Democrats probably can’t win the redistricting wars

Republicans are kicking off a gerrymandering arms race that Democrats can’t win, according to the analysis of most election watchers. The question now is whether Democrats can generate enough seats to give them a chance to retake the House in the future.

With the return of most Texas Democrats, Republicans in the state are on the verge of delivering a new House map that would give their party another five seats that President Donald Trump would have comfortably carried in the 2024 election, and which Republicans are likely to win in the 2026 midterm elections.

The move is part of a larger Republican plot to rewrite the rules concerning House apportionment and district drawing that’s aimed at isolating the GOP’s governing majority from the will of the voters.

In the realm of redistricting, however, Democrats can potentially use the power they wield in states that they govern to give themselves more seats that they’re likely to win in the 2026 midterm elections. These could serve to offset some of the gains Republicans are set to make through redistricting. The problem for Democrats is that, compared to the GOP, there are fewer opportunities to game the system.

Miles Coleman, associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, told Salon, “Republicans are likely going to come out ahead if the re-redistricting wars escalate, but the question is how much.”

Coleman said that, for simplicity’s sake, he’s assuming that California will be able to redistrict five Republicans out of office in the midterms, effectively canceling out the gain Republicans are set to make in Texas.

However, he explained, Republicans are also looking to redraw their maps in Ohio, Florida, Indiana and Missouri, which could collectively give Republicans six or seven more seats in Congress.

Republicans in Nebraska have also considered redistricting, potentially preventing Democrats from flipping an Omaha-area seat held by Rep. Don Bacon, R-Neb.. Republicans could also potentially pick up a seat in New Hampshire, though they would have to overcome the opposition of Gov. Kelly Ayotte, a Republican who has voiced opposition.

“The Democrats’ path to making up that possible six-to-seven-seat gap isn’t very straightforward. Maryland Democrats could draw out Rep. Andy Harris (R), although they would probably need to clear their map with the state’s highest court, which is full of Hogan appointees. Democrats could also try to squeeze another seat out of [Illinois], although that would take some creative line-drawing,” Coleman said in an email. Larry Hogan was the state’s relatively moderate Republican governor from 2015 to 2023.

The main problem for Democrats is that, in the states that provide them the best opportunity to gain seats through redistricting, they are constrained by state law. In New York, redistricting rules are set by a constitutional amendment that disallows mid-decade redistricting and partisan gerrymandering. While Democrats could re-amend the state constitution, they don’t have time to do this before the midterms.

In Colorado and Virginia, two states where Democrats could potentially gain seats through redistricting before the midterms, the process is also controlled by an independent commission. The same is true of New Jersey, Michigan and Washington.

In Minnesota, a state with a Democratic majority in terms of popular vote, with an evenly divided House delegation, the political assassination of state Rep. Melissa Hortman earlier this year gave Republicans control of the state House.

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In short, Republicans have a clear path to pick up between 11 or 12 seats, while Democrats don’t have an obvious way to make up for those losses in states that they govern.

In the context of the 2026 midterms, a dozen or so new Republican seats could be enough to insulate them from backlash to Trump and the Republican agenda. In some recent elections, swings in the House have been relatively small. In 2022, Republicans only netted nine seats in the midterms and in 2024, Democrats netted two seats.

The gerrymandering likely wouldn’t be able to save Republicans from a midterm election more akin to 2018, however, when Democrats stormed back into the House majority, netting 41 seats. Whether the 2026 midterms look more like 2022 or 2018, however, depends on how sentiments, redistricting and the rules around voting shift between now and November of next year.