Trump promised an economic revival. In his first 100 days, he's falling short.

During his campaign last year, President Trump repeatedly attacked former President Joe Biden for his handling of the economy, vowing to boost economic growth and lower inflation. But 100 days into his second term in the White House, the president is struggling to deliver on those promises.

Mr. Trump's signature policies on trade, immigration and government spending have not only failed to spark economic growth — they're contributing to a sharp contraction in activity and threaten to re-ignite inflation, data shows. Economists also warn that the chances of a U.S. recession are rising.

For millions of employers around the country, the Trump administration's helter-skelter approach to imposing tariffs on key trading partners, along with just about every other country on the planet, has been challenging, corporate executives and small business owners have told CBS News.

"I can't think of a precedent for anything like this," Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at investment advisory firm Oxford Economics, told CBS MoneyWatch of the impact of Mr. Trump's first 100 days on the economy.

"President Reagan, for instance, implemented a lot of changes in terms of tax policy and defense spending and cuts, and those things had big impacts," she added, "but the element here that's quite different is the approach, which has been quite inconsistent and chaotic."

While Mr. Trump's loyal base of supporters continues to voice support, among other voters there's also a widespread and growing belief that the administration is too focused on tariffs and not focused enough on lowering prices, according to CBS News polling about the president's first 100 days in office.

Such concerns come as the White House makes a sharp break with the country's traditional playbook on global trade. The result, say critics, includes the highest tariffs in more than a century; sudden, confusing shifts in tariff policy and major damage to the U.S.' geopolitical relationships.

"Tariffs have been an unmitigated disaster, economically," former Senator Phil Gramm, a Republican and erstwhile economics professor at Texas A&M University, told CBS MoneyWatch. "There's no doubt about it that the tariff policy in and of itself will drive up prices because tariffs are a tax. And remember, 61% of imports are component parts to be used in the production of goods and services in America."

Gramm added, "I want to emphasize that the harm of tariffs isn't just inflation — it's what they do for efficiency and economic growth."

The Trump administration stands by its economic record to date, with White House spokesman Kush Deai saying in a statement to CBS MoneyWatch that "President Trump's America First policies are delivering much-needed economic relief for everyday Americans while laying the groundwork for a long-term restoration of American Greatness."

"Within 100 days of President Trump's second term in office, Americans saw the first monthly price drop in years in the March inflation report, while industry leaders ranging from Apple to Hyundai to Nvidia have made trillions in historic investment commitments to reshore manufacturing back to the United States," Desai added. "President Trump delivered a historic economy in his first term, and he's running back the success in his second term."

Already, the U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing. Business surveys in April suggest the U.S. is headed for "a sluggish pace of growth," according to Pantheon Macroeconomics, which pointed to what it calls an "an existential crisis" for businesses, created by Mr. Trump's tariffs.

The country's gross domestic product — the total annual value of all the goods and services produced in the U.S. — is forecast to slow to 0.8% in the first three months of 2025, a sharp decline from 2.4% in the fourth quarter of last year, according to economists polled by financial services firm FactSet. For the year, economic growth is predicted to slow to 1.9%, versus 2.8% in 2024, FactSet data shows.

Economists warn that the U.S. could slip into a recession due to the impact of Mr. Trump's tariffs. Prior to Mr. Trump's inauguration on Jan. 20, economists largely gave the U.S. economy a good rating, pointing to its strong growth, low unemployment and progress in bringing inflation under control.

Businesses large and small say the tariffs will cause disruptions, with almost 900 companies in the last 30 days alone citing the barrage of new U.S. levies in their earnings calls. That compares with 100 mentions in December 2024, according to transcripts posted by FactSet. Earlier this month, the CEOs of Walmart and Target privately warned Mr. Trump that the tariffs could disrupt supply chains and lead to empty shelves within weeks.

"Most businesses plan to pass these costs on to their consumers, which will make things more expensive, and we're going to see cuts in consumer spending as a result," Vanden Houten of Oxford Economics said, adding that her firm isn't forecasting a recession although it has pared its GDP outlook. "That's less revenue for businesses."

Mr. Trump campaigned on a pledge to end the "inflation nightmare," vowing that if he would bring down prices "very quickly" in a second term.

