I'm a polling expert for Ipsos – this is what UK really thinks of Nigel Farage

OPINION

Parliament is now firmly in recess and politicians of all stripes will begin zig-zagging across the country, ahead of May’s local elections. One person with a spring in his step is Nigel Farage. Reform UK’s leader can only be pleased with how the last year has gone. His grand reentrance into British politics had a profound impact on the 2024 general election and was a major factor in the scale of the Conservative defeat. He led Reform to more than four million votes and opinion polls suggest it would win many more if there was another election tomorrow.

It’s possible that both the Runcorn by-election and hundreds of council seats will turn Reform on May 1. That would have felt very unlikely a year ago. And yet the man himself continues to divide opinion. To some, he’s a patriotic hero, a Brexit champion who speaks truth to power, especially on immigration. To others, his focus on migration is a turn-off, he is too divisive and too close to populists like Donald Trump. Whatever your opinion, Farage and Reform are clearly a growing force in British politics.

Their brand is particularly compelling at a time of intense, long-standing public dissatisfaction with how the country has been run. But can Farage really win power? Ipsos polling paints a mixed picture. It is true that he is one of the more popular politicians in the country.

But that isn’t saying much. We found 29% of the public hold a favourable opinion of him, while 49% of views are unfavourable. The “favourable” share is similar to Sir Keir Starmer’s (29%) and above Sir Ed Davey’s (24%) and, crucially, Kemi Badenoch’s (18%). But they all have low numbers. He is also on the “right side” of British public opinion on some key issues – especially immigration.

This is consistently a top-three issue for the public. Some 55% think the current Labour Government is doing a bad job managing it and our data also shows Reform is the most trusted party on the subject, with a seven-point margin over Labour. More generally, the current “anti-politics” mood boosts Farage’s chances. Britons often say they think the country is heading in the wrong direction and having voted for Labour’s “change” last year, they are impatient for them to deliver. Being an upstart protest party with 15% of the vote is one thing.

Winning a general election is another. And the more realistic the prospect of a Farage-led government looks, the more scrutiny will come his way. Therein lies several challenges that could yet derail his rise. When we ask the public for the main negatives of Farage becoming prime minister, three key issues are highlighted. The first is that he would make the country more divided (37%), second is the perception he is too close to Trump (35%) and, finally, that there is not enough talent in Reform to form a competent government (32%).

Trump could be gone by the next general election – perceptions about Reform’s relative weakness will be harder to shift. Therefore, polling suggests Reform UK cannot remain a one-man show if Farage wants to become PM. To be seen as a credible political party, he needs to surround himself with competent and trustworthy people, who can lead government departments – a team of experienced individuals capable of tackling complex challenges.

To gain ultimate power, Farage may have to give some away to colleagues. The concern – highlighted by the bruising break with former Reform UK MP Rupert Lowe – is that he is unable or unwilling to do so. Public nervousness about a Brexit schism cannot be ignored, either. Both remainers and leavers hoped these divisions were a thing of the past. Moving past them will not be easy for Brexit’s key champion.

One way to try is by moving beyond a focus on immigration to present credible policies on a range of other issues, from the economy to public services. This does not mean ignoring immigration completely – it is a key part of his appeal – but it does mean showing Reform has credible and popular solutions to our problems. His recent focus on nationalising British Steel is a good example of what this could look like in practice – but he needs to offer much more.

The challenge for Farage is clear. Playing on public dissatisfaction with the status quo will only get you so far. To go all the way, he will need to show he can be a leader of a credible team that has answers to the full range of issues facing Britain. Time will tell if he can.