Russian stock market rose on Friday

— How can you characterize what is happening on the markets now? Is it all a freeze in anticipation of some new statements, geopolitics again?

— Yes, if we are talking about the stock market, it is certainly geopolitics. Now the market, roughly speaking, is using reasons for correction. We have made a good way up on the last round of geopolitical hopes, but since hopes are again in no hurry to become reality, we will probably continue the same up-and-down journey, swinging like a pendulum. But we can only say that perhaps now we will break out of the horizontal corridor where we have been since spring, and these waves of ours, our swings will move a little higher, perhaps we will now be doing around 3000. In order for us to enter an upward trend, we need some kind of visible track on geopolitics to appear, we need agreements, we need a dialogue not only with everyone in the world, but also directly with Russia and Ukraine, and it needs to somehow continue constructively. Well, and to this is added, of course, the internal agenda: a lower interest rate, a continued downward movement - this is what helps the index to gradually climb upward.

— And what will happen to the ruble in the near future? Now we see a slight weakening against the yuan, the Turkish lira. Will the Russian currency generally decline?

— Yes, we are currently experiencing a slight weakening, this is not yet a reversal, but it should still be noted that for the first time in six months we have gone through August with a trend towards a slight, but still weakening, the narrowing of the trade balance is having an effect here. And probably, we can still assume that this trend will continue to develop throughout the fall, and we still expect the ruble to be weaker in the fall than in the summer months.

— What will happen to oil in the near future? It is currently trading at 67.84 for Brent. What can we expect from it next?

— Well, so far there are no radical changes for oil. After all, we see some slowdown in global economic activity here. There are such big forecasts now, everything is being revised a little, but down in demand, which means there will be no bright growth. If some factors do not come up that can sharply limit supply, including, for example, major sanctions on Russia from the US, then here, most likely, we will remain at the same levels for now, nothing will change.