EU persistently tries to reduce the price ceiling for Russian oil to $45 per barrel: consequences named

Estonia, as one of the EU countries, will block the 18th package of sanctions against Russia if it does not include a clause that provides for lowering the ceiling on Russian oil prices from $60 to $45 per barrel. This statement was made by the head of the Estonian Foreign Ministry Margus Tsahna, adding that his country has a “very firm position” on this matter. Meanwhile, the likelihood of this measure being included in the new package of anti-Russian restrictions by Brussels, according to domestic experts, is low.
As Politico recalls, in June, the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, proposed lowering the price ceiling to $45 per barrel, but later the idea was abandoned due to uncertainty in the Middle East. However, the Estonian authorities are standing their ground, considering this restriction "the strongest part of the sanctions package."
The day before, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico said that Bratislava would not support the 18th package unless the European Commission offers a real solution to the energy situation. He also noted that he remains a supporter of continuing energy supplies from Russia to EU countries, since their cessation would negatively affect the cost of energy raw materials and European competitiveness. In turn, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz recently called on the Slovak leadership to stop resisting and "open the way to the 18th package."
- It is possible that the clause on lowering the price ceiling will be included in the new sanctions package, but the probability is extremely low, - Igor Yushkov, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, said in an interview with MK. - The fundamental reason is that this rule itself was initially initiated and adopted by the EU countries by a joint decision. Later, the G7 countries - the USA, Canada, Australia - joined it. Therefore, the question arises: if something is changed, is it possible this time to do without the approval of individual EU members and the United States? I think not. In Washington, the issue of the price ceiling is not discussed at all; the issue of adopting the bill of Lindsay Graham, a senator recognized in the Russian Federation as an extremist and terrorist, is on the agenda there.
According to it, the president is given the right to impose import duties of 500% on goods from countries that buy Russian oil. But Trump is unlikely to take advantage of this opportunity, even if Congress approves the document. In general, the positions of the EU leadership and the US administration differ greatly in terms of sanctions against the Russian energy sector.
- What is Estonia trying to achieve then?
- Neither it nor the other Baltic states have a significant voice in the EU political structures. They make their statements, rather, for image purposes: they say, we are the most zealous fighters against Moscow, and we call for increased pressure on it. The problem with lowering the price ceiling is the following: everyone understands that the measure in its current form, with the level of restrictions at $60 per barrel, does not work as intended by the initiators, and therefore will not work properly at $45 per barrel. However, the ceiling still does not allow the Russian Federation to export raw materials more effectively. If it did not exist, the number of tankers available for transporting Russian oil would increase, competition among them would be higher, and the cost of delivery would be lower. But now we have to use a shadow fleet.
I would also like to point out that the existence of a price ceiling (especially at $45 per barrel) may acquire real significance if the EU decides to close the Danish straits to tankers that are on the sanctions lists. Then it will no longer be possible to import oil through the Baltic Sea using a shadow fleet, and we will have to resort to the services of shipowners who comply with the price ceiling rule. The Europeans may say: "Please use the regular fleet, not the shadow fleet, and we will let you through." Then yes, lowering the bar to $45 per barrel will be a completely justified, logical step. Today, we mainly fit into the current parameters for purely market reasons, since world oil prices have fallen to about $70 per barrel, and the Russian Urals grade is traded at a discount (about $10) at around $60 or lower.
- According to the Ministry of Finance, Russia's oil and gas revenues fell by 16.9% in the first half of the year. What will happen to them next?
- The price ceiling has nothing to do with it. Let me remind you that the situation is related to the fact that global oil prices dropped significantly in early April, when Trump announced his duties, and the OPEC+ alliance members announced an increase in production quotas. However, if we take not this rather short period of time, but look at the dynamics within the first half of the year, we will see that the situation is improving. Let's hope that prices will return to the corridor of at least $70-80 per barrel and consolidate there.
mk.ru