But 100 days into his new administration, consumers are skeptical about Mr. Trump's vow to tackle inflation, with 63% telling CBS News in new polling that they believed his policies would cause grocery prices to go up. Only 15% said they believe his administration will help lower their grocery bills.

Consumers are clearly worried about tariffs, with the same CBS News poll finding that 55% of respondents said Mr. Trump doesn't have a clear plan for tariffs and trade. Americans now expect inflation to rise to 6.5% a year, according to the University of Michigan's closely watched consumer sentiment index — a potentially self-fulling outlook that could cause consumers to pull back on spending.

So far, however, inflation data shows that price increases eased to 2.4% in March, down from 2.8% in February. Falling gas prices have come as a relief for motorists, with the national average for a gallon of regular gas now at $3.17, compared with $3.66 a year ago, according to AAA.

Still, many economists forecasts that inflation will pick up later this year as the impact of tariffs works its way through the economy.

Mr. Trump maintains that his tariff policies will benefit the U.S. economy over the long term. In his view, the cost of the tariffs will spur both U.S. and foreign businesses to expand in the U.S., spawning jobs for American workers and reinvigorating the U.S. manufacturing sector.

Since Mr. Trump's inauguration, some businesses have said they are investing in domestic manufacturing, with Apple planning a $500 billion expansion of its U.S. facilities over four years and IBM on Monday announcing a $150 billion investment to "fuel the economy."

The president also maintains that tariffs will bring in trillions in new federal revenue , helping to offset an extension of his 2017 tax cuts currently being hammered out by Republican lawmakers. But many economists are skeptical that his tariffs could bring in as much as Mr. Trump claims, as consumers will likely reduce their spending on foreign goods when their prices rise.

"Consumers have to be confident to affect their spending," noted Donald Boudreaux, an economist at George Mason University (whose book with Sen. Gramm, "The Triumph of Economic Freedom: Debunking the Seven Great Myths of American Capitalism," will be published next month). "The current policy is reducing their confidence."

For his part, Mr. Trump has acknowledged that the impact of U.S. tariffs will cause "some pain" for Americans, while adding in a February social media post that "IT WILL ALL BE WORTH THE PRICE THAT MUST BE PAID."

Wall Street's reaction to the Trump administration's economic policies has been clear: The S&P 500 index has lost 10% of its value since reaching a post-inauguration high on February 19, putting the broad-based market into correction territory.

The dollar has lost about 9% of its value since Mr. Trump's inauguration, according to the U.S. dollar index, which compares the value of the greenback against a basket of foreign currencies. Typically, investors rush to the bond market in times of economic uncertainty, but in recent weeks bond prices have slid and yields have risen — signs investors are rattled by the impact of Trump administration policies.

"I would emphasize that this movement in the asset markets is indeed unusual, and it happened particularly after April 2, 'Liberation Day'," or the day when Mr. Trump announced tariffs on almost every nation on Earth, Boudreaux said. "It can only be explained by global investor fears of what might happen in the U.S. economy."

He added, "It's too soon to tell how far those fears will go, but the early signs aren't cheery."

To be sure, mounting anxieties among consumers, businesses and investors don't by themselves herald an inevitable economic downturn. And so far, the economy remains resilient, with unemployment near a 50-year low and inflation edging down to 2.4% in March.

Some economists also point to what they view as positives in Mr. Trump's agenda, such as prospects for tax cuts and deregulation, which could spur economic growth. And Mr. Trump has touted his administration's efforts to slash federal spending, overseen by Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency, as a win for taxpayers.

"We found hundreds of billions of dollars of waste, fraud and abuse," Mr. Trump told Time Magazine in an interview this month.

DOGE, by its account, has cut about $160 billion in costs, or about 2.4% of the federal government's roughly $6.8 trillion in annual spending. But some critics have pointed out that the cuts will ultimately cost taxpayers due to rehiring federal workers who were mistakenly fired, lower productivity of remaining workers and through lower tax collections from the IRS, which is reducing its staffing under DOGE's direction.

In the meantime, some observers say the biggest hurdle to Mr. Trump's economic goals is of his own creation.

"We want Trump to succeed — in criticizing this trading policy, it's the policy we're criticizing," Sen. Gramm said. "I don't believe the president can achieve what he wants to achieve for America unless his trade policy changes."

In:
• Economy
• Tariffs
• Trump Administration