The reasons behind the fall in the number of long-term unemployed below one million

The Active Population Survey (EPA) at the end of the year showed a milestone in terms of long-term unemployment: for the first time in 15 years, the number of unemployed people who had been looking for work for more than a year fell below one million in the last quarter of 2024. The reasons for this feat , which the labour market had not achieved since 2010, are analysed by the Adecco Foundation in its latest Observatory of Vulnerability and Employment and points to new digital jobs or teleworking as drivers of the improvement.

First, the explanation for the problem . Long-term unemployment is often explained by factors such as the concatenation of crises in recent years, causing economic recessions or the dependence on cyclical sectors such as tourism or construction (the Spanish economy is very linked to tourism and hospitality to the detriment of other strategic sectors that generate stable and quality employment); when these falter, they generate large waves of layoffs, with difficulty in relocating their professionals to other areas of activity.

Another factor is that automation and the adoption of new technologies can make certain jobs obsolete or create a gap between the skills of professionals and the demands of the labour market. "In this regard, we have an educational system with high dropout rates and which does not prepare professionals for the real labour market, perpetuating unemployment and causing it to become structural," the report points out.

Second, the numbers . The data, published by the National Institute of Statistics (INE) at the end of January, indicate that long-term unemployment fell to 999,700 people in the period between October and December, 13.4% less than a year ago and 70% below the figure from 10 years ago . What has changed to cause this fall?

According to the report, the reasons behind the drop recorded by Statistics are the reintegration of unemployed people into new jobs driven by digitalization and in areas such as e-commerce, logistics, customer service or management of digital platforms. Also the gradual recovery and reactivation of sectors such as tourism or transport, paralyzed during the most critical years of the pandemic, contributes in this sense, according to analysts.

For the Adecco Foundation, remote work is also a driver of the reduction in long-term unemployment due to the easier access to the labour market for people who have difficulty travelling to a work environment. The positive impact of active employment policies and support programmes for updating skills and competencies completes the analysis of the causes that have led long-term unemployed people to find a job in less time.

Third, the personification of the problem . It must be taken into account that despite the improvement, the number of people affected by long-term unemployment remains high. In addition, the 12-month reference is still a long way off for most of these unemployed; of the 999,700, 375,000 had been looking for work for more than a year but less than two, but for 624,000, the situation had already lasted more than two years .

In this context, the observatory's analysis provides less positive data for professionals over 50 years of age and for women, who are the most affected by long-term unemployment in Spain.

People over 50 years of age make up 30% of the total unemployed , but 45% of the long-term unemployed, and 56% have been looking for work for more than a year without success. Specifically, 447,600 people over 50 years of age are long-term unemployed, out of a total of 800,000 job seekers of this age.

Working women, on the other hand, represent 52% of the total number of unemployed people in Spain , but also 56% of the long-term unemployed, compared to 44% who are men. While in general 39% of unemployed people go over a year without finding work, in the case of women the percentage rises to 41%, while among men it falls to 35%.