This is what the markets will live by: Polish elections, European PMI and the American labor market

The first week of June in the world of finance will be dominated by the ECB decision, the publication of PMI readings and monthly reports from the American labor market. We in Poland will learn the results of the presidential election and the decision of the Monetary Policy Council.

We will probably find out in the morning who will become the new president of Poland. On Friday before noon, the results shown by the Polymarket platform gave over 63% for Rafał Trzaskowski's victory. We can assume that this is also the base scenario of most investors (especially foreign ones).

The macroeconomic calendar will be dominated by May's PMI readings for manufacturing. As usual, we'll start with Australia (1:00), Japan (2:30) and India (7:00), then move on to Europe. Data from Poland and Hungary will be released at 9:00, Spain fifteen minutes later, the Czech Republic and Switzerland at 9:30, Italy at 9:45, France at 9:50, Germany at 9:55, and finally the final reading for the eurozone at 10:00, and Great Britain at 10:30 for good measure). The Piemaj relay will be completed by Canada (15:30) and the United States (15:45). Additionally, at 16:00, we'll get to know the analogous ISM indicator for the American manufacturing sector.

In addition, at 10:00, the Central Statistical Office will publish the final statistics of Poland's gross domestic product for the first quarter of 2025. We already know the preliminary data, which indicated a slight slowdown in economic growth at the beginning of 2025 .

Connoisseurs of macro data in the morning (8:00) will be able to regale themselves with CPI inflation in Switzerland, which already reached a round zero in April . In contrast, the official CPI inflation in Turkey (9:00) is expected to continue to exceed 30%.

At 9:50, debt markets will await a speech by the head of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda. The BoJ is expected to raise interest rates again in the coming months. 11:00 is the time of publication of preliminary estimates of HICP inflation in the eurozone. Here, we are still waiting for a return to the almost mythical 2%, which is the official target of the European Central Bank. Forecasts indicate a reading of around 2.1%, compared to 2.2% in April. At the same time, we will learn April unemployment statistics in EU countries.

Americans will treat us to the April results of the JOLTS survey (at 4:00 p.m.) estimating the number of vacancies in the US economy. In addition, they will show the results of April orders in the industry.

This is the day of the Monetary Policy Council's decision. Most economists are inclined to the opinion that after the May cut, the Council will decide to wait for new data and keep the NBP rates unchanged. Further rate cuts are expected in July and autumn. As usual, we know the day, but not the hour of the announcement of the MPC decision. The official statement of the Council is planned for 16:00.

First, however, at 9:00 the Czechs will publish the May CPI inflation and April retail sales figures. The rest of Europe will receive a portion of PMI indicators for the service sectors in the largest economies of the Old Continent. This time, it may be worth paying attention to data, as recent data have shown a deterioration in this key segment of the European economy. Data for the eurozone will be released as usual at 10:00.

Americans will publish more data from the labor market at 14:15. This time it will be the ADP report measuring employment in the private sector, treated as a forecast before Friday's report from the government's Bureau of Labor Statistics. At 16:00 we will receive the May ISM index for the services sector. And at 15:45 the Bank of Canada will announce its decision on interest rates. We end the day with reading the Beige Book, which describes the state of the US economy in an anecdotal way.

Early this morning (08:00), Germany will publish April industrial orders, which saw a solid recovery in March. At the same time, Swedish statisticians will present May's CPI inflation reading, which was already close to zero in April. At 11:00, Eurostat will show April's producer inflation (PPI) for the eurozone.

The publication of the week should be the decision of the European Central Bank, which at 14:15 is to announce another 25-point cut in interest rates in the eurozone . The reference rate is to fall to just 2.15%, or to equal the current HICP inflation. The deposit rate is to be reduced to 2%, and in this way we will approach the end of the cycle of rate cuts in the eurozone.

Just fifteen minutes later, the Americans will show their April trade balance. This is a political and economic publication and the first month of Trump's "reciprocal tariffs". We should therefore expect a collapse in imports, which have reached record volumes for the previous six months. In addition, weekly statistics on the number of applications for unemployment benefits will be shown (14:30). All this in anticipation of the routine press conference of ECB President Cristine Lagarde, which will start at 14:45.

It's the first Friday of the month, which on financial markets means the day the US job market report is published (as usual at 2:30 p.m.). After the May "payrolls," economists expect the creation of just 130,000 new jobs and the unemployment rate to remain at a relatively low level of 4.2%. The Canadians will also present a similar report at 2:30 p.m.

But before that happens, the Reserve Bank of India should lower interest rates by 25 basis points (from 6.00% to 5.75%). At 8:00, Germany will release its trade balance (for April) and April industrial production statistics. At 8:45, we will also learn France's trade balance - all in the context of President Trump's trade wars. At 11:00, Eurostat will release very old - but final - GDP data for Q1. At the same time, April retail sales statistics in EU countries will be released.

For dessert, we will get the minutes of the May meeting of the Monetary Policy Council, at which a 50-point reduction in NBP interest rates took place. And for supper, we will have statistics on consumer credit in the United States.

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