What Israel has learned that Europeans have not yet learned

In Europe, the war between Israel and the Iranian theocracy has not only inspired regrettable comments, such as that of Marques Mendes. The German chancellor, for example, acknowledged that Israel, in trying to disarm the dictators of Iran, was doing “dirty work” necessary for the security of “liberal democracies”. Other European leaders were not so honest. Ursula von der Leyen lamented the lack of persistence in “diplomacy”. Emanuel Macron was distressed by the “void” that a possible collapse of the Iranian tyranny could leave in the Middle East.

Two years ago, Israeli leaders were not much wiser than their European counterparts. They thought, in Gaza, that they could coexist with Hamas. Hamas explained every day that its goal was to destroy Israel. But the Israeli government insisted on seeing Hamas as a mere gang of mafiosos. The anti-Israeli rhetoric was just that: rhetoric. Deep down, they wanted to enrich themselves. Stories about the personal fortunes of some Hamas leaders seemed to prove this. So they could be negotiated with, bought off, kept quiet and satisfied. On October 7, 2023, Israel discovered that Hamas really believed what it said.

It was then that the Israeli government realised that it could not wait to find out whether the Iranian clerics were also serious when, as Ayatollah Khamenei did in September 2015, they promised that Israel would cease to exist by 2040. This is not an impossible project. More than half of Israel’s population – 5.4 million – lives in an area equivalent to our district of Faro. A few missiles with nuclear warheads would perhaps be enough to start a new Holocaust. Iran already has the missiles and could soon have the material for the warheads. Should Israel trust that, despite what they proclaim and swear, the mullahs really only want to sell oil and receive commissions?

In the US, the discussion is different from that in Europe. But it is not better. Israel’s right to defend itself is generally accepted. But some Trump fans, such as Steve Bannon and Tucker Carlson, reject US cooperation, if necessary, in disarming Iran. That would only be in Israel’s interest, and Israel should therefore do it alone. By intervening, the US would be starting another Iraq war. Bannon and Carlson, aligned here with the radical left, are no less short-sighted than Van der Leyen and Macron. This is not 2003. No one is talking about invasions, but rather, if necessary, a localized air strike. And it is not true that disarming Iran is only of interest to Israel.

The Middle East is not far away and it is not just a question of oil. Mass migrations have filled the West with people who can be mobilized by the apocalyptic powers of the Islamic world. Ten years ago, the peak of jihadist terrorism in Europe and the United States coincided with the triumphs of the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq. This terrorism declined when the Islamic State was defeated. The defeat of the Iranian theocracy and its militias in Gaza and Lebanon will serve to dissuade local powers hostile to liberal democracies, but it is also a means of degrading their influence over those in the West who might be sensitive to their example when associated with force and crowned with victory.

It is not about exporting democracy to the region, as George Bush had to imagine in 2003, under pressure from Tony Blair. It is about eliminating threats, such as the Iranian nuclear program, without any other expectations. In Syria, the pro-Iranian despotism of the Assads did not give rise to a democracy like that of Switzerland. But the new Islamist dictator does not say that he wants to destroy Israel, and puts on a suit and tie to greet Trump. That should be enough for the West. Hopefully one day the Syrians and Iranians will start to live differently. But that is up to them.