Gold price has increased by 45% in the last year and is strengthening as a safe haven

The minutes of the Federal Reserve's meeting on January 28 and 29 have caused concern in the markets. The 19 representatives of the FED agreed to point out the risk that inflation in the United States will worsen, which rules out future cuts in interest rates. This situation negatively affects the debt bonds of Argentina and other emerging countries.

The convergence of the yield on US Treasury bonds, which stands at 4.53%, and the rise of the dollar against the six main currencies, have pushed investors away from Latin America. In this context, sovereign bonds suffered a drop of almost 2%, which raised the country risk by 23 units, reaching 719 basis points, the worst record since December 10. In contrast, the province of Buenos Aires took cover by announcing the payment of BA37 in dollars, which increased by 0.34%.

The impact spread to other markets: the emerging market ETF index fell by 0.2% and that of Brazil by 1.1%, due to the depreciation of the real and the fall of the São Paulo Stock Exchange (-0.95%). The Chinese yuan fell to 7.28 per dollar, almost reaching a peak, while gold recorded historic strength, reaching USD 2,949.40, with gains of 45% since February 2024.

The consequence of the confusing global scenario is the strength of gold, which reached a record of US$ 2,949.40 and accumulated gains of 45% against February 2024 , as it has become an attractive option for those seeking a safe haven.

According to Andrés Reschini, from the consulting firm F2, to Infobae: "The market is closely following the news about Donald Trump's tariff policies . This and the new tensions with Ukraine over the conflict with Russia caused the euro, the yuan and emerging currencies to weaken. The Republican leader continues to generate volatility, but even so the S&P 500 managed to record a rise of 0.24%."

The consulting firm F2 added that, in terms of liquidity, "contrary to expectations, the Government's deposits in the Central Bank increased after the payment of the $1.43 trillion that were not renewed in the last tender. The Government decided to increase deposits in the BCRA by $2.2 trillion without this increasing the Monetary Base, probably by transferring funds from other banks to the BCRA."

In the futures market, positions supporting the Government in its macroeconomic management are maintained. However, financial dollars have not fallen below $1,200, and the gap with the CCL is at 14%.

Faced with an uncertain international scenario, the market continues to cling to the IMF, without finding new incentives to increase its investments in bonds and stocks, which is reflected in a country risk that exceeds 700 points.