Manual for dealing with a black swan

What happened? Who is responsible for the blackout? How can it be prevented from happening again? Answering these three questions is the primary task of a government when facing a crisis like the one caused by the blackout that affected the entire Iberian Peninsula last Monday. The worst thing that could happen to the president is not being able to answer these three questions because even if there is a desire for transparency, it is impossible to exercise it.

Pedro Sánchez's public address last Tuesday revealed a certain impatience to have the necessary information to answer the questions that all citizens are asking. In fact, the Moncloa government is already considering a minimum of three months to truly understand the cause of the historic blackout . They explain it with a simile from the world of aviation: it's a bit like decoding a black box for each of the hundreds of solar panels in several suspicious plants. A huge task.

Without knowing what happened, it's difficult to identify someone responsible and move on to the next phase: announcing measures to prevent a repeat. Sánchez's appearance reflected the contradiction between admitting that the source of the mess is still unknown and simultaneously pointing out possible culprits, whether with his clear desire to distance himself from Red Eléctrica Española (REE) or with his warning to private operators that he will go "to the bottom," in addition to the symbolic photo op in Moncloa with the electricity company executives.

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Sánchez has mastered the manual for dealing with the sudden appearance of a black swan. He immediately went to the Spanish National Renewal Council (REE) and convened all possible crisis committees. He has undeniable experience in crisis management and knows that the worst thing is to stay in the office. But every crisis has its own dynamics. This time, the difficulty of explaining oneself and acting accordingly is no less difficult when it comes to restoring citizens' confidence and trying to dispel the image of a national botched job.

At yesterday's press conference following the Council of Ministers, the government expressed its support for the president of REE, Beatriz Corredor, a former minister under Zapatero. It did so, above all, by emphasizing the speed with which electricity service was restored. REE is a company in which the state holds a 20% stake through the SEPI (Spanish Securities and Exchange Commission). This was despite Sánchez's wish to make it clear the day before that he does not side with anyone when it comes to determining responsibilities.

The debate on whether or not to nuclear power is a classic in Spanish politics.

The president also attempted to settle the debate over nuclear power, encouraged primarily by the People's Party (PP). This blackout will serve as a catalyst to fuel the classic division between those in favor of closing nuclear power plants and those who demand their continuation. Sánchez came out strongly, asserting that nuclear power plants were more "the problem" than the solution when it came to restoring the downed grid, as they consume a lot of energy to keep their cores stable.

The debate over nuclear power is a classic part of Spanish politics. As was the debate over investment in defense. But as in this case, the paradigms of decades past are changing. In other countries, such as Finland, which is not suspected of ecological insensitivity, the rejection of nuclear power has been softened as an alternative to facilitate decarbonization, although waste remains a major problem. The European Commission has also been more understanding regarding the future of nuclear power due to pressure from France.

In Spain, the division between supporters (right) and detractors (left) remains entrenched. The PSOE (Spanish Socialist Workers' Party) includes the gradual dismantling of nuclear power plants in its platform, although it should be noted that the timeframe is far off. The Almaraz nuclear plant in Extremadura has long been a foregone conclusion, but for the rest of the country, the forecast extends to 2035. And it's unknown how many black swans, what needs stemming from, for example, Artificial Intelligence, or even what technological improvements affecting the world of energy production may emerge until then.

Knowing exactly what happened is something that will take time.

Sánchez wanted to make his government's commitment to renewable energy very clear. Not only for ideological reasons, but also because it has long been considered a competitive advantage over other countries in attracting significant investment. Renewable energy is cheaper and, for companies, represents a determining factor. Therefore, the last thing the government wants is for the viability of an electricity system based on this type of energy to be called into question.

Knowing exactly what happened will take time, although experts are already offering some explanations. Among them, I'd like to share with you the one offered by Miguel Simón Martín, professor of Electrical Engineering at the University of León. In an article published in Science Media Centre Spain, he explains in a very informative way how the Spanish electrical system works, which has been considered, at least until now, particularly "robust."

Simón Martín compares it to a "meshed system of interconnected pipes." If more water were pumped in than consumed, the pipes could burst. If less were pumped in, demand would not be met. But this scheme requires a much more demanding level of precision, which must also absorb potential incidents. In this case, it is known to have been a generation problem, not a demand problem. When there are failures, as a last resort, areas of the grid can be disconnected. The difference with the hydrological simile is that electricity is more difficult to store. We have little stored electricity. To avoid problems, we must have a "meshed" grid, international interconnection, and "synchronous generators" to provide inertia that can absorb fluctuations and act as small energy reservoirs, the professor explains. And he concludes that we have all of that, but fewer international connections. What was an advantage for our pockets with the famous "Iberian exception" when war was declared in Ukraine, is now a disadvantage.

Continuing with the explanation, with renewables entering the grid with significant importance (they already account for 66% of installed capacity), it turns out that wind and photovoltaic systems lack the inertia that hydroelectric or thermal generation systems do. Therefore, the more renewables, the less robust they are, unless additional investments are made. The problem could have stemmed from this, but it's not certain. In fact, the government is also considering that some incident abroad, for example in France, could have acted like a whiplash effect.

As we say, understanding the cause is essential, and managing its communication, taking into account the complexity of what we're dealing with, is even more so. In this case, there isn't even material available to communicate, and the information vacuum is always susceptible to being filled by various theories. Furthermore, politics has little understanding of nuances and jumps from one controversy to another with just a few stock phrases. After all, crises follow one another almost without giving us time to catch our breath. Next Wednesday, Sánchez will appear in Congress to report on defense spending and now also on the blackout.