They want to raise the minimum wage to 35 thousand rubles: how this will change the lives of workers

In early July, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin held a strategic session on reducing poverty, reducing inequality and increasing real incomes of citizens, at which he announced the goal of increasing the minimum wage to 35 thousand rubles by 2030. This is not the first time the government has spoken about the desire to reach the 35 thousand minimum wage level, but how far has it actually advanced towards this goal?

The minimum wage in Russia for 2025 is set at 22,440 rubles per month before deducting personal income tax (PIT). This is the minimum amount that an employer is required to pay an employee for a full working month, provided that the employee meets working hours and job responsibilities.

According to various sources, 3 to 4 million workers in Russia receive a salary equal to the minimum wage, but the size of the "minimum" is important not only for these citizens. The fact is that the minimum wage serves as the basis not only for regulating wages, but also for determining benefits for temporary disability, pregnancy and childbirth, as well as other types of mandatory social insurance. The law establishes that an employee's salary must not fall below the minimum wage, and in the event of a violation of this requirement, employers may face fines.

Increasing the minimum wage to 35 thousand rubles by 2030 is a strategic goal of the Russian government aimed at reducing social inequality and improving the quality of life of the population. But is it so easy to achieve this indicator and what changes await society on the way to this goal?

"To achieve this goal of 35 thousand rubles, an average annual growth rate of the minimum wage of 9.4% is required (in the period from 2026 to 2030 inclusive). For comparison, over the previous five years, from 2020 to 2025, the minimum wage increased from 12,130 to 22,440 rubles, which corresponds to an average annual growth of 13.2%," calculated Vladimir Chernov, an analyst at Freedom Finance Global. Thus, in absolute values, the government continues to strive to actively support citizens' incomes, but their growth rates will be moderately reduced compared to the previous five years. From this, the analyst concludes that achieving the set goal is quite realistic, but it is necessary to control inflation risks, since this indicator affects the formation of the economic growth model and social sustainability.

"Raising the minimum wage is a standard step against the backdrop of long-term high inflation and rising prices for basic goods and services," says economist Andrey Loboda, a top manager in the field of financial communications. He recalls that in recent months, the annual inflation rate has fluctuated in the range of 9-10%. "It is important to consider that in the current economic situation, the increase in the minimum wage can only partially compensate for the decrease in purchasing power. It does not outpace inflation, but rather catches up with it," the expert believes. This means that even after raising the minimum wage, real wages (taking into account inflation) may decrease.

From the point of view of social stability, raising the minimum wage will naturally have a positive effect on society, because the minimum wage is the base value for calculating a wide range of payments: sick leave, benefits, maternity benefits. Andrey Loboda reminds that "raising the minimum wage will automatically pull up these payments." Moreover, the main economic result will be a decrease in the number of workers receiving wages below the subsistence minimum, which, in turn, will help reduce the scale of poverty. But, as always, even in this case there may be risks.

In particular, this concerns the small and medium business sectors. The wage fund is increasing, which means higher wage costs. For companies with low margins (an indicator that reflects the percentage of profit from sales to revenue), this is especially difficult, since they are forced to either reduce staff in order to optimize costs, or raise prices for their goods and services, which reduces their competitiveness in the market. "Without tax or credit concessions, some entrepreneurs who are faced with the need to increase the minimum wage may go into the shadows or reduce staff," warns Andrey Loboda.

If we look at the situation as a whole, then the forecast for the growth of the minimum wage can be called quite positive, experts interviewed by MK believe. "From the point of view of macroeconomics, such growth rates of the minimum wage can be considered realistic. If inflation in Russia in the coming years is maintained in the range of 4-5% per annum, as the Bank of Russia is trying to achieve, then the planned increase in the minimum income by 9-10% per annum will ensure a stable real growth of the minimum wage," says Chernov. This means that by 2030 the fight against poverty and social payments will reach a new level, capable of improving the lives of workers in Russia.