Russia, India, China: Can the old troika deliver new gains?

At the upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit that'll be held in Tianjin from August 31 to September 1, all eyes will be on a potential geopolitical shake-up: the revival of the Russia-India-China (RIC) troika.The concept isn’t new. In the late 1990s, Russian statesman Yevgeny Primakov, who later became prime minister, envisioned RIC as a strategic counterweight to US dominance in the unipolar post-Cold War world.Today, with trade tensions, tariffs and sanctions reshaping global economics, Moscow is pushing to resurrect the alliance as a shield against political and economic isolation.But the RIC is complicated. As Bloomberg notes, it has always been a “marriage of convenience,” burdened by mutual suspicion, historical rivalries and stark economic imbalances.While Russia, India and China share grievances with Washington, cohesion has always been fragile, with old tensions, particularly between India and China, continuing to cast a shadow.Primakov’s idea was simple in theory -- a triangle of Moscow, New Delhi and Beijing that could collectively counterbalance US influence. Fast forward to 2025, and Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is again championing the cause. Speaking in Perm, Russia, on May 29, Lavrov said:“I would like to confirm our genuine interest in the earliest resumption of the work within the format of the troika, Russia, India, China, which was established many years ago on the initiative of Yevgeny Primakov and which has organised meetings more than 20 times at the ministerial level… Now that, as I understand, an understanding has been reached between India and China on how to calm the situation on the border, it seems to me that the time has come to revive this RIC troika.”Beijing has signalled support, framing a strong trilateral as a vehicle to uphold global peace, security and stability.Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said on July 17, “China-Russia-India cooperation not only serves the respective interests of the three countries but also helps uphold peace, security, stability and progress in the region and the world.”This week in Tianjin, the three nuclear powers will meet under the SCO umbrella, putting the RIC’s revival to the test.For the Kremlin, a successful trilateral gathering would demonstrate a powerful alignment capable of countering US influence. But entrenched India-China tensions and deep economic disparities among the three nations mean a meaningful breakthrough is far from guaranteed.A troika born from cold war shadowsRIC’s origins lie in the late 1990s, when Russia sought to reassert itself globally.Primakov envisioned a strategic triangle to counter US dominance, leveraging the economic, military and demographic heft of three populous, resource-rich nations. On paper, it promised clout; in practice, mistrust and competition repeatedly undercut cohesion.The most obvious obstacle is the India-China border dispute. Stretching 3,488 kilometres across the Himalayas, it has long been a flashpoint.The 1962 war left enduring scars, and in 2020, violence erupted in Ladakh’s Galwan Valley, producing the deadliest clash in decades. Diplomatic relations froze, visa restrictions followed, and trade in some sectors was curtailed.While recent agreements on border demarcation and easing trade frictions have reduced immediate tensions, scepticism persists.Happymon Jacob, founder and director of the Council for Strategic and Defense Research, told the Hindustan Times, “While serious violence may have been averted for now, a lasting rapprochement is unlikely. It’s hard for New Delhi to be fully confident of Beijing’s intentions, especially in light of its military assertiveness in areas like the South China Sea and Taiwan.”India’s concerns are compounded by Beijing’s close ties with Pakistan. Since the Cold War, China has been Islamabad’s principal defence partner.In May, during the clash with India, Bloomberg reported Pakistan deployed Chinese-made J-10C jets with additional support in air defence and satellite capabilities, heightening India’s strategic anxieties.India-China-Russia in focusAccording to Manish Bhandari, CEO of Vallum Capital, India has moved decisively to strengthen economic ties with China.When External Affairs Minister Jaishankar met Xi Jinping in Beijing on July 15, 2025, with $127.7 billion in trade at stake, both sides cut red tape to keep commerce flowing.By July 24, India had reinstated tourist visas for Chinese nationals, while reports says that approvals for foreign direct investment and fintech projects were expedited to keep commerce moving.This is part of a bigger story: the rise of three economic giants, China, India and Russia.Together, they account for $53.9 trillion in GDP (PPP), nearly a third of the world’s total output. Their exports top $5 trillion, with $4.7 trillion in foreign reserves, 38% of the global total, and a combined population of 3.1 billion, roughly 38% of humanity.Combined military spending hit $549 billion, a fifth of the world’s defense budget, while they consume 35% of global energy.Each brings distinct strengths: China’s manufacturing might, Russia’s energy dominance, and India’s dynamic service economy.Together, they signal a shift from a unipolar world dominated by the West to a multipolar order where Eurasian trade corridors and local currencies challenge the supremacy of the US dollar.But the US remains irreplaceableEconomically, the United States is by far India’s largest export market.According to the Bank of Baroda, US consumers purchased $77.5 billion worth of Indian goods in 2024.Data from the United States Trade Representative (USTR) shows that total US-India trade in goods and services reached an estimated $212.3 billion in 2024, up 8.3 per cent ($16.3 billion) from 2023.Breaking it down, total goods trade, exports plus imports, was $128.9 billion.US exports to India rose 3 per cent to $41.5 billion, while imports from India grew 4.5 per cent to $87.3 billion, leaving the US with a goods trade deficit of $45.8 billion, a 5.9 per cent increase from 2023.On the services side, total trade amounted to $83.4 billion. US service exports surged 15.9 per cent to $41.8 billion, and imports of services from India rose 15.4 per cent to $41.6 billion, leaving the US with a small services trade surplus of $102 million, reversing the $76 million deficit recorded in 2023.India’s access to US technology, capital and global supply chains is a strategic advantage that cannot be substituted by closer ties with Russia or China. By contrast, Moscow’s alignment with Beijing is far deeper.Since Western sanctions hit Russia after 2014, Russia-China trade has surpassed $200 billion, with Russian firms increasingly integrated into China’s financial system via the yuan and platforms such as UnionPay.In a revived RIC bloc, India would enter as a partner with limited economic leverage compared with its established role in the US-centered global economic network.The SCO summitThe upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Tianjin is set to be the largest in its history, with 20 world leaders, including Modi, Xi and Putin. China, as this year’s chair, is highlighting the forum as a platform for security, trade and economic cooperation. SCO members include Russia, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Belarus and China.Trade issues are expected to feature prominently. India is engaging China on fertilisers, rare earth magnets, and tunnel-boring machines. In April, China mandated special export licences for seven rare earth elements and related magnets. On August 14, PTI reported India was actively engaging China on this. A government official said:"Efforts are on. In fact, when we last approached the Embassy of China, they had also issued visas to our companies… They are finding means and ways by which the supply chain does not get impacted."The resumption of commerce through the Shipki-La pass in Himachal Pradesh, facilitated by talks between Wang Yi and Jaishankar, signals a cautious reopening of cross-border trade, alongside the restart of the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra. These moves show India’s approach of balancing practical cooperation with strategic caution.India’s calculusFor India, RIC is a double-edged sword. The troika offers potential leverage and symbolic alignment against US pressures, but full-scale engagement carries geopolitical and economic risks.Trust deficits with China, security concerns involving Pakistan, and deep dependence on the US make the alliance uncertain. Trump-era policies have spurred a deeper push for energy sovereignty and strategic autonomy in New Delhi, reinforcing caution.RIC may provide optics, signaling alignment against external pressures, but the partnership’s substance is likely to remain limited.Symbolism and pragmatism may converge in Tianjin, but history and geography ensure India’s strategic autonomy will continue to guide its choices.