been chasing for decades.The backlash begins in BengaluruThe spark igniting this unrest?A staggering Rs 29 lakh GST notice served to Shankar Gowda Hadim, a small vegetable vendor in Haveri, Karnataka. This demand was based on four years of UPI transaction data, which commercial tax officials pegged at a total turnover of Rs 1.63 crore.The vendor, who primarily sells fresh produce, items generally not even covered under GST, was utterly floored by the sudden demand.As he stated, "... Since there are no GST rules on fruits and vegetables, I did not register for GST number. But I got a notice to pay Rs 29 lakh in taxes for a business of over Rs 40 lakh... The officials have told me that if it is proven that I have done so much business in vegetables, the notice will be withdrawn..."According to ClearTax, fresh and chilled vegetables are exempt from GST. Vendors selling unprocessed produce directly sourced from farmers usually don’t require GST registration. However, with UPI payments now offering a full digital trail, tax authorities are using that data to estimate turnover, dragging many unregistered vendors into the tax net.In India, a broad range of essential goods and services are GST-exempt to keep them affordable and accessible.This includes unprocessed agricultural products like fruits, vegetables, unbranded cereals and pulses, milk, curd, honey, fresh meat, fish and eggs. Non-food exemptions cover areas like healthcare (clinical services, ambulance), education (school and university fees), public transport (non-AC buses, trains, metro), basic utilities (electricity, domestic water supply), certain financial services (loan and deposit interest) and charitable or religious services.These carve-outs are meant to shield vulnerable consumers and support core sectors of the economy.Shankar Gowda is far from alone.Around 13,000 small vendors across Karnataka, including milk booths, tea stalls and fruit sellers, have reportedly received similar GST notices.All these demands are predicated on UPI payments that, collectively, pushed their turnover above the standard GST registration threshold of Rs 40 lakh per annum for goods or Rs 20 lakh for services.Many of these vendors operate on razor-thin margins of 5% to 10%.As Abhilash Shetty, a representative of the Karnataka Pradesh Street Vendors Association, told ET, "Small businesses run with a margin of 5 to 10 per cent... The tax (GST) along with other things like penalty, comes to 50% and it is not possible for the vendors to pay such a huge tax with this. We request the government to interfere and give relaxation to the small vendors in this matter..."Adding to their distress, much of the digital inflow flagged by tax authorities often includes personal payments, loans or family transfers, not strictly business revenue. This misclassification of income further inflates the perceived turnover, leading to inflated and erroneous tax demands, as highlighted by multiple reports.Who’s actually being hit?This isn't about traders willfully evading the law; it's about a massive segment of the economy not knowing they were suddenly subject to it.Advocate Shakuntala, who represents many of these vendors, speaking to ET, criticised the government for failing to educate small vendors about their tax obligations when registering their businesses."If taxes are being imposed, why were they not educated first?... When they took the registration, they should have been made aware about the taxes on selling of goods, revenue..." she said.The core issue is that India's informal sector, which contributed approximately 45% to India's total GDP in FY 2022-23 and employed about 61% of women workers in the non-agriculture sector in 2023-24, as per Press Information Bureau, January 30, 2025, doesn’t typically employ accountants or tax advisors.It runs on experience, trust and, until recently, primarily cash. This makes the sudden, data-driven use of digital footprints for enforcement feel more like an ambush than a carefully planned reform.Cash is kingDespite the widespread adoption of UPI and the vision of a cashless economy, India remains overwhelmingly a cash-dependent society. The cash usage indicator (CUI), the share of cash usage in private final consumption expenditure, ranged from 81% to 86% in January–March 2021, and dropped to 52–60% by January–March 2024, as per RBI.Which, despite the dip, is still significant.As of July 4, 2025, currency in circulation (CiC) stood at a substantial ?38.21 lakh crore, marking a 7% year-on-year growth compared to the same period last year, as per RBI data.As per the same report, while the cash-to-GDP ratio has shown a decline (falling to 11.11% in FY25 from 11.5% in FY24), indicating a faster-growing economy and increasing digital share of overall activity, the sheer volume of physical currency in circulation points to persistent reliance.Why? Because for much of India, especially the informal economy, cash is simpler, universally accepted and, crucially, invisible.No digital trail, no notices, and no GST officers scrutinising every Rs 10–20 payment.Digital trace, tax trap?Here’s where the real problem for the informal sector lies: UPI created an undeniable digital trace.That trace is now being leveraged by tax authorities to estimate turnover, even for businesses dealing in GST-exempt goods like vegetables and milk.The moment a vendor's digital receipts cross Rs 40 lakh (for goods), they are deemed liable for GST registration and payment, regardless of whether their actual profit margins support such a tax burden.This conflation of gross digital payments with taxable revenue has triggered widespread panic.In fear of further scrutiny, many small-scale retailers and street vendors in Bengaluru and Hubballi have started displaying "No UPI, only cash" signs, as reported by ET.This direct observation indicates a significant shift back to cash transactions, driven by concerns that digital transactions are attracting the unwanted attention of the GST department.Beyond reverting to cash, some vendors are actively attempting to game the system. There are reports of traders using more than one UPI account, often under family members' names, to distribute their turnover and stay under the radar.As per reports in Deccan Herald, "Many are using multiple UPI IDs in the names of their family members to receive payments. One shop in Balepet was found using 9 UPI IDs, each of which received over ?20 lakh," while another observed that "Traders