US: Musk's party may surprise due to dissatisfaction

Political scientists say Elon Musk's multi-million dollar plan to form a third political force in the United States, the America Party , faces many obstacles but could be a surprise given the current mood of voter dissatisfaction.

"Establishing a third party is always a shot in the dark," Professor Thomas Holyoke of California State University in Fresno told Lusa.

"This country doesn't have a history of more than two political parties, and third parties are established as spoilers ," he characterized. There are a number of institutional obstacles that make party formation very difficult, as Professor Brian Adams of California State University, San Diego, also explained.

"This is a winner-takes-all electoral system, and it's difficult to achieve a balance; you have to win from the start," he told Lusa. "Many states make it difficult for third-party parties to appear on the ballot."

These disadvantages lead donors to focus on the two major parties, Republican and Democratic , and make fundraising difficult. "It's the reason we haven't had a truly successful third-party movement since the mid-19th century," Brian Adams noted.

However, the professor identified one way in which Elon Musk may be the exception: the extraordinary moment the electorate is experiencing . "People are very dissatisfied with the state of American politics. They want something different," the political scientist explained. "That was Trump's biggest draw: he was different."

This desire for change, which exists among voters on both the left and right, could benefit the America Party, especially if it secures significant financial support. The question lies in the ideological leanings that Elon Musk will give to the political project.

"Recent attempts to create third political forces have focused on moderate parties, trying to capture the center," Adams said. If Musk goes this route, he could gain more support among Democrats than Republicans because Democrats are more centrist at the moment, he considered.

However, Adams doubts this. "I suspect Musk will try to create another right-wing party, and that will hurt the Republicans, competing directly," he said.

Thomas Holyoke even doubts that Elon Musk will actually move forward with forming a party, given the obstacles, unless he does so out of "absolute stubbornness and spite." He also said he doesn't believe Republican strategists are "trembling with fear" about the plan, something that will only happen if Musk suddenly starts giving money to Democrats.

"I would be surprised if that happened, but I'm not sure how ideologically Musk aligns with either side," the political scientist said, noting that the tycoon was a Democrat supporter before aligning himself with Donald Trump.

For Holyoke, if Musk does form the party, it could siphon support from Republicans heading into the 2026 midterm elections, which are expected to be difficult for Trump's party.

This scenario depends on strategy, as there's just over a year left, and setting up a political campaign is time-consuming and complicated. According to Brian Adams, the way to have the greatest impact will be for Musk to focus on a handful of states and try to win a few House seats in Republican-leaning districts.

"Republicans and Democrats are so close in terms of popular support that the country could be split in half," the professor said. "If a third party gains a few seats in the House of Representatives, it could give them tremendous power and influence."

Even if Musk abandons the idea, he likely won't step away from politics, contrary to what he said in May when he ended his collaboration with the White House and vowed to dedicate himself to his companies. Even without a party affiliation, "it's most likely he'll try to influence some districts with politicians he doesn't like, or influence Republican candidates for various positions," said Brian Adams.

None of the political scientists really expect the America Party to advance, but the move is important given the deteriorating situation in the American political system.