Dollar today: Peso holds up, but real economy strained by tariffs

Despite the serious US tariff threat, the Mexican peso showed surprising stability, closing the day at an average of 18.64 per dollar. This apparent calm in the financial markets contrasts sharply with the alarm bells already ringing in the real economy, where industries such as the automotive industry are beginning to take preventive measures.

In the financial markets, Saturday, July 12, was marked by a deceptive calm. The exchange rate of the Mexican peso against the US dollar remained virtually stable, with an average price of 18.64 pesos per dollar at bank counters. The exchange rate to settle obligations (FIX), determined by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico), stood at 18.6267 pesos per unit.

This stability suggests that foreign exchange market participants are adopting a "wait and see" stance, possibly discounting the threat of 30% US tariffs as a negotiating tactic that will be resolved diplomatically before August 1. However, beneath this surface of calm, the country's productive economy is already showing unmistakable signs of strain.

To provide our readers with a clear picture, below are the buying and selling prices of the dollar at the country's major banking institutions, respectively.

• BBVA Bancomer 17.58 and 19.11

• Citibanamex 18.06 and 19.09

• Banco Azteca 17.45 and 19.39

Source: N+. Prices may vary throughout the day.

While the peso is holding up, sectors vital to Mexico's GDP and employment are already feeling the impact of uncertainty. The clearest sign came from the automotive sector, where General Motors announced the halt of production at its Silao plant, where the popular Silverado and Sierra pickup trucks are assembled. This is a costly and concrete measure that reflects preparation for the worst-case scenario.

Similarly, the livestock sector, already facing health restrictions from the U.S., views the new tariff threat with extreme concern. Business leaders in the capital, represented by Canaco, have raised their voices to demand certainty and support from the government in the face of the impacts that this type of external pressure, combined with internal pressure, has had on trade.

The divergence between the calm of the foreign exchange market and the anxiety of the productive sector cannot be sustained indefinitely. Analysts warn that the stability of the peso is fragile and depends almost entirely on the success of diplomatic negotiations.

If the talks between Mexico and the United States do not advance favorably in the coming days, it is very likely that the anxiety will spread to the exchange rate, causing a depreciation of the peso. For now, the Mexican economy is experiencing two realities: markets betting on a political solution, and factories and companies already preparing for the impact of a possible trade war.