Brazil exports more meat after tariff hike; in the US, prices soar

Despite the industry's apprehension before the US tariff hike began, Brazilian beef exports have shown significant increases even after the new tariffs took effect. This concern stems from the fact that, until last year, the US market was the second-largest export destination for Brazilian beef.

At the end of July, the president of the Brazilian Association of Meat Exporting Industries (Abiec), Roberto Perosa, stated that the sector could lose up to US$1 billion in 2025 alone due to the tariff announced by the United States.

And indeed, sales to the US fell after the surcharge, but beef trade with other countries more than made up for that loss.

According to partial data from the Ministry of Development, Industry and Commerce (MDIC), however, international shipments of fresh, refrigerated or frozen protein from Brazil generated a daily average of US$74.55 million until August 25.

This represents a 70.1% increase compared to the same month in 2024, when US$43.83 million were sold abroad per day. To put this in perspective, the US$30.71 million daily increase is the largest in absolute terms in Brazilian industry's exports.

As a result, the share of beef in total Brazilian foreign sales jumped from 3.35% in August 2024 to 5.22% in the same month this year, considering the period up to the 25th.

In terms of volume, Brazil exported an average of 13,307 tons per day in the first 25 days of the month. Last year, the supply of Brazilian beef protein on the global market was 9,882 tons per day, representing a 34.7% increase this year year-over-year and a 26.3% increase in the price per ton (US$4,435.40 in August 2024 and US$5,602 in August 2025).

Among the Brazilian agricultural products most exported to the United States, beef is second, behind only coffee.

Market analyst João Otávio Figueiredo, head of livestock at the consulting firm Datagro, explains, however, that although the United States is one of the most important foreign markets for Brazilian beef, the tariff hike comes at a time when the sector, on the one hand, is shifting its shipments to China and, on the other, is advancing in the diversification of other destinations.

Between January and July of this year, Brazil exported 1.56 million tons of beef globally. Of this amount, 790,100 tons (50.5%) went to the Asian giant, while the Americans purchased 169,200 tons (10.8%), according to the Ministry of Development, Industry and Commerce (MDIC).

"Meat sales to the United States represent 4% of all Brazilian meat production. Is that a significant volume? Yes, but not as significant as [shipments to] China, which, if the market were closed, would be very difficult," he says.

In this sense, explains Figueiredo, the North American market is more dependent on importing products from Brazil than the Brazilian industry is on exports to the USA.

Brazil has an annual export quota of 70,000 tons of tariff-free beef—a volume reached in less than a month this year. Above that, the meat was subject to a 26.4% import tax, which, with the tariff hike, now reaches 76.4%, making any negotiations impossible.

"As the United States accelerates purchases from other suppliers, such as Australia and Argentina, these countries' exports to China are reduced, opening up more space for Brazilian products in the Chinese market," says the analyst.

With tariffs on Brazilian beef, prices soar in the United States

Although the United States still sells part of its production to other countries, it was once the world's leading beef exporter, but is facing a crisis in the livestock sector, with the lowest herd size in 70 years.

The situation isn't unique to Brazil. In the European Union, cattle stocks are at their lowest point in four decades. "Today, the commercial cattle herd stands at 585 million head, plus approximately 300 million in India that are not considered commercially viable due to the Hindu religion, which prohibits slaughter," says Figueiredo. "We've never had so few cattle in the world."

"There's a global shortage of cattle and, consequently, meat. In the coming years, there will likely be many changes in the animal protein complex, and Brazil is very well positioned in this market," he explains.

The increase in tariffs on Brazilian meat entering the US has mainly affected American consumers, where prices have soared in recent months, reaching an all-time high in July.

Brazil is the origin of 26.6% of all US beef imports, according to data from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the average consumer price of ground beef reached $6.504 per pound (about 453 grams) – the equivalent of R$77.71 per kilogram at the current exchange rate. In January, it was $5.82/lb (R$69.54/kg), representing an increase of 11.75% in six months.

For comparison purposes, the country's accumulated inflation in the 12 months through July is 2.7%, according to the BLS.

According to reports from representatives of Brazilian meatpacking plants, although shipments to the United States are suspended, there are American importers who are already considering importing meat from Brazil even with the 50% surcharge.

“There are people doing calculations to see if they can make ends meet with the 76.4% tariff to try to board,” says the Datagro analyst.

After tariff hike, Mexico became the second largest importer of Brazilian beef

Beef exports to the United States have been declining since the 10% tariff on Brazilian products came into effect. After exporting 44,200 tons in April, a record monthly volume for the two countries, the sector shipped 22,500 tons in May and 13,400 tons in June.

In July, with imports of 12,700 tons, the US was surpassed in the ranking of destinations for Brazilian protein by neighboring Mexico, which received 15,600 tons. Last year, the Latin American country ranked only tenth.

According to Figueiredo, part of the Brazilian meat purchased by Mexico is processed in the local agribusiness to be internalized by the United States.

In August, up until the 25th, Brazil sent 7.8 thousand tons of meat to the American market, while Mexico had already imported 10.2 thousand tons, according to the Brazilian Meat Exporting Industry Association (Abiec).

With this, the Americans have already been surpassed, this month, also by Russia and Chile, both with 7.9 thousand tons.

China, in turn, brought good news for the Brazilian sector by announcing the extension of a safeguard investigation into beef imports on the 6th – the same date the US increased tariffs on Brazilian products.

Launched in December 2024, the safeguard investigation is a mechanism used when a country identifies a sharp increase in imports of a certain product, with potential harm to the domestic industry.

The measure, which could result in China imposing tariffs or creating quotas to limit imports, generated strong expectations in the global market. On the 6th, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced a three-month extension of the investigation, with the deadline now set for November 27th.

"It's a very important market signal that they don't want to close the door now: 'Is the United States closing? So please send meat here,'" explains the Datagro analyst.

Brazil exports beef to 134 countries

On another front, Brazil is making progress in conquering new destinations for livestock production. In just over two years, the beef sector has gained 17 new international markets for its products. Last year, Brazilian beef reached 134 destinations, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MDIC).

Mexico, currently among the largest importers, only began purchasing Brazilian beef in March 2023, after 12 years of negotiations. In August of the same year, they began allowing Brazilian beef into the Dominican Republic and Singapore.

Last year, the Brazilian government announced the opening of the market for exports of bone-in beef to Egypt and boneless beef cuts to Papua New Guinea.

In 2025, 12 new destinations were authorized: Kenya, in January; Bhutan and Suriname, in February; Bosnia and Herzegovina, Sarawak (a Malaysian state with its own certification) and Vietnam, in March; Bahamas, in May; El Salvador, in July; Philippines, Indonesia and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, in August.

Having recently obtained the status of a country free of foot-and-mouth disease without vaccination, Brazil hopes to soon open the Japanese market for beef exports, a qualification the sector has sought for over 20 years.

Since 2023, Japan has purchased canned beef and beef extract from Brazilian agribusinesses. In 2024, Japan imported 526,200 tons of the product, mainly from Australia and the United States.