The Great Illusion. Will we fall for it again?

The country has been living through terrible days due to the fires. Days that the vast majority of Portuguese people never expected to experience again. And they didn't expect it because this is a complex issue, poorly understood by the general public. Which is, in fact, more than natural – most people, myself and the readers included, lack a great deal of specific knowledge about most of the problems, ending up relying, albeit with varying degrees of caution, on the organizations they support with their taxes to solve their problems.

Stephen Pyne gave us (and he gave us specifically, in one article – one of several – that he wrote about our country in 2006), nevertheless, a framework:

"Unlike the other elements—water, earth, and air—fire does not exist on its own. It is, rather, a reaction, the brilliant sum of its circumstances. It is a creation of its context. To know that context is to know fire. To control that context is to control fire."

And what context is this, then?

It's nothing new either.

"We are facing a problem of enormous economic and social scope that demands solutions other than the benevolence and sacrifice of the Firefighters, who despite their heroism, have neither the power nor the means to overcome a danger that is becoming the number one enemy of the people and property of these people of Beiras, already so tormented by the hard life imposed on them by the culture of the meager land.

Nowadays, the bush has begun to grow freely, reaching meters in height in a short time, creating impenetrable thickets, with the added problem of extending to every corner, even close to towns.

Fire will continue to be king and lord of our lands if other solutions are not studied and put into practice…”

These lines were written by José de Oliveira e Costa, in the newspaper A Comarca de Arganil (nº 6196) in 1967! But they could have been written today.

In fact, I've lost count of the times I've written this here, what is truly decisive in the problem of fires is the fuel accumulated in the landscapes that the rural exodus left abandoned (For example, Pampilhosa da Serra, one of the municipalities where fire has been a scourge, had 15,500 inhabitants in the 1940s, ended the 20th century with just over 5,000, and continued to lose, being today below 4,000).

It seems simple, but it's been difficult to understand. Various myths contribute to public confusion when the fires are in the news. On the other hand, once the hours of distress have passed, oblivion quickly sets in. And since those to whom we entrust this task tell us that much has been done... We believe.

But isn't it true that a lot has been done, a lot of money invested, reinforcing structures, infrastructures, equipment, developing plans, implementing various programs, streamlining processes, changing various legislation, etc., etc.?

Yes, it's true. But it's only half true. Because these are secondary issues for our safety regarding this problem. The accumulation of brush is the context Pyne spoke of, and its control is the way to control the context of the fire, that is, the fire itself.

Yet in the landscape, the weeds, as Oliveira e Costa told us in the distant year of 1967, continue to grow freely. Consequently, all the hard work that has been done elsewhere ends up being worthless. It's a false sense of security. A half-truth. And as the Chinese proverb says, if it's a half-truth, it's a whole lie.

If there were any doubts, here's the proof: without clearing the brush, the fire itself ends up doing it, via unwanted and undesirable fires (because many of them were catastrophic). The major fires of 2003 and 2005, and then 2016 and especially 2017, were the largest brush clearings we've ever seen (in these two short periods together, 1.5 million hectares burned, substantially more than the 1.1 million burned in the remaining 17 years—from 2006 to 2024). Naturally, the years following these major fires would inevitably be calmer.

But it doesn't take much cleverness to realize that the effect is temporary; the vegetation grows back, and the danger resurfaces! However, what did we hear in those intervals (whether it was under the Socialist Party or the Social Democratic Party)? It's worth refreshing your memory:

2008: “Last year we had the best year ever and this year we improved even more.”;

2008: “There is good cooperation (…) we now have better coordination.”;

2014: “2014 was the best year in the last decade in terms of number of fires and area burned”;

2023: “Marcelo and Costa highlight lessons (from Pedrógão)”;

2023: “Firefighting: 2023 is one of the best years ever.”;

2024: “We are much better prepared and the Portuguese can rest assured.”

We are now, with pain (because what we could have done and didn't, now comes the fire to do brutally), realizing that we were immersed in an illusion. Again in an illusion. Will we wake up for good? Or when the rain comes, will we allow ourselves to be deceived again?