are also switching to personal accounts or relatives' UPI IDs to avoid notices."This illustrates the creative, yet problematic, lengths to which small businesses are going to avoid the perceived tax dragnet.Formalisation vs. reverse formalisationThis situation is precisely what economists warned about: an aggressive push to formalise the economy can severely backfire if not executed with nuance and empathy.SBI Research has explicitly cautioned that such "overly aggressive scrutiny" under GST, particularly in the context of UPI transactions, risks "reverse formalisation."Instead of drawing more people into the tax net and expanding the formal economy, the system could inadvertently push them back into the shadows and the untraceable cash economy, thus "undermining the very purpose of formalisation", as per the report.Speaking to CNBC-TV18, former Finance Secretary S.C. Garg succinctly put it when discussing the complexity of the tax system for semi-literate vendors:“If there is a cash transaction with no digital footprint, the tax department’s ability to aggregate transactions into turnover becomes very weak.”He pointed out the gap between the number of micro, small and medium enterprises and those actually registered under GST.“We have, by rough estimate, about 8 crore MSMEs, whereas the GST system records about 1.5 crore. There’s a vast number of small traders who need to be brought within the tax net, but in a way they can understand and easily comply with.”He cautioned against the practice of sending notices based solely on UPI receipts, urging tax officers to take a more nuanced approach.“It’s also the duty of the department to correctly work out how much of the turnover is actually exempt and what portion is taxable. Offer the option of composition, that detailed working should be done.”Many are deliberately choosing cash, not because it's more convenient, but because it feels safer. The once-celebrated "Digital India" ecosystem, especially in bustling urban markets, is now being treated with suspicion.Traders revolt, state takes noteThe mounting pressure has also spilled into the political arena. BJP spokesperson Amit Malviya sharply criticised the Congress-run Karnataka government, accusing it of "economic sabotage" and claiming that tax officials were "weaponising UPI data to raise arbitrary tax demands" to fund a "freebie culture."He asserted that "thousands of small traders in Bengaluru are now abandoning digital payments altogether," in a statement on X (formerly Twitter), widely reported by various news outlets like NDTV.The government, facing significant public and political backlash, eventually took notice.In a crucial policy shift, Karnataka’s Chief Minister Siddaramaiah announced significant relief: tax arrears for the past two to three years would be waived for small traders who register under GST and commit to paying taxes going forward.Crucially, businesses dealing solely in tax-exempt items like milk, vegetables and fruits will not be pursued further, as per The Indian Express.This is a clear signal that organised trader communities possess significant leverage, and their coordinated pushback can indeed bend policy to address ground realities.Undue or legitimate fear?From the government’s standpoint, digital payments like UPI are not just about convenience; they are key to greater financial inclusion and improved access to formal credit.Research in June 2025 indicates that informal businesses with a digital footprint are "more likely to get access to credit and financial services", as per ResearchGate. This digital trail provides verifiable transaction history, crucial for credit assessments.The Union Budget 2025-26 also acknowledges the critical need to improve credit access for Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs), which often rely on informal sources.It proposed measures like increasing credit guarantee cover for micro and small enterprises (from Rs 5 crore to Rs 10 crore) and a new customized Credit Card scheme, aiming to provide Rs 5 lakh credit to 10 lakh micro enterprises in the first year (Press Information Bureau, Union Budget 2025-26, February 4, 2025).Beyond credit, schemes like the e-Shram Portal (registering unorganised workers for social security), Pradhan Mantri Shram Yogi Maan-dhan (PM-SYM), and PM SVANidhi (micro-loans for street vendors) are all part of a broader formalisation strategy, aiming to register, insure and empower informal workers (Plutus IAS, January 22, 2025).However, if digital trails are perceived as surveillance tools and tax traps rather than credit passports, the very businesses meant to benefit from formalisation and financial inclusion will start opting out.CBDT enters the pictureWhile the immediate notices originated from state-level GST departments, the Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT), India’s direct tax body responsible for income tax, is undoubtedly monitoring this situation.The availability of granular UPI data now allows for unprecedented matching of income across various platforms. This means that even small vendors who diligently file their Income Tax Returns (ITR), like Shankar Gowda from Haveri, are now seeing their digital activity scrutinised like never before.Historically, the CBDT might have focused more on high-value individuals and corporations. But in the era of deep data, even "thelawalas" (street vendors) can no longer escape the digital radar.The commercial taxes department itself stated that notices are issued only where UPI transaction data since 2021-22 showed turnover above the GST threshold, indicating a significantly more data-driven approach to identify potential taxpayers, The Economic Times reported on July 16.The Bigger RiskIf this continues, the government might face a profound paradox: the very push to formalise the economy may inadvertently drive significant parts of it further underground.The promise of "Digital India" was inclusion, convenience and empowerment, not intimidation and an unexpected tax burden for those operating at the margins.If vendors come to associate UPI with tax trouble and punitive demands, the country could possibly see a rollback of hard-won gains in digitisation and financial transparency.The persistent rise in Currency in Circulation, coupled with the "No UPI, only cash" trend, suggests that the informal sector, despite the conveniences of digital payments, strongly desires cash to remain king for its perceived anonymity and simplicity.