How Trump's tariff hike affects US tourism? Experts explain

The tourism market is one of the most important in the United States , being the largest exporter of services in the country. In 2023, the sector contributed US$ 2.36 trillion to the American Gross Domestic Product (GDP), surpassing the pre-pandemic values of US$ 2.27 trillion (2019), according to the online platform Statista.

To give you an idea, one job is created in the country for every 40 international visits, according to data from ITA (International Trade Administration).

However, this scenario could change due to the import tariffs that President Donald Trump announced, with China, Mexico and Canada, the largest buyers of North American products, as the main targets.

Financial services firm JP Morgan and global lender Goldman Sachs have both forecast a weakening travel outlook and weak earnings forecasts for companies in the sector . The decline in spending on overseas travel is expected to shave 0.1% off U.S. GDP in 2025, with the impact potentially reaching 0.2% to 0.3%.

However, the US National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO)'s "International Visitor Forecast" study went the opposite way and predicted an increase in international visitors to the country in 2025. In the survey, they estimated receiving 77.1 million foreigners, representing a growth of 6.5% compared to 2024.

However, in March, the number of international visitors to the US fell 11.6% compared to the previous year, according to the ITA (International Trade Administration), according to The Guardian.

Glauber Santos , an economist and coordinator of the postgraduate program in tourism at the University of São Paulo (USP), says it is not possible to analyze Trump's tariffs without considering the immigration control policy in the US . The president's second term began marked by the deportation of immigrants from the country — the first flight of Brazilians arrived on January 24 .

“Both measures have negative consequences for American inbound tourism,” says Glauber, stating that American tourism is already in decline.

“People are less interested in going to the United States at the moment and this is happening both because of the tariffs and because of the reinforced immigration controls,” he adds.

Lucas Leite , professor of International Relations at the Armando Alvares Penteado Foundation (FAAP), says that countries like China, Canada and Mexico, which have a lot of trade and tourism exchange with the US, should suffer more “due to the perception of hostility and the idea that they are not welcome”.

“This perception could lead to a repositioning of the US , from an open and globalized country, to an unpredictable, very closed country that changes its policy all the time,” he explains.

Already under negotiation, the tariffs are also expected to increase American inflation and the prices of products in the US — especially those that depend on imports of inputs and manufactured goods, which are usually purchased from Asia.

This will affect shopping tourism , which is popular among Brazilians and travelers from less developed countries. “These products are now more expensive, and as a result, shopping tourism is expected to fall significantly — in fact, it is already falling,” says the professor.

How should travelers from Brazil behave?

Shopping trips are not the only form of tourism affected: business travel , which is very important in the US, is also likely to be affected. Guilherme Dietze , economist and president of the FecomercioSP Tourism Board, points out that this type of travel sustains global air transport with a high average ticket price — an indicator of sales performance.

“There is an opportunity for Brazil to increase its correlation not only with the US, but with Europe and other places, increasing business tourism with the world”, highlights the agency’s economist.

Leisure tourism is also expected to decline compared to previous years. According to Glauber, European countries and Canada will be favored for Brazilian travelers.

“It seems that Trump’s tariffs are not generating and have no prospect of generating reactions, for example, in tariffs between Europe and Brazil or other pairs of countries in the world. So this effect should be quite contained in the US, leaving the favoritism of competing destinations of the North American country more marked and evident”, he explains.

Dietze believes that Brazilians should not stop traveling to the United States for work or leisure . He says that the intense demand for visits to the North American country involves everything from leisure trips and participation in trade fairs to exchange students interested in studying in the country.

“I don’t see any impact from this reduction in Brazilian tourists in the US. What would have an impact would be a very unfavorable exchange rate, which is not the case: we are seeing a more stable exchange rate of R$5.60, below the R$6.30 we saw at the end of last year. This is encouraging Brazilian tourists to go to the US,” he says.

Given this scenario, experts highlight the uncertainty about the extent to which Donald Trump's import tariffs will materialize. Although they disagree about the behavior of Brazilians in the face of the possible increase in inflation and devaluation of the dollar, one fact is certain: with 10% tariffs on national products, Brazil is one of the countries least affected by the trade war .