Small Businesses Show Cautious Optimism in Q1 Despite Tariff and Economic Concerns, OnDeck Report Finds

A new report from small business lender OnDeck, in partnership with document AI platform Ocrolus, finds that while small business owners remain largely optimistic about their growth potential, economic uncertainty is prompting many to take precautionary steps.

According to the Small Business Cash Flow Trend Report, released on May 20, 2025, 93% of small businesses surveyed said they anticipate either significant or moderate growth in 2025. This figure reflects only a slight dip from the 94% who shared the same outlook in the fourth quarter of 2024.

However, that optimism comes with increased caution. More than half of small businesses (55%) say they’ve already taken preemptive action in response to potential tariff changes, bracing for possible financial or operational disruptions. These actions include front-loading inventory and securing additional capital to stabilize cash flow.

“The small business community is resilient, and we see them working hard to prepare themselves to weather certain environmental factors such as tariffs,” said Jim Granat, Co-President of Small Business at Enova. “Whether it’s additional capital needed for front-loading inventory or help with general cashflow demands, OnDeck is committed to supporting small businesses with accessible, transparent and dependable financing.”

The report also shows a significant uptick in AI adoption, especially in marketing functions. Sixty-nine percent of respondents reported frequent use of artificial intelligence tools to assist with marketing-related tasks, a signal that digital transformation continues to take root among smaller enterprises.

Meanwhile, the report highlights a notable shift in lending preferences. Seventy-six percent of businesses say they’re now bypassing traditional banks in favor of non-bank lenders, marking an all-time high in the survey’s history. This trend suggests small business owners are seeking more flexible and faster financing solutions in today’s rapidly shifting economic environment.

“AI-powered analytics infrastructure enables lenders to evaluate real-time cash flow data to identify more qualified businesses and expand access to the capital they need to navigate uncertainty,” said David Snitkof, SVP of Growth at Ocrolus.

The findings are based on responses from 437 small businesses with existing working capital loans, along with data from over 2 million small business applications submitted for working capital financing over the past 15 months. The survey was conducted nationwide between February 17–27, 2025.

The full report, including detailed survey results, is available at ondeck.com/small-business-trends.

OnDeck, part of Enova International (NYSE: ENVA), partnered with Ocrolus to produce the quarterly report. Together, the companies say they aim to provide actionable insights to help small businesses better understand their financial positions and plan accordingly.