It was discussed too late in Germany: Europe

The elections in Germany were a rollercoaster: first it was about the economy, later it was about American interference in these elections, about a stricter asylum policy, the maintenance of the Brandmauer (the rejection of cooperation with the radical right AfD) and finally also about Trump's possible departure from Europe. The result of this shortened shock therapy is that the German voter realizes like no other how important it is that politics now takes a new course. This is certainly also evident from the historically high turnout of 84 percent, the highest turnout since 1990.

The question remains whether the voter is well informed about the major challenges that await the country with this election campaign. This was hardly discussed in the campaign. With their election programs, the intended new coalition parties CDU and SPD have deliberately put on a good show. The CDU program in particular is making great strides quickly. The party's starting point is that confidence in the economy will automatically be restored after cuts in government spending, deregulation and tax cuts for citizens and businesses. But that is not a given.

The Social Democrats have also made promises that they cannot simply keep. According to Chancellor Olaf Scholz, military aid to Ukraine cannot be at the expense of social policy: it is not either-or but and-and. The SPD promises tax relief for low middle incomes, a reduction in VAT and an increase in the minimum wage.

So, nice gifts. But it is unlikely that the entire package can actually be realized.

Not a word

Because the challenges for the new German government in the making are unprecedentedly great. For example, there is the backlog of maintenance of schools, roads and bridges that arose during the Merkel years. Estimates assume that 50 billion euros are needed for the renovation of schools and a sloppy 400 billion euros for the maintenance and construction of motorways, railways and energy infrastructure.

Defence expenditure must also be increased from 2 percent of GDP to possibly 3.5 percent. A simple calculation shows that the defence budget must then be increased from just under 90 billion to 150 billion euros. None of the election programmes mention this.

The biggest challenge facing Germany is whether the country, as the EU's most important economy, is able to take the lead in Europe, so that the EU can hold its own in the new geopolitical power game. Chancellor-designate Friedrich Merz is convinced that Germany must take on this role. There are certainly opportunities, but leadership in the EU is not free. Scholz also noticed this. During his well-known Zeitenwende speech shortly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, he emphasized the importance of building the next generation of fighter jets together with France. When push came to shove, the German Minister of Defense did not order Eurofighter fighter jets but American F-35s, which can be delivered much faster.

Safety umbrella

Things didn’t work out with Macron. In August 2022, Scholz initiated the European Sky Shield Initiative (ESSI) to create an integrated European air defense system. You could call it an example of successful German leadership. 23 countries are now participating. Notable absentees are France and Italy, which are developing their own air defense system that is not involved in the ESSI.

The French pursuit of European autonomy is not free of self-interest. If the American security umbrella were to lapse, Germany and the Netherlands would seek protection in the form of a European nuclear weapon. As a nuclear power, France could play an important role in this, but the country would certainly want something in return.

Of great importance to Germany is also the relationship with Poland, which is becoming increasingly important economically and militarily. But Scholz has also failed to intensify the relationship with the new Polish Tusk government. Tusk cannot afford to work together with Germany without a generous gesture from the German government.

After all, the Polish PiS party consistently portrays him as an agent of Germany. Donald Tusk must therefore be able to explain why he is making a turn towards Germany. There is much dissent in Poland about the increased border controls that cost Polish commuters unnecessary time. Moreover, Poland is strongly committed to strengthening NATO's eastern flank and European defence spending. Merz will therefore also have to open his wallet to structurally improve the relationship with Poland.

Restoring trust

In addition, the need to actually reform the EU is growing by the day. The path Mario Draghi pointed out in the report named after him – more market, more innovation, more investment in a digital infrastructure – was rejected by Merz because it costs too much money.

The new cabinet's main task is to regain the trust of citizens and businesses. In several East German constituencies such as Bautzen and the Ore Mountains, the radical right-wing AfD won more than 45 percent of the votes. The AfD has a completely different worldview, in which domestic problems are central. Especially in East Germany, the party has become an integral part of regional culture. You can no longer ignore it. In order to restore trust in politics, haste is essential. German politics will have to offer a credible future perspective again that simultaneously offers solutions for local, regional, national and European problems.

Merz has one advantage: there is a sense of urgency about Germany's role in Europe. This election campaign, and especially the American involvement, has certainly brought that.