Brazilian coffee sales to the US plummet, and Americans pay more

With the 50% tariff hike imposed by President Donald Trump coming into effect on August 6, Brazilian coffee prices became unviable for sale to the United States, causing exports to plummet. Meanwhile, American consumers are paying increasingly higher prices for the beverage.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), coffee prices rose 3.6% in August, nine times the official inflation rate for the period (0.4%). This brings the price of coffee to a 20.9% increase in the past twelve months, the highest rate in 28 years.

Since the tariff hike began, US importers have sought alternative suppliers, such as Colombia for Arabica coffee and Vietnam for Robusta. Exports from neighboring Brazil to the US are subject to a 10% tariff, while the Asian country is subject to a 20% tariff.

The product's inclusion on the list of exemptions from the tariff on Brazilian products was practically taken for granted due to the United States' dependence on Brazilian production. Brazil is the world's largest coffee supplier, while the United States is the world's leading importer of the bean.

Days before the tariff hike on Brazilian exports came into effect, the United States Secretary of Commerce, Howard Lutnick, himself stated that the American government was considering eliminating the tariff on foods that are not produced in the country, citing coffee.

The decision to tax the commodity ushered in a period of strong uncertainty in the global market.

Traders in both the physical coffee market and futures contracts have entered a wait-and-see mode, awaiting a possible agreement between Brazil and the US for trade in the product, which has so far remained unresolved.

On August 6, when the new American tariff on Brazilian exports came into effect, Arabica coffee was trading at US$286 per hundred pounds on the New York Stock Exchange, while Robusta was trading at US$3,340 per ton on the London Stock Exchange.

The prices represented a significant drop from the record levels of 2024, when contracts reached US$448 and US$5.8 thousand, respectively, due to the low movement of international trade.

Since the introduction of tariffs on Brazilian products, however, grain trade has grown again, mainly from the United States, Europe and Asia, in anticipation of new increases and due to increased consumption in the Northern Hemisphere, due to the approach of winter.

The increase in demand, combined with a reduction in the supply of Brazilian coffee in the 2025/26 harvest and losses caused by frost in the Cerrado Mineiro region, caused the prices of beans to reverse the trend and begin to rise, reaching, on August 31, US$ 386 for Arabica coffee, and US$ 4,815, in the case of Robusta – increases of 34.9% and 44.2%, respectively, in about a month.

"With a price of US$386 on the New York Stock Exchange plus the 50% tariff, Brazilian Arabica coffee would cost US$579 to American importers, higher than last year's all-time high of US$448," says Márcio Ferreira, president of the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafé). "These tariffs are prohibitive for buying Brazilian coffee."

In August, coffee exports to the US fell 46% compared to 2024

According to Cecafé, Brazil shipped 301,000 bags to the US in August, all from sales made in July that were delayed due to logistical problems or contracts signed before August 6.

In the same month of 2024, the volume was 563 thousand bags, which means a decline of 46.5% from one year to the next.

In addition to reflecting the high tariffs, the drop is also the result of a comparison base that is well above average – last year Brazil recorded record coffee exports.

Compared to July 2025, when 408 thousand bags were exported to the American market, the reduction in the volume shipped is 26.2%.

“It's important to do this monthly analysis, because if this year's harvest is smaller, exports would necessarily fall, regardless of tariffs,” explains Ferreira.

He also compares it with the German market, which in August imported 414,000 bags of Brazilian coffee, surpassing the US as the main buyer of the Brazilian commodity in the month.

"While the United States reduced its imports by 46% year-over-year, Germany's imports fell by 24% compared to last year," says the president of Cecafé. Compared to July, when Brazil sold 265,000 bags, the Germans increased their purchases of Brazilian coffee by 56.2%.

The US is still expected to buy Brazilian coffee, but may gradually replace it.

The numbers do not yet reflect a reallocation of Brazilian exports, according to Ferreira, since purchases from European countries also tend to increase from the second half of the year, due to the harvest of the Brazilian crop and the approach of winter in the Northern Hemisphere.

For the National Supply Company (CONAB), replacing Brazilian coffee with products from other origins in the United States market will not be easy. "First, because global supply and demand are aligned, with the lowest stocks in 25 years; second, because the United States would have to compete for this substitute coffee with other important import hubs, such as Europe, for example," the agency's bulletin states.

“In this context, the trend is for coffee prices to rise in the United States and other important consumer centers.”

One of the concerns of Brazilian coffee exporters is a gradual shift in coffee consumption habits in the US. According to an American coffee executive, due to high costs, there is a tendency to gradually reduce the use of Brazilian beans in blends sold on American shelves.

Since the change occurs gradually, consumers shouldn't notice the difference as they would if the change were made suddenly. "This could lead to losses that are very difficult to recover," says the president of Cecafé.