Pemex's natural gas production falls and moves away from the government's goal.

From January to May 2025, Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) natural gas production contracted 6.3% year-on-year to 3.534 billion cubic feet per day (mmcfd), marking its second consecutive year of decline, according to the state-owned company's statistics.

During the same period last year, the indicator fell 8.9% to 3,773 mmcf/d, amid the natural decline in well production and difficulties in completing wells.

Average production observed through May is 15% below the 2025 target of 4,163 mmcfd, set by the current administration of President Claudia Sheinbaum in November 2024 when she presented her "National Strategy for the Hydrocarbons and Natural Gas Sector."

The document, presented at the morning press conference at the National Palace on November 13, projects an expected recovery path for Pemex production, with the goal of exceeding 4.7 billion cubic meters per day starting in 2027.

And private production is expected to average 250 million cubic meters per day, so the goal for the end of the administration is a yield close to 5,000 million cubic meters per day, both public and private.

In its first-quarter 2025 report, Pemex explained that the reduction in production up to that point was due "mainly to the natural decline of mature fields and the technical complexity of well completions."

Fewer wells

As of May, Pemex completed drilling 30 hydrocarbon wells, 10 of which are exploratory and 20 are development wells.

This is the lowest number for a comparable period since 1995, when the state-owned company completed 28 drilling operations.

The decline comes as the state-owned company faces complaints from its suppliers of goods and services—such as drilling services—for lack of payments and failure to comply with its regularization program.

By the fifth month of the year, the company has also had to cut its physical investment spending by 11.5% to 136.477 billion pesos, amid the federal government's efforts to reduce the large fiscal deficit it faced last year, which was equivalent to 5.7% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Imports rise

Weaker domestic production—Pemex produces nearly 98% of the gas extracted in the country—has driven a rise in imports of dry gas, which is the molecule already processed for consumption in industry and homes.

The United States is Mexico's main supplier, and the electricity industry is its main consumer, accounting for 60% of total demand, which as of the third quarter of last year was just over 8,000 million cubic meters per day.

In 2024 alone, Mexico increased its imports of U.S. natural gas by 4.3% to a record 6.432 billion cubic meters per day, according to figures from the U.S. government's Energy Information Administration (EIA).