Days of fury: PP-Vox

Falling Down ( 1993 ) is a masterful film. It tells the story of William D-Fens Foster , an ordinary citizen played by Michael Douglas who grows weary of his daily frustrations in Los Angeles, abandoning his car in a traffic jam and unleashing a wave of violence. An iconic moment from the film, always remembered, is his monologue-reflection on the highway about the “point of no return”: “I’ve passed the moment of doubt. You know when that is? It’s the moment in a journey when it’s longer to go back to where I started than to continue to the end.”

The PP-Vox "point of no return" has arrived. This is confirmed by the raw data from the CIS (National Electoral Commission ). Today, the net transfer from the PP to Vox stands, as we anticipated months ago, at one million votes, which is a disaster in terms of the electoral market for Alberto Núñez Feijóo's party. In contrast to this exuberance, the net transfer from the PSOE to the PP amounts to only 150,000 votes, a mere trifle considering all the experience. The CIS (National Electoral Commission) also corroborates another certainty: the right is completely incapable of surpassing its historical ceiling, which is the 12 million votes obtained by Mariano Rajoy and Rosa Díez in November 2011.

The net transfer from the PP to Vox stands at one million votes, which is a disaster for Feijóo's party.

Change is still more likely than continuity. But with two caveats that could favor one bloc or the other: first, according to so many polls, the right wins—according to a standard estimate—184 seats, provided Podemos and Sumar run separately, but only 177 if they combined their votes into a single ticket; second, up to 250,000 PSOE voters are moving to Vox. Vox as a rupture zone could be a point of no return for everyone, including the PSC and the Catalan Alliance.

In the right-wing Liga, the PP, as a democratic right, already represents a little less than 60% of those votes, while Vox, and far behind, SALF, as an authoritarian right, represents the remaining 40%. This is the new measure used to design the Mercedes-PP . This is how the 2025-2026 political year begins, which should end with regional elections in Andalusia and Castile and León. Let's look at the Andalusian elections: the risk facing President Juanma Moreno is evident, because those elections will not determine his continuity in San Telmo, but rather whether Vox again conditions his governability as it did in 2018 and the PP ceases to be a Merz-style democratic right. That will be the milestone they should overcome. If Vox decides, Andalusia will be like the spur in the sheriff's long ride to try to surpass the 20% mark that Santiago Abascal's party technically holds. Like Chega in Portugal, so close to Andalusia.

Susana Díaz , who is technically the political umbrella of the current Andalusian PP, thought she had the situation under control when she called early elections in March 2015 to stop Podemos and assert herself as the leader in Spain. However, the PSOE backtracked, and Díaz had to agree with Ciudadanos (the right) to continue, which was short-lived, without causing Podemos (the left) to disappear—on the contrary. Andalusia, like Catalonia or the Valencian Community, always anticipates general elections. It is a great historical nationality with a vision for the future. It did so again in 2018 when Vox emerged in its first real elections, paving the way for the three right-wing parties of 2019, those of the Plaza de Colón. And, finally, it did so in 2022 when Moreno won the absolute majority, opening a new electoral cycle, the blue summer color, which Feijóo let slip on June 23 by 20,000 votes in four provinces. That Andalusian majority was achieved in the last week. They also lost those general elections in seven days.

So always keep an eye on Andalusia, because that's what Spain is all about, whether Moreno holds his ground or gives in to Vox, even though the narrative industry in Madrid DF is at full capacity amid so much anguish, offal, and corrosion. Spain's future is at stake in the "inverted Greek Y": Seville, Valencia, Barcelona, ​​Vitoria. Not just Madrid. The democratic right will remain officially installed in a zero-sum game as long as the PP doesn't recover the transfer of voters from the PSOE by showing itself as a plural right. In these days of fury, the PP has forgotten one of Douglas's maxims in the superlative film: "The customer is always right. Well, here I am. I am the customer. I don't want lunch, I want breakfast." That's what Vox voters are telling the PP.

Next week Sánchez, Zapatero and Aznar

We wrote it on these pages on February 3rd: Sánchez will surpass Zapatero in total days as president on February 2nd, 2026, and Aznar on June 12th, 2026. If this happens, he will be the second-longest-serving prime minister in Spanish democracy after Felipe González. When the latter is at an impasse, Sánchez, whether right or wrong, will be able to anticipate. In that article, we also said that a meeting between Pedro Sánchez and Carles Puigdemont in Brussels would be like winning a vote of confidence.

The Hawkeye The general elections

The general elections, when they come, will have nothing to do with 2011. It won't be a campaign with three million demobilized people on the left, as happened with Zapatero's resignation and Rubalcaba's replacement, with their arms folded, waiting for the right to overwhelm them. In politics, water never flows twice in the same river. It's good to remember this because no one will be able to build their campaign on this scenario. The plurinational factor will arrive exhausted, ready to challenge the authoritarian factor in the tiebreaker. The democratic camp must find a new factor.