Provident Bank Survey: Business Owners Expect Growth but Brace for Tariff Impact

Despite rising concerns over tariffs, a majority of business owners expect the U.S. economy to grow in the second half of 2025, according to the latest Mid-Year Business Outlook Survey released Tuesday by Provident Bank.

The survey, conducted by Pollfish for the New Jersey-based financial institution, polled 1,000 business owners and senior executives at U.S. companies generating over $1 million in annual revenue.

More than 60% of respondents said they anticipate economic growth over the next six months. However, over 70% expressed at least moderate concern about the potential impact of tariffs on their operations.

“Despite business owners voicing concerns about tariffs, our survey demonstrates a positive growth outlook in the near future,” said Bill Fink, Executive Vice President and Chief Lending Officer at Provident Bank. “We’re observing businesses strategically adapting to this environment by proactively managing inventory and planning capital expenditures.”

While over 55% of businesses surveyed said tariffs are negatively affecting the broader U.S. economy, the majority reported only minimal direct impact so far. Over 80% indicated that the effect of tariffs on their business has been either “somewhat” or “none.”

Businesses appear divided on policy preferences. Just under half (45%) said tariffs should be eliminated entirely, while 35% supported retaining them in some capacity, and about 20% said they should remain as currently proposed. More than 50% said they believe tariffs are weakening the country economically.

When asked about specific operational changes in response to tariff pressure, 41.7% of business leaders reported plans to delay major capital expenditures. About 33% have adjusted their inventory levels, while 31.7% are still assessing possible changes. Hiring plans remain largely unaffected, with nearly half of respondents reporting no change and just under 30% indicating plans to freeze hiring.

Fewer business owners are turning to sales promotions to boost demand. About one-third said they are taking no action, and another third are still evaluating their options.

More than one-third of companies surveyed plan to pass increased tariff costs on to customers, while nearly 30% say they expect to absorb those costs internally.

“Through close partnerships with our clients, we’re able to understand their unique challenges and help them navigate today’s dynamic lending landscape,” Fink added. “Provident remains committed to providing the financial resources businesses need to succeed.”