Analysts warn of possible fall of ruble

After the dollar exchange rate rose to 83.1 rubles on the international Forex market on July 28, the American currency retreated and fell to 80.3 rubles by August 1. Analysts linked such somersaults of the ruble over the week to geopolitics. The weakening of the ruble was caused by the reduction of the ultimatum that US President Donald Trump issued to Russia, demanding a settlement of the conflict in Ukraine in 10 days instead of the previously announced 50. The ruble regained its positions because the markets did not believe in the reality of this threat. Nevertheless, in July, the ruble lost 2% of its value against the dollar. What will happen to the ruble next - in August, which is traditionally unfavorable for it, MK found out from experts.

Natalia Milchakova, leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global:

"August is traditionally a "fatal month" for the ruble, when it weakens quite often. Most likely, in 2025 this month will confirm its ambiguous reputation with financial markets. In the first ten days of August, a new round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul could, in principle, take place. The ruble could, in theory, respond to this fact by strengthening, but it is unlikely that such a meeting will actually take place, and even if it does, it is unlikely to lead to a significant breakthrough on the track of settling the Ukrainian conflict.

In the first ten days of August, the Ministry of Finance will announce operations on the foreign exchange market under the budget rule, and will most likely resume currency purchases, which will additionally put negative pressure on the ruble exchange rate.

Trump is threatening to impose secondary sanctions or tariffs on importers of Russian energy resources, but in reality, he is unlikely to succeed without seriously worsening relations with China or India, and it is completely disadvantageous for the United States to quarrel with these great powers.

There will be no central bank meetings on interest rates in August. On the one hand, this could be a plus for the ruble, since a reduction in the key rate, if it happened, could further affect the weakening of the Russian currency, on the other hand, it is possible that the weakening of the dollar, if, for example, the Fed began to reduce interest rates, could affect the ruble in the short term. But in any case, geopolitical uncertainty and risks will put pressure on the Russian currency throughout the month. But the fall of the ruble in the second half of August could be curbed by possible fruit and vegetable deflation and the tax period. We expect the dollar exchange rate to be within 80-86 rubles by the end of summer, the euro - within 92-98 rubles, the yuan - in the corridor of 11-11.7 rubles."

Yuriy Kravchenko, Head of Bank and Money Market Analysis Department, VELES Capital Investment Company:

"The dollar grew almost the entire second half of July, which forced market participants to talk about the formation of a trend towards a weakening ruble. After the American currency consolidated above 80 rubles by July 28 (which happened for the first time since May), the dollar slowed down and took a break for now. We believe that the sharp increase in the exchange rate in the last days of July could be the result of increased geopolitical risks, as well as a local surge in demand for currency from certain large market participants. In the coming days, the situation may stabilize, but based on the results of the last month of summer, we do not rule out the continuation of the trend towards a weakening ruble at a moderate pace.

August is traditionally the worst month for the ruble. This is confirmed by historical data. Thus, for the period from 2000 to 2024, the official dollar exchange rate demonstrated, on average, the greatest strengthening (1.98%) in August. By the end of summer, we expect the ruble to weaken further due to the seasonal deterioration of the current account and the restoration of cheaper imports. We believe that by the beginning of autumn, the dollar may strengthen to the range of 82.6-83.1 rubles.

Market participants expect the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to continue easing its policy. However, the real level of interest rates remains close to historical maximums, so even if the regulator continues to ease the policy, real rates will be attractive to investors for a long period of time. We expect that if the ruble loses support in this vein, it will be gradually and closer to the end of this year.

The Central Bank remains a net seller of currency on the foreign exchange market. This situation will probably remain until the end of the year. An additional supply of currency from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is unlikely to help the ruble strengthen, but will limit the pressure on it if the situation worsens.

Taking into account the effect of the budget rule, the Finance Ministry's sales of currency when the oil price falls will offset potential pressure on the ruble exchange rate. With sharp fluctuations in oil prices, one can expect only a short-term increase in volatility on the domestic currency market, but overall the impact on the ruble will be neutral due to the budget rule."

Ivan Efanov, analyst at Tsifra Broker:

"At the end of July, we observed a precipitous weakening of the ruble against the dollar, which began after the news that Donald Trump was reducing the deadline for resolving the conflict to 50 days and appointing a new one. The stock market responded to this with an immediate fall, and almost immediately the growth in the yuan and dollar to ruble pairs began. Looking ahead to August, we expect the ruble to continue consolidating in the range of 80-85.3 rubles per dollar with a gradual movement towards the upper limit of the designated range. We expect the yuan exchange rate to be at 11.3-11.7 rubles, the euro - 92.8-97 rubles.

If we talk about what could lead to sharp movements in the exchange rate in August, then this is, for example, a sharp drop in energy prices. The onset of a global recession due to the introduction of tariffs and trade wars could provoke a collapse in demand for oil and gas below levels critical for the Russian budget: for example, lead to Urals oil prices below $40 per barrel for a long period. Growing disagreements in OPEC+ and the exit of key participants (especially Saudi Arabia) could lead to a collapse in prices due to the resumption of the price war, which would also be a devaluation factor for the ruble. Probably, of all the scenarios that seem unlikely, I would highlight these ones."

Dmitry Babin, stock market expert at BCS World of Investments:

"If the geopolitical situation for Russia does not change significantly in August, the ruble will most likely depreciate moderately. This is due to a reduction in the supply of foreign currency from exports due to its decrease in quantitative terms, caused by sanctions and geopolitics, as well as due to the predominantly low oil prices in previous months. In addition, demand for foreign currency from importers may recover as consumer activity increases, both due to a decrease in interest rates and due to deferred demand for goods and services due to a long period of tight monetary conditions. The official dollar exchange rate may return to around 83 rubles in the coming month, the euro - to 95 rubles, and the exchange yuan - to 11.5 rubles."