The coincidence between Leandro Santoro and Manuel Adorni that could trigger the election year

If a Pyrrhic victory is a triumph that could prove unfavorable to the winner due to the cost it entails, Leandro Santoro and Manuel Adorni are clinging to the opposite formula. Or something like that. Both the Peronist K-19 candidate and the libertarian believe that on May 18th, more important than winning in the city is for the PRO party to lose and finish third . A coincidence that, they assume, could trigger an election year due to the impact it would have on Macri's party.

The presidential spokesman came clean in an interview with La Nación . "Losing by one point to Santoro wouldn't be bad," he summed up. What he didn't say was more important: that La Libertad Avanza 's priority , in this case, is to beat the PRO in the district where it was born and raised .

And they even dare to predict: in a hypothetical head-to-head for the Buenos Aires City Government in 2027, they feel like favorites, comfortable, over the radical K. A recent survey by a consulting firm that usually gives high numbers to the libertarians, posed an Adorni vs. Santoro and the spokesman won 71.7% to 28.3% . Futurism.

What defines the present, yes, is this consensus on the mutual benefit of a tough defeat for the PRO . Santoro admits this in private conversations. He believes that if Macri's party comes third in an election he decided to hold early, and where the ruling party has been undefeated since 2007, what lies ahead will be politically catastrophic.

In the background, there is a debate about whether the Libertarians and Macri supporters should run together in the 2025 legislative elections, which have early local and national elections on October 26. The Buenos Aires City elections on March 18, which will formally renew 30 seats on the former City Council, will be the first real test of where the PRO and LLA stand.

Both accuse each other of having acted in the City to prevent a coalition . The Libertarians point to the Macris for having brought forward the election date, allegedly "to protect their business." Meanwhile, the Yellows' camp responds that Karina Milei never intended to reach an agreement.

The President's sister goes a little further to explain her anger: she says that the only thing she asked of the head of government was to relegate Ramiro Marra from the Buenos Aires Legislature, in the fight they had over the La Libertad Avanza seal, and she asserts that he did not do it.

In any case, both sides are, a priori, at a disadvantage in the fight. The bulk of the polls published since the closing of the lists in late March show Santoro ahead . "We believe we can get between 25 and 30 points. We'll have to see if that's enough to win," analyzes sources close to the K-candidate.

The government recognizes the current leadership of the Union for the Homeland deputy, but they trust that sooner rather than later the fight will become polarized and Adorni will gain ground . In recent days , a couple of polls have appeared showing the spokesperson in the lead .

The PRO party is struggling to hide its concern. Mauricio Macri's decision to lead the local campaign was compounded this Monday by the reappearance of Gabriela Michetti . The former vice president, who for years stood out as Macri's most popular figure in the district, hit hard at Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, who is running as a candidate outside the party and could be the kryptonite that triggers the yellow debacle.

With three weeks of campaigning left, the PRO party is clinging to generating brand awareness and mobilizing a structure that has been well-oiled for years for these types of fights. They admit that their top candidate, Silvia Lospennato , still has a high level of awareness, but they add that it's on the rise. If true, the question remains: how far will it go? And, above all, whether it will be enough to avoid the desire that unites Kirchnerists and libertarians .