Inegi: Mexico's GDP will grow by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2025

MEXICO CITY.- Mexico's gross domestic product (GDP) grew 0.2% in the first three months of 2025, despite warnings of a recession due to U.S. trade uncertainty, the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) revealed the first timely estimate on Wednesday.

The increase, above market expectations, occurred thanks to the quarterly rebound in the agricultural sector (8.1%) and despite the decline in industry (-0.3%), while services did not vary (0%), detailed Inegi in its report, based on seasonally adjusted figures , without seasonal factors.

In the first quarter of 2025, and with seasonally adjusted figures, the results of the Timely Estimate of Quarterly Gross Domestic Product #EOPIBT indicate that #GDP increased 0.2% in real terms, at a quarterly rate. At an annual rate, the timely estimate showed… pic.twitter.com/NUQo2XtqLK

— INEGI INFORMS (@INEGI_INFORMA) April 30, 2025

Meanwhile, Mexico's GDP increased 0.8% year-on-year from January to March, according to original figures from the autonomous institute, resuming an upward trend after its 0.6% contraction from October to December, its first decline in three years.

This growth was the result of annual increases in primary (6.4%) and tertiary (1.5%) activities, although secondary activities decreased by 0.9%.

The first-quarter increase follows 1.5% GDP growth in 2024, although the economy contracted in the last three months due to the uncertainty created by the election of Donald Trump in the United States in November.

Mexico's data contrasted sharply with the United States, the destination for more than 84% of Mexican exports. This Wednesday, it was revealed that U.S. GDP fell 0.3% at an annualized rate, representing the first negative quarterly figure since 2022 and the first to include the start of the Trump presidency.

Trump's tariffs have raised economic alarm in Mexico , where last week the financial group Citi estimated that the country had entered a technical recession because it expected a contraction in the first quarter, which did not materialize.

In addition, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) last week predicted a 0.3% contraction in Mexico's GDP for this year, the World Bank projected a 0% recession, and the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) cut its outlook to 0.3% on Tuesday, only above Cuba, Haiti, and Venezuela.

Mexico is vulnerable to the US president's tariffs because exports to that country represent nearly 26% of GDP, according to Banco Base.

#LaMañaneraDelPueblo | President Claudia Sheinbaum highlighted Mexico's 0.8% economic growth, despite recession forecasts from opponents and organizations.

🇲🇽 She also announced that she will present the "Mexico Announces" plan on May 5. #Economy #Sheinbaum … pic.twitter.com/6VjjZGFkzF