The oil market is at risk. The Caspian Sea is drying up.

• The level of the Caspian Sea is falling at an increasingly rapid pace - in 30 years it has already fallen by 2.5 meters, and is currently decreasing by 20-30 cm per year.
• This phenomenon hampers port operations, causing problems for ships in Baku and increasing the cost of oil transportation.
• Expensive dredging work is required at the Dubendi terminal to maintain capacity and allow the largest tankers to enter.

Azerbaijan's Deputy Ecology Minister Rauf Hajiyev told Reuters that the level of the world's largest salt lake has been decreasing for decades, but that the process is now accelerating significantly:

• over the last five years the water level has dropped by 0.93 meters,
• within ten - by 1.5 meters,
• over the last three decades - by as much as 2.5 meters.

Currently, the rate of decline is estimated at 20-30 centimeters per year - we read.

“The retreat of the coastline is changing natural conditions, disrupting economic activity and creating new challenges for sustainable development,” Hajiyev said.

Oil transport threatens. Caspian Sea dries up

Russia claims that the drying up of the Caspian Sea is linked to climate change. Azerbaijan, however, believes that Russia's construction of dams on the Volga River, which supplies 80 percent of the lake's water, also contributes to the problem.

The drop in water levels is already affecting the lives of coastal communities and the operation of ports.

Ships entering and maneuvering in the port of Baku are encountering increasing difficulties, which limits transshipment capacity and increases logistics costs, we read.

The Dubendi oil terminal – the largest in the Azerbaijani part of the Caspian Sea – transported 810,000 tons of crude oil and petroleum products in the first half of 2025, compared to 880,000 tons in the same period last year. This decrease is attributed to the need for large-scale dredging operations necessary to maintain the port's stable operation.

Reuters reports that in 2024, more than 250,000 cubic meters of sediment were extracted at the Dubendi terminal alone to ensure that the largest tankers could enter without restrictions.