Trump's message regarding the US-China meeting created anxiety in global markets

Trade tensions between the US and China are being closely watched worldwide. US President Trump announced that he would meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea within two weeks, but later stated that the meeting "may not happen."

Stating that they will make a fair deal with China, Trump said, "I think it will be a very successful meeting (with Xi). There are a lot of people waiting for this, but maybe it won't happen. Maybe it won't happen."

This development has dampened the risk appetite, which has been rising for some time due to expectations that US-China tensions will ease, and has led investors to take cautious positions against the possibility of a possible dispute.

Meanwhile, developments regarding the reopening process of the US federal government, which has been closed due to budgetary inadequacy, continued to remain a focus for investors. The federal government, which has remained closed since October 1st, was unable to reopen yesterday due to the Senate's 11th vote to reject the interim budget bill. The Senate is expected to hold its next vote today.

In parallel with these developments, the delay in critical data due to the government shutdown in the US reduces predictability regarding the US Federal Reserve's policies, while the inflation data to be released in the country on Friday will provide clues about the steps the Fed will take in the coming period.

Analysts stated that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to increase by 0.4 percent on a monthly basis and 3.1 percent on an annual basis in September.

While expectations in money market prices that the Fed will make two interest rate cuts by the end of the year remain, the bank is expected to make three interest rate cuts next year.

There was selling pressure yesterday in gold and silver, which are in the precious metal group.

Expectations for a possible easing of tensions between the US and China, a recovery in the dollar index, and investors' focus on profit-taking triggered a correction in gold prices, which have been breaking consecutive records. Yesterday, the price of gold fell 5.3% to $4,125 per ounce, marking its steepest decline since August 11, 2020.

An ounce of gold is currently selling for $4,132, up 0.1 percent.

Following gold's strong performance, silver, a prominent alternative store of value, has followed a similar trend. After losing 7.2% to $48.70 yesterday, the price of an ounce of silver is trading at $48.94, up 0.5% on the new trading day.

Analysts stated that the decline in precious metal prices could be a technical relaxation stemming from the overbought region in the short term, but noted that persistent inflation concerns and expectations regarding the Fed's interest rate cut cycle could continue to be supportive for gold and silver in the medium term.

Bond markets were dominated by buying, with the 10-year US Treasury yield falling to 3.96%. The dollar index, which closed at 98.96 yesterday, up 0.4%, is currently down 0.1% at 98.9.

A barrel of Brent crude oil is trading at $62, up 1.1 percent on the new trading day.

In addition, the accelerating earnings season around the world is another topic in the focus of investors, while the financial results to be announced today by Tesla, which is in the "Magnificent Seven" group in the USA, are important for the direction of the markets.

On the corporate side, General Motors' financial results, announced yesterday, exceeded market expectations. Shares gained 14.9% after the company also raised its profit forecast for this year.

Global internet television network Netflix, which announced its results after the market closed, reported revenue of $11.5 billion, a 17.2 percent increase in the third quarter of this year. The company had previously forecast revenue of $9.8 billion in the third quarter of 2024.

Netflix's net profit rose by approximately 7.7 percent to $2.5 billion in the third quarter compared to the same period last year. The company's net profit was projected to be $2.4 billion in the same period in 2024.

In the defense sector, Lockheed Martin, RTX, and GE Aerospace raised their year-end profit forecasts. Lockheed Martin's shares fell 3.2 percent, while RTX and GE Aerospace gained 7.7 percent and 1.3 percent, respectively.

With these developments, the S&P 500 index was flat on the New York Stock Exchange yesterday, while the Nasdaq index fell 0.16 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.47 percent. Index futures contracts in the US opened the day negative.

While European stock markets were trading mostly yesterday, the speech of European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde will be followed today.

Geopolitical developments in the Middle East continue to dominate the regional agenda. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen spoke at the European Parliament's (EP) session on the "EU Commission 2026 Work Programme."

Von der Leyen stated that Europe would gain the ability to shape the new order by gaining independence, saying, "Europe must play a role in the reconstruction of Gaza." Von der Leyen also noted that Europe should be involved in reviving the two-state solution in Palestine and encouraging the emergence of a new Syria, and she emphasized the importance of a lasting and just peace in Ukraine for the European continent.

Von der Leyen underlined that they will therefore continue to increase pressure on Russia and support Ukraine's resistance in every way.

Meanwhile, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane warned yesterday that banks in the Eurozone could come under pressure if dollar financing is cut off.

In addition to these developments, the ratio of public debt to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the Eurozone rose to 88.2 percent in the second quarter of this year.

Yesterday, the FTSE 100 index in the UK rose 0.25 percent, the FTSE MIB 30 index in Italy rose 0.6 percent, the CAC 40 index in France rose 0.64 percent, and the DAX 40 in Germany rose 0.29 percent. Index futures contracts in Europe started the day mixed.

While a mixed trend prevails in Asia, the focus is on news flow regarding the expected talks between the US and China and South Korea.

Meanwhile, according to regional data released today, Japan's September export growth fell short of expectations at 4.2 percent year-over-year, while imports rose 3.3 percent, significantly exceeding projections. Market expectations had been for a 0.6 percent increase in imports.

The country's foreign trade deficit in September was 234.6 billion yen (about $1.55 billion).

With these developments, Japan's Nikkei 225 index rose 0.1 percent and South Korea's Kospi index rose 0.6 percent as trading neared the close. China's Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.4 percent and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 1.3 percent.

Following a sell-heavy trend yesterday, the BIST 100 index on the Borsa Istanbul closed the day at 10,467.20 points, losing 0.16 percent. The October futures contract based on the BIST 30 index on the Borsa Istanbul Futures and Options Market (VIOP) remained flat in yesterday evening's session compared to the regular session close.

USD/TRY, which closed at 41.9710 yesterday, is trading at 41.9690 today, just below its previous close at the opening of the interbank market.

Analysts noted that the foreign exchange assets and liabilities of non-financial companies will be monitored domestically today, while ECB President Lagarde's speech, inflation in the UK, and weekly mortgage applications in the US will be monitored internationally.

Analysts stated that the data to be released today from public institutions in the US will be postponed due to the federal government being closed, and that from a technical perspective, the 10,300 and 10,250 levels in the BIST 100 index are support levels, while the 10,600 and 10,700 levels are resistance levels.

Here are the data to follow in the markets today:

09.00 UK, September Consumer Price Index (CPI)

11.30 UK, August annual house price index

14.00 US, weekly mortgage applications

14.30 Türkiye, August foreign exchange assets and liabilities of non-financial companies

15.25 Eurozone, ECB President Lagarde's speech